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发布时间: 2025-05-30 13:04:46北京青年报社官方账号
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Predicting the outcome of elections can sometimes be easy. Other years, it is not. Professor Allan Lichtman has predicted every election since 1984, using a model he developed alongside Soviet Union scientists.One of Lichtman's proudest achievements was accurately predicting the 2016 election. President Donald Trump signed a Washington Post article about Lichtman in recent years with his autograph and the phrase "good call."THE METHODLichtman doesn't look at polls."Polls are not predictors, they are misused as predictors," Lichtman said.Instead, Lichtman looks at the political party currently controlling the White House. Then he uses 13 keys to gauge whether the party controlling the White House will lose or not.They are: midterm gains, no contest in the primary, incumbency, no third party, strong short-term economy, strong long-term economy, major policy change, no social unrest, no scandal, no overseas failure, major overseas achievement, charismatic incumbent, uncharismatic opponent."If six or more, any six more, turn against the party holding the White House, they are a predicted loser," Luchtman said.2020 PREDICTIONLichtman says before 2020, Trump appeared to be heading to a reelection. However Trump has now lost seven keys.In Lichtman's opinion, Trump has lost midterm gains, short term economy, long-term economy, no social unrest, no scandal, major overseas achievement, and charismatic incumbent."Could I be wrong? Of course human beings are wrong. But my keys have quite a track record," Lichtman said. 1541

  成都那有治老烂腿   

POWAY (CNS) - The man killed in a chain-reaction crash that injured several other people and blocked rush-hour traffic was identified today by authorities and friends as a 40-year-old father and musician.Aluctec Galindo was driving a Kia Optima just after 4:30 p.m. Tuesday in a northbound lane of Community Road when he lost control of the vehicle and struck another northbound motorist a little south of Poway Road, the San Diego County Medical Examiner's Office said. Galindo's Kia then crossed the painted center median, struck a commercial truck and was broad-sided by a Chevrolet 593

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President Donald Trump said Thursday he is opposed to changing the structure for the remaining two presidential debates. On Wednesday, the Commission on Presidential Debates said it was considering changes following Tuesday’s debate which contained frequent interruptions. “The Commission on Presidential Debates sponsors televised debates for the benefit of the American electorate,” the commission said on Wednesday. “Last night’s debate made clear that additional structure should be added to the format of the remaining debates to ensure a more orderly discussion of the issues. The CPD will be carefully considering the changes that it will adopt and will announce those measures shortly. The Commission is grateful to Chris Wallace for the professionalism and skill he brought to last night’s debate and intends to ensure that additional tools to maintain order are in place for the remaining debates.” But changes generally would have to be agreed upon by the campaigns, and it appears Trump opposes any changes. “Why would I allow the Debate Commission to change the rules for the second and third Debates when I easily won last time” Trump tweeted. Wallace called Tuesday’s debate a ‘missed opportunity' in an interview with the New York Times. “I never dreamt that it would go off the tracks the way it did,” he told the New York Times. 1365

  

President Donald Trump said in an interview on Monday that he would likely announce his replacement for Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's seat on "Friday or Saturday."Trump said in an interview on "Fox & Friends" that he would wait until funeral services for Ginsburg on "Thursday or Friday" were held before announcing his nomination."We want to pay respect (for Ginsburg)," Trump said.Later on Monday, the Supreme Court announced that Ginsburg would lie in repose at the Supreme Court Building in Washington on Wednesday and Thursday. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi later announced that Ginsburg would lie in state in Captiol Building on Friday.In a press release, the Supreme Court said that Ginsburg would be buried next week in Arlington National Ceremony in a private ceremony. Should Trump hold to his schedule of announcing a nominee on Friday or Saturday, Ginsburg will not yet have been laid to rest.Trump also said he's considering "four or five," judges for nomination. He's already said he would nominate a woman and was asked specifically about Justice Barbara Lagoa, a U.S. Circuit Judge.Trump called Lagoa "excellent," noting that she's from Florida."We love Florida," Trump said.Trump also reiterated his call for Ginsburg's seat to be filled before the 2020 Election."I think the final vote should be taken, frankly, before the election...plenty of time for that," Trump said. "I think it should go very quickly."Monday marked 43 days until the 2020 election. According to the Congressional Research Service in 2018, it takes the Senate an average of 69 days for a Supreme Court nominee to get to a vote.Trump was also asked to square the Republicans' decision in 2016 to block President Barack Obama's Supreme Court justice nominee, Merrick Garland, ahead of the presidential election."I think Merrick Garland is an outstanding judge. He is liberal, that's OK," Trump said. "That's an election of a different kind. We had the Senate. When you have the Senate, when you have the votes, you can kind of do what you want." 2056

  

POWAY (CNS) - A deputy received minor injuries Saturday when a passing car hit his patrol car, sheriff's officials said.At about 1:30 a.m., the deputy was sitting in his patrol car on the side of the road on Poway Road and Iola Way when a passing motorist hit his car and then hit a car the deputy had pulled over, according to Lt. Kevin Ralph of the San Diego County Sheriff's Department.The motorist pulled over and admitted he had been drinking earlier, officials said. He was arrested on suspicion of DUI.The person in the other car that was struck was not injured. 577

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