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The Dow fell more than 800 points Wednesday after the bond market, for the first time in over a decade, flashed a warning signal that has an eerily accurate track record for predicting recessions.Here's what happened: The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell below 1.6% Wednesday morning, dropping just below the yield of the 2-year Treasury bond. It marked the first time since 2007 that 10-year bond yields fell below 2-year yields.US stocks fell as investors sold stock in companies and moved it into bonds. The Dow was about 2.8% lower. The broader S&P 500 was also down 2.8% and the Nasdaq sank 3.1% Wednesday.CNN Business' Fear and Greed Index signaled investors were fearful. The VIX volatility index spiked 26%.Investors are on edge because the German economy shrank in the second quarter, and the US-China trade war still looms large over markets despite the latest truce. Industrial production in China grew at the weakest rate in 17 years in July.As the global economy sputters, investors are plowing money into long-term US bonds. The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 2.05%, the lowest rate on record.Government bonds — particularly US Treasuries — are classic "safe-haven" assets that investors like to hold in their portfolios when they're nervous about the economy. Stocks, by contrast, are riskier assets that tend to be more volatile during economic slowdowns.Gold, another safe-haven asset, rose 1% Wednesday.Here's what this all means: Normally, long-term bonds pay out more than short-term bonds because investors demand to be paid more to tie up their money for a long time. But that key "yield curve" inverted on Wednesday. That means investors are nervous about the near-term prospects for the US economy. Bonds and yields trade in opposite directions, so yields sink when investors buy bonds.Part of the yield curve has been inverted for several months. In March, the yield on the 3-month Treasury bill rose above the rate on the 10-year Treasury note for the first time since 2007. It inverted again on July 24 and has remained negative. But Wednesday marked the first time in over a decade that the "main" yield curve — the 2-year / 10-year ratio — had inverted.That spooked Wall Street, because an inversion of the 2/10 curve has preceded every recession in modern history. That doesn't mean a recession is imminent, however: The Great Recession started nearly two years after the December 2005 yield-curve inversion.William Foster, Moody's lead US analyst, predicts the US economy will avoid a recession in 2019 and in 2020, despite the yield curve inversion's warning sign. He expects growth to slow in the second half this year into 2020.The US economy remains strong: Unemployment is historically low, consumer spending is booming, and the financial system is healthy."Even though we're discouraged by the yield curve's shape right now, we see few signs of danger ahead," said John Lynch, LPL Research chief investment strategist, in a blog post.Stocks have grown volatile lately, with the Dow plunging and rising more than 350 points in each session this week. But the yield curve inversion doesn't mean the stock market is about to collapse. The S&P 500 has rallied 22% on average between the first time a yield curve inverts and the start of a recession, Lynch noted.Following the last yield curve inversion in 2005, stocks rose for 12 straight months. 3400
The new virus is taking a broader toll on airline travel. Most airlines have already stopped flying to China.Now Delta Air Lines is sharply cutting back on flights between the U.S. and Seoul, South Korea, and Hawaiian Airlines is suspending all its flights to Seoul because of the outbreak. Delta said Wednesday it will suspend flights between Minneapolis and Seoul beginning this weekend and lasting until at least April 30. The airline will also reduce the number of flights from Korea to Atlanta, Detroit and Seattle. Delta, United and American have already suspended all flights to and from mainland China and Hong Kong for several more weeks. 660
The 17-year-old traveled 250 miles with a bloody mouth, broken teeth and a hole in his jaw, trekking from a small town in Nevada to a pediatric hospital in Utah with his mother. There, doctors rushed him into surgery, working to reconstruct and repair shattered bone.What he told doctors shocked them: The boy was vaping when, without warning, his e-cigarette exploded in his face. The freak accident, described in a case study published Wednesday, is just one of 476
The House Rules Committee met on Tuesday to decide on the process for Wednesday's House session, which will likely result in the impeachment of President Donald Trump. By a 9-4 party line vote, the Rules Committee decided that there will be six hours of debate on the House floor on Wednesday. The six hours will be divided evenly between the two parties. Members of the House will then vote on the two articles of impeachment being offered by House Democrats -- one on obstruction of Congress and another on abuse of power -- individually. Earlier on Tuesday, the Associated Press reported that enough Democrats plus Congress' lone independent have committed to voting for articles of impeachment against Trump. The result would result in Trump becoming the third president in American history to be impeached. The House said that Wednesday's session will get underway at 9 a.m. ET, but it is unclear exactly what time debate on the impeachment will start. 969
The Florida Bar is investigating Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz after his threatening tweet last night about President Donald Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen.Francine Andía Walker, the group's director of communications, said the Florida Bar received a number of calls and emails regarding the tweet after it posted.According to disciplinary guidelines for the group, which is the organization of all lawyers licensed by the Supreme Court of Florida to practice law in the state, the state bar's lawyer regulation arm must determine that an allegation against a bar member "would constitute a violation of the Rules Regulating The Florida Bar" before a probe is opened.On Tuesday night, just hours ahead of Cohen's public testimony before the House Oversight Committee, Gaetz -- a Trump ally -- tweeted at Cohen, "Do your wife & father-in-law know about your girlfriends? Maybe tonight would be a good time for that chat. I wonder if she'll remain faithful when you're in prison. She's about to learn a lot..."Gaetz later deleted his tweet and issued an apology.As part of their investigation, Walker said the Florida Bar on Wednesday would send Gaetz a letter outlining the allegation against him. Gaetz will have 15 days to respond.The Daily Beast first reported the investigation Wednesday."It seems that the Florida Bar, by its rules, is required to investigate even the most frivolous of complaints," said Jillian Lane Wyant, a spokeswoman for Gaetz, when asked for a response to the investigation.A state bar investigation is not a criminal probe, and in Florida, there are further layers of investigation that the probe will go through before any potential disciplinary action is brought down by the Florida Supreme Court.Rules regulating the Florida Bar say that "a lawyer's conduct should conform to the requirements of the law, both in professional service to clients and in the lawyer's business and personal affairs. A lawyer should use the law's procedures only for legitimate purposes and not to harass or intimidate others." 2055