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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

At Tivoli Brewing Company, canning beer has gone from celebratory to an almost sobering experience.“This sucks,” said Ethan Tsai, Tivoli brewery director.Tsai says Tivoli and other breweries across the country are suffering from an aluminum can shortage.“We don’t have enough cans, we’re not going to be able to sell enough beer,” he said. “This is going to be a financial pinch to a whole lot of people.”On a normal week, Tivoli would turn out almost 400 cases of beer. During the last few of weeks, however, they’re struggling to get out 100.“Sales is going to suffer,” Tsai said. “And if sales suffer, then our ability to survive is going to be jeopardized.”Experts say there are several reasons for this shortage in cans. More people are stocking up on beer in stores and taking it home during the COVID crisis and less customers are going out to bars and restaurants.Whatever the case, production of cans isn’t keeping up with the demand.“For the year 2020,” Tsai said, “Ball (Corporation) is estimating approximately 10 billion, that’s billion with a “B”, aluminum can shortage."Ball Corporation is one of the world’s leading aluminum can providers. It’s responding to the recent surge in demand for cans by expanding its operations and building two news production plants which they say should be completed by 2021.“It might mean that some brewers get less revenue and have to make more difficult choices,” said Bart Watson, chief economist with the Brewers Association, an organization representing thousands of craft breweries across the country.He says cans make up a majority of craft beer packaged sales and that this shortage of could cost companies money and employees their jobs.“It’s tough to see the small brewers, who put so much sweat equity into their businesses, be brought down by really something that not their fault,” Watson said. “First the pandemic and now these additional challenges like a shortage.”Back at the brewery, Tsai is trying to figure out how to logistically juggle this shortage of cans during a pandemic to make sure his staff still have jobs and that this brewery survives.“We are all in this together,” he said. “None of us benefit from just taprooms suddenly disappearing.” 2226

Authorities are using the recent arrest of a registered sex offender as a reminder for parents to monitor their children’s candy this Halloween season.Detectives with the Santa Barbara County Special Investigations Bureau and the Cannabis Compliance Team pulled over a driver Wednesday afternoon in Santa Maria, California.The driver was identified as Christian Sandez of Santa Maria. The Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s Office says inside his van they found “a large amount of packaged cannabis infused candy, processed cannabis flower, concentrated cannabis and cannabis vape products, which he possessed for the purpose of sales.”The 28-year-old, who is on active parole, does not have a California Bureau of Cannabis Control retail or sales license, according to the sheriff’s office.Sandez was arrested on suspicion of possession of marijuana, which is a felony, and booked into the Santa Barbara County Jail where he is being held without bail for violating his parole, the sheriff’s office says.The sheriff’s office says cannabis-infused products “are intentionally packaged to resemble normal candy and can easily be mistaken” and they are encouraging parents to monitor their children’s candy, especially around Halloween.This story originally reported on KSBY.com. 1282

As we focus on getting kids safely back to school this year, Nashville-area builders are trying to figure out how to limit the impact of potential future pandemic years down the road, which may require permanently changing the look of new schools, offices, and hospitals."Yes, we are definitely seeing clients ask questions," said Matthew Griffith, an architect with Gould Turner Group."Things like the materials we specify, how cleanable they are, rounded corners in rooms and antimicrobial surfaces," Griffith said.Griffith says with the thought of a future pandemic in mind — segmented spaces could be the norm for new schools."I think you will see a big focus on true flexible space, have demountable partitions and movable walls to where it can be segmented or more individualized on an as-needed basis," Griffith said.And that idea extends beyond school buildings. Griffith says the same can apply to hospitals and other office spaces."I think it's going to be common in a lot of designs to have dedicated spaces for temperature checks and things of that nature," Griffith said.A large building's heating and cooling system will likely be a large focus, according to Griffith. Rather than circulating air throughout the whole building, individual units may be able to keep the air within smaller areas in case of an outbreak.Schools have been through similar kinds of building trends before. In the early 2000s, it was all about security and hindering active shooters. Just like those changes, Griffith says COVID-19 will likely leave its mark on big building blueprints.WTVF's Jason Lamb first reported this story. 1629

At the Denny’s along US 1 in Port St. Lucie, is one customer everyone knows.Not a lot of people turn 100, and not a lot of people eat at the same place day after day, for decades.Sister Marie Alice Lagace was greeted with a rendition of Happy Birthday on the trumpet Tuesday.“She always has a kind word and a gentle way of always making you feel good," said Denny's General Manager Maurice Warrington.Port St. Lucie Mayor Greg Oravec offered a proclamation and a funny gift — a ruler with the city logo.But the biggest honor would be fixed to her usual booth in back, a booth now renamed for her.“I just love it and I find the beauty in all of these people," Lagace said.Parishioners from Holy Family Catholic Church take turns driving her here, and they can’t take her anywhere else.“Some of them ask me, 'We’re going to eat somewhere,  you coming with us?' Nope. I’m coming here," Lagace said.She orders the same thing every day: one egg, a piece of toast, grape jelly and coffee — although Tuesday, cake was the substitute. Parishioners who ask her the secret to a healthy, long, life get a simple answer.“Love God, smile, relax," said Aleen Stanton with Holy Family. Sister Marie Alice has been on mission trips around the globe. But for the past 25 years, her daily trip has been to see her friends off US 1.“The idea is we’re together. And God is in you and God is in me.”Denny's gave her a gift card they hope she can use for another hundred years. 1573