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BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Decoupling from the world, and the economic downturn much of it is experiencing, has proven impossible for China. But its resilience is receiving more recognition, with many leading financial institutions upgrading their 2009 growth forecasts since mid-April.     The adjustments for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranging from 0.5 to 2.3 percentage points, were based on signs of a turnaround in the first quarter. These indicators included stronger-than-expected real GDP growth, recovering property investment, a pick-up in power consumption and a surge in bank lending.     Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expected China's GDP to grow 7.2 percent in the second quarter and 8 percent this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its projection from 6 percent to 8.3 percent, the most optimistic forecast so far. Other forecasts include UBS, which raised its estimate by 0.5 point to 7 percent and CLSA Asia-Pacific, which lifted its outlook by 1.5 point to 7 percent.     China's policymakers can take heart from these forecasts. Every upward revision, big or small, given the global economic slowdown, might point to a better chance for the nation to achieve its 8-percent growth target. That level of growth is considered necessary to raise living standards while maintaining social stability.     But there's still the question of whether rapid growth is sustainable. Some analysts believe it isn't unless China can rebalance its economy and achieve higher efficiency, lower environmental costs and a more reasonable balance among investment, trade and consumption.     QUANTITY OR QUALITY?     In an interview with Xinhua, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, urged Chinese authorities to get more serious about stimulating private consumption because the global economy remains "pretty weak" and might only achieve a weak recovery.     "China has responded to the crisis the way it has always responded to global problems. That is, using proactive fiscal stimulus mainly in the infrastructure area to provide temporary support in the downturn until the global economy comes back. It worked in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2000-2001 mild recession. But this is a different sort of problem," said Roach.     "Once the stimulus wears off and if there is no follow-through, the Chinese economy will weaken again. I don't think exports will recover in the weak global economy."     Domestic economists voice similar worries, saying that the speed of growth doesn't matter as much as the quality. Liu Shangxi, deputy dean of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the Ministry of Finance, said that the 6.1-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter had been "fairly good" for China. But, he said, "sometimes, it's worth slowing down a bit to have the economy move more stably."     Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the chief planning agency. said that the government's annual growth target had become mostly symbolic.     For five years in a row, the target was 8 percent, and for five years in a row, the growth rate overshot the target. Wang said the government had faced a dilemma: a cut in the target might undermine public confidence while a rise might tempt local governments to over-invest to meet a high growth target.     The turnaround signs mostly reflected the impact of the 4-trillion-yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package. Meanwhile, retail sales still trailed investment in contributing to growth. Local economists warned that the economy remained unbalanced and vulnerable.     "Historical records show that adjustments in the Chinese economy would take two to three years, on average. Seven months have passed since the impact of the global financial crisis began to tell on the local economy.     "With a turnaround in sight, recovery might come earlier than expected but there are still risks of a further slowdown," Chen Dongqi, deputy chief of the Macro-Economic Research Institute under the NDRC, told a business development forum in Guangdong in late April.     BUYING CURE     It's widely accepted among economists that China should boost domestic private consumption by leading individuals to buy more and save less. The key question is: how?     "Two big programs" Roach advocates call for doubling the investment in social security immediately to 150 billion U.S. dollars and establishing a goal of raising consumption as a share of the economy from 36 percent to 50 percent within five years.     "What I think is missing here is the social safety net, social security pension and unemployment insurance. Because of the absence of the safety net, China has seen a high level of precautionary saving," he said.     Roach suggested that China develop a private pension system in particular so total employee compensation could rise in tandem with productivity. "Chinese companies need to partner with their workers and provide medical care [and] retirement investing for their workforce. Chinese workers' total pay package should have both wages and benefits," he said.     Liu agreed that the primary task in expanding consumption was to raise incomes. "Securing the legitimate interests of workers is particularly significant when the economy slumps. It would be like drinking poison to quench one's thirst if businesses sought to expand corporate earnings at the cost of workers' pay and benefits," he said.     Low labor costs and massive capacity have propped up China's prosperity over the past decades. But the proportion of wages to national income has been on a long decline since the 1990s.     Between 2002 and 2006 alone, economists estimate the figure dropped from 62.1 percent to 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell from 43.6 percent to 38.9 percent.     "A more meaningful index to judge the sustainability of China's economic growth would be the proportion of wages to national income," Liu said. "If this ratio did not rise, people would remain poor, and thus expanding consumption would be empty talk."     Chinese are far from wealthy. Only 4 percent of the workforce, and just 10 percent of the urban workforce, earn more than 2,000 yuan a month, the threshold for individual income tax.     As Chinese residents hold 2.43 trillion yuan in aggregate deposits, economists say one immediate way to boost consumption would be to stabilize spending on staple property -- including housing and automobiles -- and support tourism and cultural activities.     "People spend much of their money on housing and food. The government should encourage people to entertain themselves more," Wang said.     CHINA 'NO LOCOMOTIVE'     Although China might be the first major economy to recover from the downturn, economists disagree on when China will return to sustained high growth.     Morgan Stanley, for example, has forecast a firm recovery by mid-year, but said sustainable growth through 2010 would still hinge on what happens in other countries.     "China will be stronger. But will that strength be enough to allow others to follow in its footsteps? I don't think so," said Roach.     "Most of China's resilience comes from infrastructure building, roads, property consumption ... [this] won't have an impact on the United States and Europe. This resilience is only temporary while its stimulus is local rather than global."     Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also warned in late April during World Bank-IMF meetings in Washington that the rebound in China's economy had to be consolidated. He said conditions in China would permit rapid economic development again, once macroeconomic policies such as the stimulus plan took effect.     Challenging internal and external conditions, he said, included continuously shrinking external demand, a relatively large decline in exports, overcapacity in some industries, falling government revenue and lingering employment pressure.     As China emerges from the shadow of the downturn, together with many of its Western partners, the world is closely watching the socialist market economy that it is still trying to develop.     It was interesting to see that there was much "the ideologically-constrained West" could learn from China, just as there was much China could learn from the West, said Roach.     "China has gone slow in many areas, especially in the opening up of its financial market. But China made the right choice," he said.     "Focusing on stability is a huge plus for China. But the nation must be vigilant in its financial policies, especially monetary and regulatory policies, and not allow asset bubbles and financial innovations it doesn't understand," said Roach.

FLORENCE, Italy, May 22 (Xinhua) -- China's top lawmaker Wu Bangguo said here on Friday that China and Italy both have long-standing cultural traditions and should strengthen their cultural exchanges.     Wu, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC) of China, made the remarks while meeting with Riccardo Nencini, president of the local Parliament of Tuscany Region in Italy.     Wu arrived in Florence on Friday afternoon to continue his official goodwill visit to Italy. Wu Bangguo (L2), chairman of the Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress, the country's top legislature, visits the research and development center under the Italian National Agency for New Technology, Energy and Environment (ENEA) in Rome May 21, 2009.    Nencini recalled the visit to Florence by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in 2004, saying he is glad to receive yet another senior Chinese leader in the region.     Wu said during Premier Wen's visit some five years ago, the two countries officially launched an all-round strategic partnership. Since then, bilateral links have been growing rapidly. Wu Bangguo (L1), chairman of the Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress, the country's top legislature, visits the research and development center under the Italian National Agency for New Technology, Energy and Environment (ENEA) in Rome May 21, 2009Noting that the two countries share a long-standing friendship, Wu said China and Italy are enjoying the best ever period of their relationship in history.     In a review of his meetings with leaders of the Italian government and parliament during this visit, Wu said the two sides share a strong will to further advance bilateral links and cooperation.     Nencini said the Tuscany Region has forged friendly relations with a number of provinces and municipalities in China. In the past years, the Tuscany Region has developed close trade and economic links with China, as well as vigorous cultural exchanges.     Nencini hopes that the region would continue to explore broader areas of cooperation with China, including university education.     Wu will conclude his visit on Sunday.

TOKYO, June 7 (Xinhua) -- Japan and China vowed to promote cooperation on the topics of environment protection, technology trade and intellectual property rights (IPR) protection during their second high-level economic dialogue held here on Sunday. "China attaches great importance on saving the energy and protecting the ecology, while Japan has broad experience and advanced technologies on these areas," said Zhang Ping, chairman of China's National Development and Reform Commission, "So the two countries can achieve win-win results through close cooperation." Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming (4th L), Chairman of China's National Development and Reform Commission Zhang Ping (3rd L) and other Chinese officials hold a press conference in Tokyo, capital of Japan, on June 7, 2009. The officials were all members of a Chinese delegation which arrived here Saturday to attend the 2nd Sino-Japanese high-level economic dialogue    Zhang said in recent years China and Japan have already conducted active collaboration on energy and environment conservation. This has become a new highlight among the wide range of cooperation between the two countries and provided a new growing point for bilateral trade and economy.     He said more cooperation will be conducted on countermeasures of sandstorms, air pollution and treatment of garbage and sewage in small cities and towns.     The two sides also signed a contract to turn Shenyang, which used to be a heavy industrial city in China's northeast, into an environment conservation "sample city" through cooperation with Japan's Kawasaki of Kanagawa Prefecture, which is renowned for its recycling economy.     China and Japan also exchanged views on developing technology trade and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) cooperation.     "Japanese SMEs are very mature in technology and Chinese SMEs are growing fast. They should have huge potential for cooperation to tap into the vast market both inside and outside China," according to Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming.     Chen said China will continue to promote overseas business of SMEs and hoped Japan can help facilitate the process by measures such as easing visa controls.     Chen and his Japanese counterpart, Toshihiro Nikai, minister of economy, trade and industry, also talked on strengthening 3G telecommunications network building, opening up source code software and software and IT service outsourcing, as well as the compulsory certification system for information security products that Chinese government planned to introduce.     They signed a memorandum and established for the first time a working group to protect intellectual property rights (IPR).     "The working group will focus on information sharing of laws and regulations with regards to IPR, as well as the experience in the law enforcement," Chen said.     "Japan is a very advanced country in terms of IPR protection and we believe there are many experiences that China can learn," he added.     He said through efforts in recent years China has established its own IPR protection system. "China, as a developing country, will face a lot of problems in the process of enforcement, but we will not shun such problems."     "China and Japan have a broad range of economic cooperation. We will use the working group mechanism to solve problems in respect of IPR protection," Chen said.     The memorandum signed by Chen and Nikai stipulates that the intellectual property working group meet once a year. Nikai asked that the working group convene its first meeting by the end of the year.     The one-day dialogue, co-chaired by Wang and Japanese Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone, was attended by senior officials from the two countries.     The dialogue mechanism, first held in Beijing in December 2007, was jointly launched by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during Wen's trip to Japan in April 2007.

MOSCOW, July 4 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin discussed here on Saturday the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula and the situation in Northeast Asia.     On the basis of mutual trust, the two sides exchanged in-depth views and reached consensus.     Both ministers agreed that the situation in Northeast Asia had become of major concern as escalating tensions there could trigger a new arms race, threatening regional security.     They said all parties concerned should remain calm and refrain from taking any actions that might further aggravate the situation. They said all relevant issues can be resolved through peaceful and diplomatic solutions such as negotiations, consultations and dialogue. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei (2nd R) meets with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin (2nd L)in Moscow, Russia, July 4, 2009, to discuss the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula and the situation in Northeast Asia.China and Russia, as always, believe that safeguarding peace and stability of Northeast Asia accords with the interests of all countries in the region, they said, adding that the two countries will make joint efforts to secure such peace and stability.     Both sides also reiterated their support to the goal of seeking complete and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The two countries will seriously carry out related resolutions of the United Nations (UN) in the hope that implementing them can help maintain peace and stability of the peninsula.     Both sides believed that the six-party talks was the only effective mechanism to resolve the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue. Only within the framework of the talks, can all parties find solutions to their security concerns, the ministers said.     They said China and Russia were ready to make efforts, along with other parties, to resume the six-party talks.     Wu arrived on Thursday in Moscow to discuss the Korean nuclear crisis. He will later visit the United States, Japan and South Korea.

来源：资阳报