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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

ATLANTA (AP) — Two more Atlanta police officers have been fired over an incident in which two college students were pulled from a car during a protest against police brutality.Atlanta police confirmed Wednesday that Sgt. Lonnie Hood and Officer Armon Jones were fired as a result of their involvement in the May 30 incident.Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and police Chief Erika Shields previously announced the firing of two other officers who were involved in the incident.Hood and Jones were among the officers caught on camera shouting at a young couple in a car in downtown traffic during the Black Lives Matter protests. The cops then proceeded to fire Tasers at the pair and dragged them from the vehicle.Throughout the incident, the man and woman can be heard screaming and asking what they did wrong.The four officers who have been fired and two other cops are facing criminal charges in connection with the altercation.Hood is charged with aggravated assault against both Young and Pilgrim for using a Taser against both of them, according to an arrest warrant obtained by The Associated Press. He is also charged with simple battery for violently pulling Pilgrim from the car and throwing her down on to the street, the warrant says.Jones is charged with aggravated battery for hurting Young’s left arm when he dragged him from the car and slammed him onto the street, the warrant says. He also is charged with pointing a gun at Young. Young suffered a fractured arm and a gash requiring two dozen stitches. 1529

Authorities in Maine have confirmed that remains of a woman found Friday are those of a teacher who had been missing for almost a week.The body of Kristin Westra was discovered near her home in a wooded area in North Yarmouth, Maine, the Cumberland County Sheriff's Department said. Authorities said Sunday they have determined she committed suicide.Westra, 47, disappeared Monday in the Portland suburb of 3,600 residents. 431

AVON PARK -- A traffic stop in Avon Park, Florida, on Sunday led to what the Highlands County Sheriff's Office calls one of the largest drug seizures in recent memory in their county. Deputies confiscated enough fentanyl to kill nearly 40,000 people, as well as over a pound of heroin and nearly a pound of cocaine.Around 7:40 p.m., Deputy Seth Abeln saw a blue Ford Focus on North Central Avenue that had a tag light out. After Abeln stopped the vehicle, Deputy Ben Jones and K-9 Gentry were called to do a free air sniff of the vehicle. According to the sheriff's office, Gentry indicated there were drugs in the car.A search of the vehicle turned up:● 554 grams of heroin● 450 grams of cocaine● 99.6 grams of fentanyl● 975 oxycodone pills● 107 Xanax pills● 90 vape pens with liquid THCThe sheriff's office says a dose of 2-3 milligrams of fentanyl is enough to be deadly, meaning there was enough of the drug to kill 40,000 people using 2.5 milligrams as a fatal dose. To put that in perspective, that would be enough to kill nearly 40 percent of the people in Highlands County.The street value of the fentanyl is ,000. Add that to the ,000 of cocaine, ,000 of oxycodone and ,000 of heroin, and the total seizure is worth 0,000 on the street, not including the value of the vape pens.There was also a loaded handgun inside the car. deputies say. The driver, 40-year-old Ruben Ramirez-Rivera, was arrested and charged with:● trafficking cocaine● trafficking heroin● trafficking oxycodone● trafficking a controlled substance● possession of opium or a derivative (fentanyl) with intent to sell/deliver● possession of a Schedule III or IV drug with intent to sell/deliver● possession of heroin with intent to sell/deliver● possession of cocaine with intent to sell/deliver● felony possession of marijuana● possession of a weapon during commission of a first-degree felony● possession of drug equipmentRivera is being held without bond at the Highlands County Jail.“I’m very proud of the work done by the deputies involved in this arrest,” Sheriff Paul Blackman said. “To take this amount of drugs off the street is a huge accomplishment, and our county is safer because of it.”This article was written by Dan Trujillo for WFTS. 2249

Authorities in Costa Rica say that a body has been found on the Airbnb property where missing Florida woman, 36-year-old Carla Stefaniak, was staying.Costa Rica's Judicial Investigation Agency (OIJ) tells WFTS that the body was buried in a mountainous area located in the back of the property, less than 200 feet away from where Stefaniak had been staying. OIJ agents had been searching the area with specialized dogs. At this time, authorities have not been able to confirm that the body is Stefaniak.In Spanish, Walter Espinoza, the director general of the OIJ said, “the body was in a state of decomposition but the preliminary observation does verify the body is a woman.”In a press conference on Monday, Espinoza said that biological fluids consistent with blood were discovered inside the Airbnb property. The blood has been sent to labs for testing.The body cannot be positively identified by officials until an autopsy is performed.Stefaniak hasn't been seen or heard from since Tuesday, November 27. She traveled to Costa Rica with her sister-in-law, April Burton, on November 22 to celebrate her birthday. Burton flew back on November 27. Stefaniak had plans to return to the United States on November 28, bound for Florida, but never arrived for her flight. She checked into her Airbnb, located at Calle Hoja Blanca in San Antonio de Escazú, for one night on November 27. According to Burton, the last thing they knew about Stefaniak was that she was inside that Airbnb on the night of November 27. The last time Burton spoke to Stefaniak, she told her that it was raining crazy and the power went out. She continued with, "it's pretty sketchy here," according to Burton.The final photograph Stefaniak sent family members was from inside the Airbnb. Family members shared the image with WFTS, seen below.</p><p>"The guards (at the apartment complex that housed the Airbnb) told us that she left at 5 in the morning with all of her bags and got into an Uber. She wouldn’t do that, her flight was at 1:30 p.m. She’s never been early for anything in her life she wouldn’t leave to go to the airport at 5:30 a.m.," Burton said.The Airbnb listing for "Villa Buena Vista" has since been removed from Airbnb's website.WFTS spoke to Airbnb officials, who say they have reached out to Carla's family as well as the FBI, OIJ and the local embassy.Stefaniak's brother flew down to Costa Rica on Friday to search for his sister. Her father flew down to Costa Rica on Monday afternoon.This is a developing news story and will be updated as more information becomes available. 2718