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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

OLATHE, Kan. — A group of Kansas students is working to lower suspension rates in school by lowering the suspension on cars. And the teens have now teamed up with local police to make it happen.Adrian Vilches, also known as "Shorty," sat down with KSHB to discuss a tall task. His mom was even in a state of shock over this. "Honestly she started crying. She didn't believe I would make it to work with cops in this kind of way," Vilches said.Vilches and several other teens expressed excitement over a new partnership with the Olathe Police Department. Erik Erazo is the brainchild behind this club. He currently serves as the migrant director and Hispanic student advisor for the Olathe School District. “We started a club in 2016 with a few lowrider bikes we were building,” Erazo said.Erazo said that’s how the Olathe Lowrider Bike Club got off the ground. “Lowriding, as far as a lot of people are concerned, it’s a car, it’s hydraulics, it’s paint, it’s murals and it is all of that," Erazo said. "But lowriding to us is a lifestyle. It’s kind of our Chicano way of living, Hispanic-American way.”The students spend a few hours a day every week turning bikes into something much more. They did such a good job “tricking out” the bikes, the Olathe Police Department got in on the fun. The department donated an old squad car to be converted into a lowrider. “It’s gonna have all the bells and whistles,” said Sgt. Logan Bonney.  “And we’re gonna give them [the students] the ability to make it their own.”Vilches agrees that the program offers so much for the students. “If I didn’t have the program, I’d probably be doing something dumb right now. Probably in the back of a police car, but now this is what keeps me moving forward," said Vilches.Christian Gutierrez is another student who sees the many benefits of the program. In addition to learning about cars, he’s also building a relationship with police he never imagined possible. “We’re trying to change that relationship," said Gutierrez. "The black and brown side have always had a bad relationship with police and we’re trying to change that”The teens have placed their work on display at car and bike shows across the Kansas City metro area. They eventually want to help and donate to other kids in need. Perhaps what’s most impressive is that every high school senior in the program last year graduated and is now in college. “I did not ever believe in a thousand years I’d be working with cops or anything,” said Vilches. "And now look at us here. We’re working together, making a better community.” It’s a program the Olathe Police Department wants to continue for several years. “It’s a way for us to really get out to the community in a different way,” said Bonney.  “You don’t build relationships during a crisis. You build it beforehand.”Materials used for the Lowrider Club are funded by donations via the Olathe Police Foundation. If you’d like to help out, click here. 3104

One of the largest anti-smoking groups is now going after cigarette makers for their trash.The Truth Initiative released a new video in an effort to combat the littering of cigarette butts. It debuted nationally last week during the MTV Video Music Award.The organization is tying this latest campaign into their public petition to get more businesses and public places to go smoke-free.Cigarette butts are the most littered item on the planet, and it’s the most picked up item from beaches all over the world.They contain hundreds of chemicals that show up in wildlife and waterways. The butts are made with a type of plastic that can take a decade or more to decompose.Cigarette makers have tried cleaning up their act over the years, but so far, nothing has really made a dent.There is a startup company that claims to have a biodegradable cigarette filter, which breaks down in a matter of days. The company says they are in talks with cigarette makers and are currently looking for a partner to start manufacturing the green filters. 1046

OCOTILLO WELLS, Calif. (KGTV) --  A swarm of earthquakes is once again shaking the Ocotillo Wells area Sunday.The largest earthquakes to hit the area Sunday morning was a 3.5 magnitude 14 miles away from Ocotillo Wells at 4:05 a.m. That earthquake was followed by a 3.3 magnitude at 6:33 a.m. At this time, there are no reports of damage or injury. RELATED: Series of earthquakes shake Ocotillo Wells area  The eruption of small earthquakes began Saturday evening between 5 and 6 p.m. The largest of Saturday's quakes registered as a 3.5 magnitude.  587

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) - A fire broke out Tuesday morning at Fire Station 3 in Oceanside when no first responders were inside to put it out. The flames broke out in a rear dorm room on the second floor adjacent to a furnace in the wall, said Oceanside Fire Department Battalion Chief Scott Stein. People driving by saw the fire at 3101 Oceanside Blvd. and reported it, said Stein. Twenty-seven firefighters from Carlsbad and other stations in Oceanside responded to the scene to put out the fire. The five Oceanside firefighters who were on duty with Station 3 were not available at the time the flames broke out. The second floor of the station was damaged by smoke and flames, Stein said. The first floor had minimal damage. “This is really a hit to the city because it’s centrally located,” Stein said. Although Stein did not have an estimate on when repairs would be completed, he said Fire Station 3 firefighters would be displaced at least a month. “We’re relocating them to other fire stations throughout the city,” said Stein. The investigation into the cause of the fire is being handled by the Vista Fire Department. 1136