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A key forecasting model that’s been cited by the White House and state officials now predicts the COVID-19 death toll in the United States will surpass 410,000 by January 1.The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington released its latest forecast Friday, saying the U.S. and other countries in the Northern Hemisphere should prepare for a seasonal rise in COVID-19 cases.COVID-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to an ongoing tally from Johns Hopkins University.“I would call the surge in the winter that we’re forecasting a second wave,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray in a call with reporters Friday.The IHME says COVID-19 has followed seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia and if that correlation continues to hold, northern countries can anticipate more cases in the late fall and winter months.“The worst is yet to come,” warned Murray. “I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern Hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away.”The IHME’s prediction of 410,000 U.S. deaths by Jan. 1 is its most likely scenario, but it also provided a worst-case scenario. If mask usage stays the same and states continue to relax social distancing requirements, the IHME model predicts over 620,000 Americans could die from the virus by the new year.The IHME’s best-case scenario, where mask usage is universal and governments impose social distancing requirements, shows more than 286,000 people dying across the nation by the end of the year.“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” said Murray in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”Globally, the IHME predicts that nearly 770,000 lives could be saved between now and Jan. 1 through proven measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing.Across the world, deaths expected by Jan. 1 total 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more from now until the end of the year, the IHME says. Daily deaths in December could reach as high as 30,000.Under the most likely of IHME’s scenarios, the nations with the highest per capita total deaths would be the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Netherlands, and Spain.The IHME says these five countries will most likely have the highest cumulative death tolls by Jan. 1:India: 659,537U.S.: 410,451Brazil: 174,297Mexico: 138,828Japan: 120,514IHME says its projections are based on an epidemiological model that includes data on cases, deaths, and antibody prevalence, as well as location-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, population density and age structure, and pneumonia seasonality, which shows a strong correlation with the trajectory of COVID-19. 2977

A German cruise line is facing outrage after one of its employees shot and killed a wild polar bear in Norway after the animal attacked another of its employees.Hapag-Lloyd Cruises said its ship was docked at Spitsbergen, the largest island on Norway's Svalbard archipelago, on Saturday when the bear attacked a guard hired to go on shore before passengers to ensure there aren't any polar bears in the area.The guard suffered non-life-threatening head injuries and was airlifted out, Hapag-Lloyd Cruises said in a statement on Facebook. 545

A GOP coronavirus relief package faces dire prospects in a Senate test vote, and negotiators involved in recent efforts to strike a deal that could pass before the November election say they see little reason for hope.Instead, it’s looking increasingly likely that all Congress will do before the election is pass legislation that would avoid a federal shutdown as lawmakers head home to campaign.Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said he was “optimistic” that Republicans would deliver strong support for the GOP’s 0 billion slimmed-down COVID-19 rescue package in Thursday’s procedural vote, but a Democratic filibuster is assured. Democrats have indicated they will shelve the Republican measure as insufficient, leaving lawmakers at an impasse.There’s no indication yet that bipartisan talks that crumbled last month will restart.“Unless something really broke through, it’s not going to happen,” said Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee.The stalemate is politically risky for all sides heading into the fall election, which will decide not only the presidency, but also control of Congress.While nationwide coronavirus cases appear to be at a plateau, there is still widespread economic hardship and social unease in homes, schools and businesses affected by closures. Experts warn that infections are expected to spike again if Americans fail to abide by public health guidelines for mask-wearing and social distancing, especially amid colder weather and flu season.McConnell said Democrats have not backed off what he said were unreasonable demands. He accused Democrats of acting as though it is to their political advantage to deny Republicans and President Donald Trump a victory on the virus so close to Election Day. Without Democratic votes, the GOP bill cannot reach the threshold needed to advance the aid plan.“They do not want any bipartisan relief,” McConnell said.But the top Democrat, Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, said Republicans are “so out of touch.” He predicted Republicans and the White House “may yet be forced to come back to the table because COVID is the major issue that’s facing the American people.”The stalemate has left McConnell and Republicans to say that they support a short-term spending measure, called a continuing resolution, or CR, that would avert a government shutdown at month’s end and set up a post-election lame-duck session to deal with any unfinished Capitol Hill legislation, which could include coronavirus relief.“My guess would be that if we leave in September with a CR, we will not come back to do anything before the election,” said Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo.Shelby said lawmakers from both parties want to return home to campaign rather than stick around Washington.Schumer said he has not decided whether to support a December date for a stopgap measure. Some Democrats, confident about presidential nominee Joe Biden’s prospects in November, want to push unfinished spending bills into next year and therefore avoid dealing with Trump in December. The nation’s longest-ever government shutdown unfolded as 2018 turned into 2019.The Republican measure headed for a test vote Thursday would:— Provide 5 billion to help schools reopen.— Enact a shield against lawsuits for businesses and others moving ahead to reopen.— Create a scaled-back 0-per-week supplemental jobless benefit.— Write off billion in earlier debt at the U.S. Postal Service.— Set aside billion for a coronavirus vaccine, billion for virus testing and billion to help child care providers reopen.— Provide billion for farmers.— Devote 8 billion for a second round of paycheck protection subsidies.But it does not contain a new round of ,200 direct payments going out under Trump’s name, and the new 0 weekly jobless benefit would expire just after Christmas, on Dec. 27. The GOP bill also lacks money for election security that lawmakers from both parties have supported.Democrats say the GOP bill is far too small and leaves out important priorities, including hundreds of billions of dollars for state and local governments, more generous jobless benefits, and help for renters and homeowners, along with other provisions in the House Democrats’ .5 trillion relief bill that passed in May. 4318

A convicted felon was arrested Friday morning after he broke into a random apartment and was discovered sleeping on a Rittman couple's couch, police said.Eric Branhan, 36, is charged with aggravated burglary.Police said Branham crawled through a window, busted some blinds and entered the apartment. He ate several pieces of candy from an Easter basket and then fell asleep on a living room couch.The couple who lives there, Jaclyn Fortner and Derek Jenkin, made the creepy discovery just after 6 a.m. local time."We kept saying like, 'Who are you? What are you doing?' And, no response, Fortner said.Jenkin continued to scream at the man while on the phone with a 911 operator."Get out of here! Let's go! Come on!"Police said Branham left the apartment but lingered around the complex and was arrested.Officers found two knives and prescription medication on the suspect."It's kind of scary, especially thinking what's out there, so he could have woke up angry and like escalated the situation," Fortney said.According to state records, Branham has spent time in prison for forgery, possession of drugs, illegal possession of drugs and burglary.Branham was on post release control following his release from prison in 2017.Rittman is located in northeast Ohio, about an hour south of Cleveland.   1335

A former refugee is using his life experience and brilliant mind to inspire world peace through video games. He’s using a groundbreaking approach that puts the players in a position to save real lives.Lual Mayen is proud of where he came from.“My name is Lual Mayen and I’m from South Sudan,” he said as we started our interview, explaining how his life started. “I was born on the way as my family was actually fleeing war there and ended up in Northern Uganda.”He spent his first two decades on Earth in an environment most couldn’t imagine.“I've been in a refugee camp for like 22 years of my life,” Mayen explains. “That’s where I spent all my childhood in a refugee camp.”Mayen is also proud of where he’s going. He lives in Washington, D.C. now and is focused on helping to chip away at the global refugee crisis. The UN Refugee Agency estimates it affects 79.5 million people.“I'm here to create more opportunities for refugees,” he said, without giving it a second thought.Mayen is accomplishing his goal through video games. He’s the founder, CEO and self-taught developer for his company, Junub Games. And he’s about to launch a new game that’s all about peace.It’s called Salaam, an Arabic word that means peace. We asked Mayen to describe it.“So, Salaam is an Arabic word that means peace,” he starts. “[It’s] a high-tension video game that puts the player in the shoes of a refugee who’s fleeing a country.”In Salaam, the goal is to get your character from a war-torn country to a peaceful space safely. The character faces real-life challenges like hunger and thirst along the way.For Mayen, the project is no game.“That is going to bring the global communities together virtually,” he said.He designed Salaam to include players in the game in a way that’s never been done before.“You are like interacting with a virtual character and you're also interacting with somebody in a refugee camp.”Mayen is teaming up with a nonprofit to give players a hand in helping him change the world. A portion of in-app purchases will go to help refugees.“When you buy food in the game, you actually bring somebody in a refugee camp food,” he explained. “When you buy water in the game, you’re giving them water. When you buy medicine, you are buying them medicine.”He sees the idea as more than a fun way to get players more involved in games. He sees it as a way to make the world a better place.“And that's why I personally believe that we can use our experiences to create a sustainable future for other people.”Mayen credits one person for his success today – his mother.“I'm happy that I have somebody like her in my life,” he said, smiling.He tells the story of how his mom quietly saved money for years to get him his first computer.“And one day, she was like ‘Lual here is 0, you can use it to buy a computer.’ And that moment just changed my life.”Mayen says none of his work will top what she did for him and his siblings, who today, all live in Canada.“I'm proud that no matter what I'm going to do, it will never overshadow the work that she has done in my life.”Today, Mayen stays focused on addressing the refugee crisis he says isn’t going away.“People are being displaced because of war. People are being displaced because of climate change.”He hopes Salaam helps create a solution.“You can be you as a player and you still help people,” he said.And he hopes it gives refugees new opportunity and helps more people realize that refugees are people.“We can be programmers. We can go to the moon if we want. We can be like anything we all want to,” Mayen said through a smile. “If we have opportunity. It’s hope.” 3638

来源：资阳报