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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As states continue to count votes, one thing is clear: the pre-election polls were off again.Pollsters underestimated support for President Donald Trump by a wider margin than they did in 2016, prompting a number of theories about what went wrong and why changes adopted after the 2016 election proved ineffective.Heading into Election Day 2020, candidate Joe Biden led Trump nationally by an average of 8.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. We won’t know the final margin until all the votes are counted, but it looks like Trump’s support was underestimated by about 3.5%.That’s wider than the national popular vote miss in 2016, when the polls underestimated Trump’s support by 1.1%.“Polling emerged from 2016 with a black eye. This is fair to say a second black eye in 2020,” said Jay Leve of polling firm SurveyUSA.Leve said the industry thought it had corrected its 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate.In 2020, pollsters made sure to weigh for education level and include enough non-college-educated white voters to try to capture a representative sample of the electorate.But state polls show it didn’t work. In Ohio, there was a nearly 8-point miss. In Wisconsin, there was a nearly 10-point miss. In Florida, the polls missed by 5 points and incorrectly showed Biden in the lead.“While pollsters attempted to correct for the mistakes that they made in 2016, President Trump was busy hammering home a narrative that, number one, the media is the enemy of the people. And number two, polls are fake polls,” Leve said.Leve thinks that skepticism and distrust caused Trump supporters to ignore pollsters at a higher rate, causing them to be underrepresented in samples.San Diego State political scientist Dr. Stephen Goggin says there are other theories as well.“Between mail-in balloting, the pandemic, between all the early voting and all the confusion it creates, it’s possible some of that played a role in creating the error we saw this time,” he said.Goggin said the pandemic may have made the models used to predict voter turnout less accurate this cycle. Many surveys heading into the election showed an unusual trend: Biden was polling better among so-called “likely voters” than among registered voters overall. Typically Republicans hold an edge among likely voters, Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted.There’s also some early data suggesting once the pandemic hit, Democrats started responding to surveys more frequently, something that could have shifted the poll numbers.There may have also been issues surveying certain demographic groups. Pre-election polls showed Biden chipping away at Trump’s lead with seniors compared to 2016, but Biden actually did worse than Clinton with that demographic in certain key states. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Florida also surprised pollsters. If exit polling data shows that trend continued in other states, it might explain about one-quarter of this year’s polling error, according to the New York Times.“Many of these errors are fixable when they find out what went wrong and you can still get high-quality samples,” Goggin said.Pollsters are planning to do detailed autopsies on the election once they have final turnout data and results by precinct. Polling firms will eventually post detailed data from their results to the Roper Center for more finely tuned analysis.ABC 10News used SurveyUSA this election cycle to poll 11 state and local races. The final polls accurately predicted the winner in all 11 races, although the margins weren’t perfect.The ABC 10News/Union-Tribune scientific polls actually overestimated Trump’s support in California by about 4 points, relative to vote totals as of November 12. 3757

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- At the Sycuan Visitors Center in El Cajon, you'll find pieces of history on display. Tools, clothing, baskets, even instruments, all tracing their origin to the Kumeyaay people."We were very important in shaping this landscape, so we developed the landscape and the landscape developed us," said Ethan Banegas, who teaches Kumeyaay history and is Kumeyaay himself.The Kumeyaay people live on 12 reservations in southern California and six in Mexico. Their history is rooted deeply in the San Diego area."We have old village sites all over. Old Town, where the first mission was, was an old village called Kasoy, " Banegas explained. According to Banegas, at one point, the Kumeyaay people lived from the desert to the mountains to the ocean and numbered between 30 and 50 thousand.RELATED: Native American tribes join to celebrate life and heritage at San Diego powwowBy the late 1800s, historians estimate the Kumeyaay population had dwindled to as low as 1000. Even as numbers started to rebound, the language and music continued to fade. Banegas says at one point traditional singers had all but disappeared. However, there was a resurgence in the 1960s that continues today."We have a whole generation learning these songs that were basically gone."As for the language, there are only about a dozen speakers left in the U.S. and a few dozen more in Mexico. But there's an effort underway to teach young people and keep it alive. Banegas says a turning point for many tribes was gaming, which provided an economic solution to the severe poverty many people experienced on the reservations. Today Banegas and others are using education to keep their culture alive and hope that during this Native American heritage month, San Diegans take time to remember the people who've called this land home for thousands of years. 1849

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- As apprehensions rise to new levels, U.S. Customs and Border Protection says the U.S.-Mexico border has reached a breaking point.At the San Diego sector alone, the apprehension of unaccompanied minors rose by 80 percent from fiscal year 2018 to fiscal year 2019. Most of the minors made their way to the U.S. from Guatemala and Honduras. The number of families detained in San Diego saw the largest increase. RELATED: Nearly 300 families may have been separated before 'zero tolerance' took effect, admin saysDuring fiscal year 2018, 1,032 families were apprehended at San Diego’s border. That figure rose sharply to 8,217 so far in fiscal year 2019, an increase of nearly 700 percent. Most families also came from Guatemala and Honduras. The agency says it’s also facing more large groups. So far this fiscal year, CBP reports 70 large groups of 100 or more compared to just 13 large groups in 2018. Border Patrol Chief Brian Hastings said during Tuesday's news conference that they've seen about 2,400 fraudulent family claims from April last year to February, with some migrants falsely claiming they are under 18-years-old or saying they are family members when in reality, they are not. RELATED: Secondary border wall construction startsCBP Commissioner Kevin McAleenan released a statement following the release of the report saying in part, "We are currently facing a humanitarian and national security crisis along our southwest border." Read the full statement below: 1506

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Border Patrol agents say they found human remains in the Tijuana River Valley early Saturday.The agents discovered the human remains near the Tijuana River just before 8:20 a.m. on Dairy Mart Road and Clear Water Way, according to City News Service and Chief Patrol Agent Douglas Harrison.The investigation was turned over to the San Diego Police Department's homicide detectives. 10News has reached out to San Diego Police, but have yet to hear back.No further information was immediately available.City News Service contributed to this report. 572

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Basic needs can be challenging to meet for homeless families or those living in shelters. As schools resume for students, distance learning can be even harder. Father Joes Villages is helping homeless students thrive this school year."We work with a population that is customarily at a disadvantage and has greater challenges, especially during these times of the pandemic," says Deacon Jim Vargas.It's been a challenge for the kids who aren't able to go to school. "In a sense, distance learning has isolated them even more," says Jennifer Ryan with the Therapeutic Children's Center at Father Joe's Villages."They don't have the financial resources, technological resources, other resources like those families that have homes," adds Vargas.The Therapeutic Children's Center provides a space for students to do their work."We have about 100 children that are in school. That's kindergarten all the way to 17-year-olds," says Ryan.Laptops and tablets are usually given to students by their schools. Father Joe's Villages makes sure they have access to the internet, school supplies, and more.Deacon Vargas says without the right intervention, these students are likely to repeat a grade or worse. "We know statistically that they are four times more likely to be homeless in adulthood."Father Joe's Villages has launched a new distance learning initiative to continue to provide resources to students. 1430