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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — There could be as many as 78 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines available by the end of 2020, according to the most optimistic timeline in leaked documents from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.But assuming that the vaccine will require two doses per individual, that figure would only be enough to inoculate the highest priority individuals, based on draft guidelines released this week from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.“We’re not even going to get through Phase 1 people” in 2020, said Dr. Mary Barger, an epidemiologist at the University of San Diego.There are an estimated 44 million people in NASEM’S Phase 1 group: frontline healthcare workers, first responders, people with multiple high-risk factors, and adults living in nursing homes and other group settings.Based on leaked CDC guidance to states published by the New York Times, if two vaccine candidates become available in October, there would be enough doses for 39 million people by the end of 2020 -- not quite enough to cover the entire Phase 1 group.If only one vaccine is available by October, the projections suggest there could be enough doses to cover 13 to 26 million people.That might only be enough for frontline healthcare workers and first responders, of which there are an estimated 17 million.Healthcare workers and first responders get the highest priority, which NASEM calls Phase 1a, so they can maintain the integrity of the healthcare system.“When there’s a pandemic, you want to make sure you have enough people to take care of those that are sick,” said Dr. Abisola Olulade of Sharp Rees-Stealy Medical Group.Phase 1b includes individuals with multiple underlying conditions, like cancer, chronic kidney disease, and serious heart conditions.Approximately 75% of adults hospitalized for COVID-19 in the U.S. between March 1 and August 15 had at least two underlying conditions, according to data from the COVID-19 Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network cited in the NASEM guidelines. More than 60% of hospitalized adults had three or more underlying conditions.“It would make sense that you would include a segment of the population that’s at risk of doing the worst,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at UC San Francisco.There are an estimated 27 million people in the Phase 1b category.Critical workers in high-risk industries like grocery store clerks, mail carriers, and bus drivers would be in Phase 2, along with teachers, homeless people, prisoners, people with moderately risky underlying conditions, and anyone over the age of 65.“Even though people 65 and older make up less than 20% of the population, there have been 80% of COVID-19 deaths in this age,” Dr. Olulade said.Risk factors including high blood pressure, liver disease, or moderate-to-severe asthma would qualify an individual for Phase 2.There are an estimated 27 million people in this phase.In Phase 3, NASEM recommends inoculating people who are at lower risk of a bad infection but may be vectors for the spread of disease, including young people and children.NASEM noted that it will be “critical to conduct additional trials to gain better understanding of safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccine among children before they receive the vaccine.” Currently, there are no COVID vaccine trials that include children.Other essential workers at moderate risk of exposure would also be included in Phase 3, including employees in restaurants, hotels, hair salons, and exercise facilities.Phase 4 includes everyone else. 3589

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The world's largest tiki party kicks off on Shelter Island Wednesday.Tiki Oasis will pack five days full of the island life, with live music and DJs, tiki vendors, a car show, seminars, and much more to satisfy your tiki fascination.Seminars include a presentation on 90 years of San Diego's local tiki history, tiki cocktail construction, storytelling, and even how to construct your own tiki.INTERACTIVE MAP: Where to celebrate San Diego's tiki sceneWednesday night, the oasis gets underway with a meet-and-mingle at the iconic Bali Hai, known in its own right for tropical drinks and vibes. The multi-day party continues at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Mission Valley, where attendees fully immerse themselves in Polynesian Pop.As seminars get underway, attendees can also peruse through a line up of tiki vendors, who have everything from jewelry to vintage clothing to houseware. Whatever you need to inject some tiki into your life.An art show featuring tiki-themed art and classic car show is also planned. Live performances from several local bands taught in the ways of righteous island vibes will also carry guests through the weekend.RELATED: San Diego speakeasy named among best tiki bars in AmericaSan Diego's celebrate tiki scene didn't pop out of thin air. While the event itself was first held in 2001 before relocating to San Diego in 2006, the interest dates back locally since Tijuana's Aloha Cafe was founded in 1928. The Bali Hai restaurant opened in 1954, further propelling the Polynesian Pop scene.Today, several establishments, like The Grass Skirt, False Idol, and Miss B's Coconut Club add to local tiki flare.More information...What: Tiki OasisWebsite: tikioasis.comWhere: Wednesday: Bali Hai on Shelter Island; Thursday - Sunday: The Crowne Plaza Hotel, Mission ValleyTickets: - 5 1840

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — This New Year’s Day organ donor heroes will be honored on the Donate Life Rose Parade Float.One of those heroes is a Everardo Martinez, a San Diego father of three whose life was cut short by a fatal aneurysm. After Martinez passed, his wife Adriana worked closely with Lifesharing San Diego to donate his organs.“It’s comforting, it’s comforting to know my husband lives on through those recipients,” said Adriana. “I’m deeply honored my husband was able to transform their lives.”Everardo was able to save three lives with his selfless gift.His wife and children traveled to Irwindale to help decorate the Lifesharing float that will honor Everardo and 43 other organ donors. Adriana also spent eight hours on a floral portrait of her husband that will be featured on the float. “It’s an honor, a true honor to be able to honor my husband’s legacy and memory,” said Adriana. Adriana says her husband wanted to make a difference, and she couldn’t be more proud of the difference he’s making.Register today to be an organ donor here. 1061

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The San Diego County Fair is a place of sights and sounds, which could deter some families with adults and children with autism, PTSD, and other sensory-sensitive conditions to pass on the yearly festival.To help provide those families with the same fun at the fair, organizers will offer sensory stations and free sensory toolkits, containing noise-canceling headphones, fidgets, weighted lap pads, and other tools.Fair organizers teamed with KultureCity, which has implemented sensory-inclusion programs at public venues around the country, including for the NFL and NBA. This is the first time the organization has partnered with a fair.FAIR COVERAGE: 691

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — There's tons of fun throughout San Diego to welcome back warmer temps!NAT at Night invites the public out to Balboa Park for half-priced admission at the Natural History Museum, while the Summer Kickoff Concert with the San Diego Youth Symphony serenades visitors as they enjoy the beginning of Food Truck Fridays and other late-night museum promotions.The San Diego County Fair returns this week as well, bringing a month's-worth of fairgrounds fun to Del Mar for the next month. This year's "Wizard of Oz" theme promises to bring loads of "Oz-some" activities, exhibitions, and foods to the fairgrounds.MORE: Don't see anything you like? Check out our event calendar for even more local eventsThe Rock n' Roll Marathon also returns to San Diego this weekend, as one of the area's most popular runs takes over the streets of downtown and into Balboa Park.Check out more happenings around San Diego County this weekend:THURSDAYNAT at NightWhere: San Diego Natural History Museum; Cost: Half price admission after 5 p.m.Experience the Natural History Museum after dark, at NAT at Night. Admission is available for half price at 5 p.m. The NAT's rooftop bar offers one of the best views of Balboa Park and immersive exhibitions, pop-up programs, and a new escape room is available for guests to enjoy.Seadragons & SeahorsesWhere: Birch Aquarium at Scripps; Cost: .50 - Check out the beautiful underwater world of seahorses and seadragons at Birch Aquarium's new exhibit. At the center: One of the world's largest seadragon habitats in the world, containing 5,375 gallons of water and numerous creatures swimming along.FRIDAYSan Diego County FairWhere: Del Mar Fairgrounds; Cost: Free - It's fair season once again in Del Mar, as the San Diego County Fair returns under the theme of "Oz-Some," featuring the "Wizard of Oz." Several hit acts are set to take the big stage to deliver laughs and tunes, while there's plenty of other traditional fair fun (Swifty Swine pig races, anyone?) Plus, plenty of exhibits showcasing works by local San Diegans will be on display, and of course, fair food!Summer Kickoff ConcertWhere: Balboa Park Plaza de Panama; Cost: FreeCelebrate summer with the 2nd annual San Diego Youth Symphony's open-air concert in Balboa Park. The concert coincides with the start of Food Truck Fridays and Friday Night Alive! museum promotions at Balboa Park for the summer. Bring a picnic and enjoy the live entertainment.SATURDAYSan Diego Bay FestivalWhere: Embarcadero Marina Park North; Cost: Bask in the San Diego sun and enjoy delicious bites from local restaurants, craft beers from nearby breweries, local art and vendors, and live entertainment from Slightly Stoopid, Tribal Seeds, Fortunate Youth,, Don Carlos, Hiries, and Band of Gringos during San Diego Bay Festival.Art Around AdamsWhere: Adams Avenue; Cost: FreeStroll through Adams Avenue for two miles of art, music, and entertainment during Art Around Adams. The free event invites San Diegans to experience local art and cuisine along Adams Avenue while checking out street artists, exhibits, and a kids zone.Water Lantern FestivalWhere: Kit Carson Park; Cost: - Send off beautifully lit lanterns you decorate yourself on Chollas Lake in this family-friendly event that includes delicious food, music, and activities for everyone. The festival has also been named the Best Cultural Festival by USA TODAY 10Best Readers' Choice Awards, so you know it's an event you'll remember.SUNDAYRock n' Roll Marathon San DiegoWhere: Downtown San Diego; Cost: - 2Runners take your start! The Rock n' Roll Marathon returns to San Diego, bringing runners out for a 5K on Saturday, and half- and full marathon on Sunday. The routes take runners throughout downtown San Diego and Balboa Park, leading to a finish blocks from the waterfront.RB Alive Street FairWhere: Rancho Bernardo; Cost: FreeRB's Bernardo Center Drive fills up with more than 300 vendor booths for the 31st annual RB Alive! Street Fair, packed with arts and crafts, food vendors, and more from local businesses. A specia lkdis zone also offers activities and games for children.El Camino Memorial Park Classic Car ShowWhere: El Camino Memorial Park; Cost: Free to the publicCheck out the amazing automobiles and hot rods, including an appearance by The Hot Rod Trio, during the El Camino Memorial Park Classic Car Show, raising funds for The Garden of Innocence, an organization that provides burials for abandoned infants. 4508