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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Economic forecasters are beginning to warn of a possible 2020 recession, and the impact they say will be felt in the Golden State, according to a new report by UCLA.“Don’t celebrate the 3.1% GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2019,” writes UCLA Anderson Professor Emeritus Edward Leamer. Leamer is quoted in a recent report produced by the UCLA Anderson School of Management. According to Leamer, the data actually increases the risk of a recession at some point in the next couple of years. Nationally, economic growth is expected to slow marginally to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020. RELATED: Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since recessionThe good news is that the report predicts an economic rebound, growing again to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. So what picture does the report paint for California? One forecaster says you can expect California unemployment to rise modestly. “Weakness in housing as well as the slowing U.S. economy is reflected in a very modest growth rate in the U.S. in late 2020,” UCLA Anderson Forecast director Jerry Nickelsburg writes. “As a consequence, we expect California’s average unemployment rate to rise slightly to an average of 4.6% in the first quarter of 2021. For the entire year for 2020 and 2021, we expect average unemployment rates of 4.3% and 4.4%, respectively.”Meanwhile, personal income growth in the state of California is forecast at 2.9 percent in 2019. But the report warns that income growth is expected to slow to 1.9 percent by 2020.It’s not all bad news, however, income growth is expected to rise fairly quickly again in 2021, and is forecast to reach 2.1 percent by the end of the year. There's more good news. The Federal Reserve Wednesday lowered interest rates for the first time since the Great Recession in 2008 to help prevent an economic downturn. 1936

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Glasses up, San Diego. It's time to celebrate one of the region's most important industries.From Nov. 3 to 12, San Diego Beer Week will celebrate the region's ever-popular beer scene and culture throughout the county with ten days worth of events on tap.For those thinking the week is just another round of beer events, consider the impact beer has on San Diego. According to the San Diego Brewer's Guild, the region is home to more than 130 craft breweries. That industry generated an estimated 1 million in 2015 and employed 4,512 workers, according to the San Diego Regional Economic Development Corporation.So, yeah, it's a pretty big deal.The week kicks off at Port Pavilion on Broadway Pier with the 15th Annual Guild Fest, featuring more than 60 of the region's breweries.Excited? You're not alone. Here's a look at some of the events happening across the county for San Diego Beer Week.Friday, Nov. 3 948

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Details about a woman’s report of a violent rape were revealed in a downtown San Diego courtroom Wednesday as a resident of a nearby halfway house was charged with the crime. Juan Guzman pleaded not guilty to attacking the woman at 1:40 a.m. December 16 at her home in City Heights. Prosecutors said the victim was sitting on her bedroom floor in front of a mirror when she heard a noise and thought it was her boyfriend. She then saw the reflection of a man she didn’t know, according to attorneys. The man put his finger over his mouth and said “Shh”, the woman reportedly told police. He threatened her with a knife and raped her, prosecutors said. The woman called police, who questioned the man at the halfway house where he lived. Investigators found the woman’s underwear and the knife underneath Guzman’s mattress, prosecutors said. A judge set Guzman’s bail at million, saying he was a danger to the community. Guzman’s preliminary hearing is scheduled for January 3. 1006

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Former Congressman Darrell Issa is standing behind a political ad that the San Diego chair of his own party has called highly inappropriate.The ad, running on local television, takes aim at Carl DeMaio, a key Issa opponent in the race to replace Duncan Hunter in California's 50th Congressional District. The campaign commercial presents itself as a retort to a recent DeMaio ad that questioned Issa's dedication to President Trump. Issa's ad turns that around. However, the attacks appear to get personal. The ad uses images of two news article headlines in The Hill and The Los Angeles Blade that describe DeMaio as "Gay." It also uses images of MS-13 gang members when talking about DeMaio's stance on a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants (DeMaio said in The Hill article that he supports a path for well-educated immigrants and those who came to the U.S. as children.)San Diego Republican Party Chair Tony Krvaric described the ad as highly inappropriate."We encourage all candidates to stick to the issues," he said. At a news conference Thursday, Issa defended the ad. 1110

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Firefighters have extinguished the fire that caused a hotel near Harbor Island Park to be evacuated Wednesday afternoon. Firefighters say the two-alarm fire broke out at the Sheraton on the 1300 block of Harbor Island Drive. No one was injured, but the fire, which took place in the hotel's elevator shaft, caused at least 0,000 in damage. Firefighters were alerted to the fire after they say people reported heavy smoke coming from the elevator shaft.At this time, the cause of the fire is unknown.  551

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