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The United States could see an increase in immigrants coming to the country after Hurricanes Irma and Harvey, according to new research from the University of Michigan.According to the study, there are multiple reasons this happens, including migrants might find it easier to flee destruction in their own country.Another reason, according to U-M economists Dean Yang and Parag Mahajan, is they are able to secure green cards or legal permanent residency through their families already established in the country."When there's a bigger stock of previous migrants to the U.S., when someone in their home country is more likely to have a connection to some sort of migrant in the U.S., then the effect of hurricanes on migration is larger," Yang said.The researchers first studied the severity of a hurricane in a given country, using data from meteorological reports to estimate actual damage.Yang and Mahajan then analyzed restricted U.S. Census data from 159 counties over 25 years to see if America saw a rise in immigration following large storms in other countries.The largest effect came from Central America and the Caribbean."These regions get hit a lot by hurricanes that cause severe damage, and there are a lot of Central American and Caribbean immigrants in the U.S., so if you're looking for someone to sponsor you, you actually have that opportunity," Mahajan said.One example of that is Hurricane Cesar hitting Nicaragua in 1996. It caused food shortages, .5 million in damage, left 100,000 people homeless and killed 42. Yang and Mahajan found that in 1996 and 1997, there was a 50 percent increase in legal permanent residencies for Nicaraguans than in 1995."Much of this increase came from immediate relatives of U.S. citizens - parents, spouses and children," Mahajan added. "Repeated, similar responses like this in the data helped us conclude that networks of U.S. citizens from sending countries provide opportunities for family members to escape severe weather events." 2007

The U.S. Census Bureau says only a tiny percentage of records are affected by data irregularities that are putting in jeopardy a year-end deadline for turning in numbers used for divvying up congressional seats. However, released internal documents show the "high complexity" problems could push the release to February 2021. The Census Bureau told a congressional committee Thursday that the anomalies are being resolved as quickly as possible. House Democrats however say documents they obtained from Census sources, despite Trump administration stonewalling, show hundreds of thousands of records are affected.Fixing the irregularities could mean missing a Dec. 31 deadline for the Census Bureau to turn reapportionment numbers in to Congress. The internal Census documents shared by House Democrats show the data issues, which include several "high complexity" problems, could delay the once-a-decade report until February. Although the documents do not specify the extent of the larger issues, they do say incorrect handling of the issues could skew the count smaller or larger in some areas. They also say the Census Bureau estimates they need an additional 20 days for data processing. The bureau says the timeline remains in flux.The Census Bureau issued a statement asserting that "these kinds of anomalies and issues are expected and are similar to the Census Bureau's experience in prior decennial censuses." The Census Bureau Director acknowledged the issues in mid-November, more details and the delayed timeline are coming out now. The timeline is getting attention because it may or may not be after President Donald Trump leaves office on January 20. Trump has expressed interest in excluding unauthorized immigrants from the Census count. There have been challenges in court and questions about whether this could legally be done, and also whether it physically can be done by coming up with a reliable number to exclude. Three lower courts have blocked the directive from Trump saying it violates federal law that says the census should could the "whole number of persons" in each state. The Supreme Court just this week heard arguments in the case. They have not issued their ruling yet. 2215

The travel industry is still reeling from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic as millions of people have lost their travel-related jobs. Now, Congress is debating a bill that would provide thousands of dollars in travel tax credits to families."This could be used for airfare, for hotel stays, for meals and attractions within a certain distance away from home, let's say." says Tori Emerson Barnes with the U.S. Travel Association.Modeled after the homebuyer tax credit that was created in the recession of 2008, Barnes says, if passed, this financial incentive would be crucial toward putting the travel industry and the millions of people it employs back to work."Post 9/11, it took about 18 months for the travel industry to come back. From an economic standpoint, this is nine times worse than 9/11, so really what we have to do is get people moving again to get the economy back," says Barnes.The travel tax credit would pay back families 50% of their travel expenses up to ,000. The refund would be for travel expenses made between the time of the bill's enactment and the end of 2021."We know that we need to get people traveling again in a health and safe way so we think that establishing an individual travel tax credit that can help motivate folks and push them a little bit into the market will go a long way. We’ve been working with members of Congress on both sides of the aisle and administration," says Barnes.Chris Gahl of Visit Indy says the travel tax credit would be huge for businesses in Indianapolis."The tourism eco-system is made up of lots of different businesses. Most consumers would think of hotels, airlines, museums, restaurants and bars. But there are also companies that clean linens for the hotels, flower companies," says Gahl.As for easing travelers concerns amid COVID-19, Gahl says, "From Indiana’s perspective, from the capital of Indianapolis, we have taken great strides in putting people first and foremost and the health of our residents and subsequently our visitors.""We all believe that there needs to be appropriate sanitation, there needs to be appropriate barriers in place and we support the use of masks. You know, we think a phased and layered approach is critical to the health and safety of the American public but we don’t think you have to pick between the public health or the economic health of the country," says Barnes.In the Indianapolis area, Visit Indy says more than 83,000 people rely on tourism for their jobs."This goes well beyond the glossiness of hotels and restaurants and wanting a getaway. There's real people, real Americans who are working and depending on tourism for a paycheck," says Gahl.The US Travel Association hopes Congress votes on the bill by early August. 2754

The United States’ Gross Domestic Product is expected to have a modest comeback in 2021 while unemployment will be slower to recover for years to come, according to a government projection from the Congressional Budget Office.The nonpartisan government agency that provides policy guidance for members of Congress said that unemployment is projected to remain above pre-pandemic levels through 2030.Thursday’s estimates from the CBO indicate that real GDP in 2021 will jump 4% in 2021 from 2020 after taking a projected 5.8% drop in 2020. The CBO then projects that real GDP will increase 2.9%. In years following, the GDP is expected to level off at 2.2%.But after unemployment dropped to 3.5% in 2019,, the unemployment rate is expected to be 7.6% in 2021, followed by 6.9% in 2022 and 5.9% in 2023 and 2024. Data released Thursday pegged the US unemployment rate at 11.1% in June.The CBO stresses there is uncertainty in its forecast given the pandemic.“The severity and duration of the pandemic are subject to significant uncertainty,” the CBO said. “In particular, several important epidemiological characteristics of the coronavirus remain unclear: Much still needs to be learned about its transmissibility and lethality and about the immunity conferred on people who have recovered from it. Moreover, the severity and duration of the pandemic will be affected by how various mitigation measures reduce the spread of the virus and by when vaccines and additional treatments become available—outcomes that remain highly uncertain.” 1544

The scariest thing at Wormtown Brewery in Worcester, Massachusetts this fall has nothing to do with Halloween. This small independent brewery ran out of aluminum cans for the first time in company history."We have had a couple of loads of cans canceled on us, but last week was the first time we truly ran out of cans," said co-owner David Field.Shipments of cans are becoming very rare for breweries and beverage producers nationwide. Americans are drinking less at bars and restaurants and more at home, putting greater demand on liquor stores and breweries like Wormtown.Typically, this craft beer producer would send out about 20 percent of their product in kegs to area bars, but because of the pandemic, close to 100 percent of the beer they produce is being sent directly to consumers."People drink more often at home; they drink more in small social circles," Field said.In the U.S., there are only a small handful of can distributors. Most years, they produced about 100 billion aluminum cans. However, this year, there's a nationwide shortage of close to 10 billion cans.Everyone-- from major soda companies to small craft breweries--has started to feel the impact. Part of the shortage is being caused by the explosion of hard seltzers into the market. Only making the situation worse, many recycling plants were forced to go offline during the spring.But, mostly, experts say the can shortage is simply being caused by supply and demand."It's going to catch up with everybody. If they haven’t been hit, they will be, and it looks like it’s gonna be a little while," Field added.Perhaps one of the biggest buzzkill for small breweries is if customers can’t find their product on a shelf, they might be gone for good and turn to another product that's more available. Field says that could have long-lasting impacts on his company's bottom line."That person who loves our beer might be introduced to somebody else’s beer they like and may not come back to us," he said.The problem is impacting brewers all over the country. The Brewers Association, which represents more than 5,000 breweries, says they're even hearing about some manufacturers having a difficult time getting glass bottles."There’s been a huge increase in demand for cans that then when the pandemic hit, was just accelerated. Not just with beer, but all package types to cans," explained Chuck Skypeck, who serves as the group's technical brewing projects manager.What it all means for the American consumer is fewer options for beer and other soft drinks as well. It’s a difficult task for the nation's brewers as they try their best to quench this country's thirst for beer. 2662