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The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The housing market has been strong in 2020, but as we head into 2021, it seems the market will continue to buck all home buying and selling trends.“It used to be true the home buying season was spring or summer when kids are out of school,” says Daryl Fairweather, chief economist for Redfin. “The pandemic has changed all that.”It's her job to study the market, follow migration patterns, and make sure both agents and customers are informed.“I predict that the early winter -- January, February -- is going to be an unusually busy home buying and selling season,” Fairweather says.Fairweather said people can move anytime and they're eager to get it over with when they've made the decision to relocate.“People want to move to places that really fit their preferences whether it's a beach town or a lake town or to be closer to their family, people are moving to places that they really want to live in, not just places that are close to the office,” Fairweather said.Jordan Thomas bought a home while the market has been hot.“It's a very quick process, buying was extremely competitive,” Thomas said.Thomas said she was among the many who decided the time to buy is now.“Because the interest rates were so great, I was able to get a really great deal on a larger home for myself,” Thomas said.She was the first to put in an offer on her Houston-area home. Six more offers followed that same day.“Because I was the first to put in the offer and I was aggressive with what I put forth, the first time around was the reason why I ended up getting the home,” Thomas said.And true to Fairweather's prediction about what people want in a home, Thomas was ready to renovate. Like others, she wanted an updated, larger kitchen and a bigger home office.“Two days after I closed on my home, I handed the key over my contractor and said ‘go to town,’” Thomas said.If you're looking at one of those "hot markets,” places like the suburbs, vacation towns, or mountainous and lake areas, Fairweather said, “My advice to buyers is that timing matters.”Fairweather added that buyers should be ready for competition. 2110

The Gulf Coast appears to have dodged a bullet after Marco — once a tropical storm — collapsed into a post-tropical cyclone as it neared the Louisiana coast. But the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns that the region faces a more substantial threat in Hurricane Laura.Just after 8 a.m. on Tuesday, the NHC reported that Laura had officially strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of over 74 mph. As part of the agency's 11 p.m.. ET update, the storm is expected to reach the Louisiana or Texas coast by late Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning. By the time it reaches the coast, the NHC forecasts that the storm could be a Major Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 120 MPH.At 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Hurricane Laura had top winds of 90 MPH, and was located 405 miles southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana. The storm is moving west-northwest at 17 MPH.The storm has already proven to be deadly. Haiti's Civil Protection Agency reports that 21 people were killed as the then tropical storm passed over the nation.A Twitter List by alexhider The NHC said Tuesday that the system could bring life-threatening storm on the Gulf Coast from as far west as San Luis Pass, Texas to as far east as Ocean Springs, Mississippi.The agency also warned that an inland region of the south-central United States could face flash floods and urban floods by the end of the week and into the weekend.A hurricane watch is currently in effect across the Gulf Coast, between Port Bolivar, Texas, to the west of Morgan City, Louisiana. The city of Galveston, Texas has already announced a mandatory evacuation and has ordered anyone within the city to leave and move inland by noon on Tuesday. 1736

The plastic ball recovered in the lower Niagara River that Kirk Jones intended to ride over Niagara Falls while holding his pet boa constrictor named "Misty." Jones' body was found months later in the lower river. It is unknown if Jones ever successfully got into the ball with the snake or if he fell out of it into the water. 336

The Miami Police Department says what began as disagreement about masks led to an assault on Sunday evening.According to a statement from the Miami Police Department, the incident began at Latin Cafe, a ventanita or coffee shop near Miami International Airport. Surveillance video shows five people milling about outside of the cafe.The Miami Police Department says a few patrons got into an argument about mask compliance. Video shows one customer, wearing a mask and a red shirt, gesturing toward cafe employees and appearing to speak in exaggerated tones toward another customer without a mask.The customer without a mask stepped toward the man in the red shirt, and then a struggle ensued. Additional security footage shows the man in the red shirt falling to the ground. That man's girlfriend saw the incident from her car and ran to help. Police say she was also hit during the scuffle.Miami Police Officer Kiara Delva told WSVN-TV in Miami that the fight left the man in the red shirt "disoriented."Police say they're searching for four people in connection with the incident. It's unclear how many of those people could face charges.Miami currently requires the use of masks in public to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. First-time offenders are issued warnings, while repeat offenders could face fines. 1325