梅州做处女膜修补要花多少钱梅州盆腔炎是什么引起,梅州月经量少去医院查什么,梅州人流真的痛吗,梅州人工打胎大概要多少钱,梅州打胎一次需要多少钱,梅州脸部拉皮多少钱,梅州引起附件炎的原因是什么

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The addition of 536 new homes on a former golf course in Rancho Penasquitos won't clog the one road leading out of the neighborhood in the event of an emergency evacuation, according to a new city study. The city released the environmental impact reporter for Lennar's Juniper proposal on Wednesday. Lennar is proposing to turn the languishing course behind the old Hotel Karlan on Penasquitos Drive into 536 housing units for senior citizens, including 81 affordable. The project also includes a nearly three acre public park, a three-mile trail. The environmental document analyzes impacts such as noise and traffic. It also looked at how the additional homes would impact evacuations in the northeast portion of Rancho Penasquitos, a neighborhood with only one road in and out. The document said there would be a less than significant impact on getting out fast for two reasons - first, a wildfire that starts in the Black Mountain Open Space park to the west would be blown away from the site by Santa Ana winds. Secondly, the site is not prone to wildfire because it is protected by developed terrain. "As part of the EIR, a fire risk analysis determined potential impacts related to wildfire hazards from implementation of the project would be less than significant and the project’s Wildland Fire Evacuation Plan demonstrates that timely evacuation of the site is feasible and would be improved by the additional roadway and emergency egress connections provided by the project," said city spokesman Anthony Santacroce. Additionally, plans call for adding a road into and out of the Juniper complex from Carmel Mountain Road, with emergency access. It would add a traffic light and roundabout to Penasquitos Drive, and improve an emergency access road on the opposite side of the neighborhood. Still, a group of residents is raising concerns that the Juniper project, combined with another potential 350 on the hotel site, would clog the one road leaving the area. Junaid Razvi, who heads the Penasquitos Northeast Action Group, noted Santa Ana winds are unpredictable and has had to evacuate three times in the last 15 years. "To put it mildly, I don't think we're getting the whole picture here," said Razvi. "We are not nimbys. I think the development has to be sensible terms of density, the access, ingress and egress points."Razvi's group said it plans to meet with Councilman Mark Kersey in the next few weeks to air their concerns. In a statement, the councilman said he understands where they are coming from. "Given our region's history, I understand and share residents' concerns about wildfire preparedness," he said. "Nothing is more important to me than public safety, especially when it comes to fire risk, and fire safety will be a primary concern when I evaluate any development proposal that comes before the City Council for approval."San Diegans have until April 6 to submit their comments on the EIR. 2957

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The man accused of shooting two people outside a Metallica concert in the Gaslamp, including an off-duty sheriff’s deputy was back in court Tuesday.In July Ray Pitoau had his first trial. He was found guilty of three firearm charges, including felon in possession of a gun.The jury deadlocked when charging him with three counts of assault with a deadly weapon. The District Attorney’s Office refiled for a retrial.RELATED: Gaslamp deputy shooting suspect escapes Spring Valley SWAT standoffA few months later that retrial is in session and Pitoau now faces potential life in prison for allegedly shooting sheriff’s deputy Jason Philpot three times, aiming the gun at his brother, Joshua Philpot and shooting and hitting a third person walking by.During his testimony Tuesday, Pitoau tells the jury he didn’t intent on actually firing the gun. "When I see the gun it was like okay you know what I mean, just show it to these guys. It be like okay split parts, I run this way they run that way. It be cool," Pitoau said.Pitoau was asked by the defense attorney and prosecutor to recollect the night of August 7, 2017. The night he got into an altercation with the Philpot brothers and it ended in shots fired.RELATED: Suspect in Gaslamp shooting that injured off-duty deputy arrested in MexicoWhen Pitoau grabbed the gun from his friend that night he tells the jurors he didn’t think Jason Philpot in law enforcement and would know how to remove a gun from a shooter.“I had it in my right hand his left hand cam over my hand and his right hand came under my hand,” Pitoau continued. “So he grabbed the whole thing like he close don it so he started twisting my wrist." Pitoau went over the entire night and even included details of fleeing the country after he saw the shooting on the news the next morning. “I took off to Mexico, well I cut my hair, shaved my beard and then I walked to the trolley station and went to Mexico."After a month in Tijuana he was brought back to the United States and immediately handed over to U.S. Marshals. The retrial will continue Wednesday. 2143

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The first round of artists for San Diego’s Wonderfront music festival, supported by the star power of Tony Hawk, Trevor Hoffman, and Rob Machado, was announced Monday. The event will take place on seven stages in parks and on piers along the Port of San Diego, from South Embarcadero up to Broadway Pier. Wonderfront is scheduled for Nov. 22-24, 2019, the weekend before Thanksgiving. Wonderfront organizers plan to mix well-known stars with local favorites and emerging artists. “Our goal with this lineup was to have it stacked from start to finish each day with great artists. It’s hard to really call any certain bands our so-called headliners as so many lines of bands on this festival are all headliners in their own right,” said Wonderfront co-founder Paul Thornton. The first round of artists, announced Monday, include Miguel, Slightly Stoopid, Ben Harper & The Innocent Criminals, MGMT, Dimitri Vegas & Like Mike, Nicky Jam, Don Omar, Vince Staples, Tyga, Los Angeles Azules, Tucanes de Tijuana, Walk the Moon, Phantogram, X Ambassadors, Michael Franti & Spearhead, Lil Dicky, Big Gigantic, and Pennywise. A second round of artists will be named later in the summer, organizers said. North County resident Tony Hawk will have a presence at the festival with the Huckjam stage for music and a skateboarding ramp, where he and other pro skaters will perform tricks. “I’m excited to bring back the Huckjam format (choreographed and freestyle skating with live music) after 10 years of hiatus, and there is no better place for it than my hometown. I’m proud to be involved with Wonderfront, and it’s been a blast helping handpick the legendary punk bands for our stage.” Tony Hawk, Wonderfront Festival Partner. Tickets go on sale Friday, June 14 at 10 a.m. and start at 9 for a three-day pass, according to organizers. Subscribers to the festival’s WonderLIST will have access to pre-sale Early Bird discounts June 7.Get more information on the Wonderfront website. 2014

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Surveillance video captures a burglar on the move inside a popular restaurant in Mira Mesa, and his crimes may be escalating.Inside the kitchen of T.P. Bahn Bao on Camino Ruiz, the staff is busy making steamed Vietnamese buns, days after an unappetizing discovery. "Scared, anxiety, disbelief," said Travis Nguyen, who owns the restaurant.When she got in on Thursday morning, she found loose change all over and the drawer of the cash register gone. The surveillance video revealed what happened. Just before 3 a.m., a figure is seen crouched low, shining a flashlight into the restaurant. After a few moments, the man pries open the door and walks in."It appeared he used a homemade tool to break the panic bar. It took him only a few seconds to get in," said Lon Holliday of Convoy Street Locksmith, the company that repaired the door.In the video, the man quickly heads to the cash register, removes the drawer and about 0 in cash."He knows what he's doing. I think he's done this before," said Nguyen. After the thief is done in the front - and with a loud security alarm going off - the intruder heads towards the kitchen, where he looks around. He then goes into the walk-in cooler. He apparently doesn't like what he sees and takes off."He's in and out of the restaurant in under two minutes. He's quick," said Nguyen. It's an elusive quality residents in the a nearby neighborhood are familiar with. Amid of a rash of porch and package thefts, one homeowner sent 10news video of a man on a bike she saw stealing a car jack from a porch two weeks ago. The man does resemble the intruder. If it's the same man who broke into the restaurant, he's getting bolder."You never know what he can do. Not only stealing stuff, he might be so desperate he might hurt people, too. Needs to be caught," said Nguyen.Anyone with information on the case is asked to call San Diego Police at 619-531-2000. 1926