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The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The ongoing feud between the National Rifle Association and the medical community continues in wake of a shooting at a Chicago hospital Monday.A recent article published earlier this month by physicians called gun violence a public health crisis and called for tougher gun laws. In response, the NRA tweeted that doctors should “stay in their lane.”The NRA’s response received backlash, with doctors across the U.S. and abroad expressing their disdain using the hashtag #ThisisMyLane, often with graphic images giving a glimpse into emergency rooms after treating victims of gun violence.Monday, gun violence became personal for doctors and nurses at Mercy Hospital in Chicago after a shooter entered, killing an ER doctor, a pharmacy resident and a Chicago Police Officer.Now, another group of doctors are pushing back against the NRA. In an editorial published by the Annals of Internal Medicine, doctors say they won’t be silenced in using what they learn to better care for their patients.“The NRA does not believe firearm-related injury and its prevention is within the purview of physicians. We could not disagree more,” read the editorial in part.The NRA has accused doctors of pushing a gun control agenda. 1222

The original Oktoberfest can be traced back to the early 19th century in Munich, Germany.Since then, cities across the United States celebrate the festival of German heritage.WalletHub compared the 100 largest U.S. cities based on 23 indicators of Oktoberfest friendliness and fun, and chances are, you can find one of these celebrations near you. 355

The old king of mobile messaging is coming after the new king.BlackBerry filed a lawsuit in California on Tuesday against Facebook, along with its subsidiaries WhatsApp and Instagram, for infringing on its messaging patents.BlackBerry claims in the lawsuit that the social media companies developed messaging applications that "co-opt BlackBerry's innovations" by using patented features touching on security, the user interface, and battery life."We have a strong claim that Facebook has infringed on our intellectual property, and after several years of dialogue, we also have an obligation to our shareholders to pursue appropriate legal remedies," a spokesperson for BlackBerry said in a statement provided to CNN.Facebook brushed off the suit as little more than a desperate move from a fading company."Blackberry's suit sadly reflects the current state of its messaging business," Paul Grewal, Facebook's deputy general counsel, said in a statement. "Having abandoned its efforts to innovate, BlackBerry is now looking to tax the innovation of others. We intend to fight."Related: Is BlackBerry making a comeback?BlackBerry was an early leader in the messaging market with the success of its smartphones and BlackBerry Messenger product in the mid-2000s.The patents cited in the lawsuit describe foundational elements of today's messaging services. One patent deals with notifications for the total number of unread messages. Other patents address photo tagging and messaging time stamps.BlackBerry is seeking unspecified monetary damages. It also appears to be seeking a partnership."As a cybersecurity and embedded software leader, BlackBerry's view is that Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp could make great partners in our drive toward a securely connected future," the spokesperson said in the statement. "We continue to hold this door open to them."The-CNN-Wire? & ? 2018 Cable News Network, Inc., a Time Warner Company. All rights reserved. 1965

The great outdoors can be a great escape physically and emotionally.For a select group of first responders, outdoor adventures can provoke feelings that they desperately need while also providing peace of mind during this pandemic and political season.“My mind is actually blank and relaxed for once because I don’t think I’ve had this since everything has started,” said a pharmacist attending Hero Recharge, free outdoor adventures provided by the nonprofit group First Descents.This program started 20 years ago when the group’s founder took his aunt, who was diagnosed with cancer, out kayaking. Her time on the river was an important part on her recovery process.Since then, First Descents has grown to an international movement with major sponsors such as the Dunkin' Joy in Childhood Foundation, VF Foundation, Basepoint Foundation, and Samberg Family Foundation.Fist Descents is serving those suffering from cancer and multiple sclerosis through activities like surfing, kayaking and rock climbing. This year, they’re now helping health care workers impacted by the COVID-19 crisis.Nurse practitioner Marybeth Spinos has volunteered with the First Descents for the past several years and says the camaraderie outside of the workplace can help health care workers step away from their stresses and fears about being on the front lines.“What’s so beautiful about these opportunities is that you can be with people who really get it,” Spinos said.That includes people like emergency room nurse Emily Lanier, who’s disappointed with the handling of the crisis, especially with a recent surge in new COVID cases nationwide.“We’ve already been through this and now we know a lot more and we’re still going through it,” she said. “We just don’t know when this is going to end and so it’s kind of hard to picture any kind of future.”Being out of the hospital and in nature does help these health care workers heal physically and emotionally.“Just being out here, away from it all, just kind of puts everything out of my mind,” said pharmacist Troy Chunkapura.He says sharing similar environmental experiences with others in the medical community gives him hope.“We’re in this together,” Chunkapura said. “There is a light at the end of the tunnel and we’re going to get through this.” 2292