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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

With just eight days until election day and despite attempts at parliamentary roadblocks by Democrats, Senate Republicans easily confirmed Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court on Monday.On Sunday afternoon, the Senate voted 51-48 to advance Barrett's confirmation, which opened a final 30 hours of Senate debate. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell directed the Senate to work overnight to complete the process by Monday evening. According to CNN, President Donald Trump is expected to swear-in Barrett at a ceremony at the White House at 9 p.m.Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, was the only Republican Senator set to vote against Barrett's confirmation. The final tally was 52-48.Meanwhile, Democrats' repeated attempts to delay the process have proven futile. On Thursday, Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee chose to boycott a vote that sent the vote to the Senate floor. And since Senate Republicans changed parliamentary rules to prevent the filibuster of Supreme Court nominees in 2017, Democrats have little recourse to further block Barrett's confirmation.The push to fill the Supreme Court seat vacated by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg stands in stark contrast to 2016, when Republicans chose not to hold confirmation hearings for President Barack Obama's nominee to replace Justice Antonin Scalia for more than six months prior to a presidential election, saying that the American people should decide who fills the vacancy.Barrett's confirmation would give conservative judges a 6-3 voting edge on the court, which could significantly shape policies and precedents for a generation. 1626

With Congress debating the next economic relief package, American workers are set to lose additional unemployment money at the end of the week.The crisis has affected all sorts of workers, but one particular group is less likely to be able to recover – the older workforce.AARP found 30% of older workers lost jobs or income because of COVID-19.Research from the Great Recession found it takes older Americans twice as long to get back into the workforce. If they do, they almost always never end up making the money they used to.AARP is also concerned businesses might be reluctant to hire older workers because of the increased risk to the virus.“There’s now five generations for the first time ever in the workforce, so having that diverse age will actually help in bringing products and services to the market that appeal to a wide range of age of people,” said Susan Weinstock, VP of Financial Resilience at AARP.Prior to the pandemic, businesses were looking to recruit older workers because of their unique soft skills: being empathetic, calm under pressure, and a good listener.Multigenerational workforces tend to be more efficient, productive and have fewer errors and absenteeism.“Think about something that happened at work when you are 25 and then when you are 55 and something similar happens you have some perspective you can bring,” said Weinstock.AARP has resources specific for older workers affected by the pandemic, including a jobs board with a lot of remote work for those concerned about going to work in person. 1543

When students normally head back to school, they're greeted with new teachers, classmates, and a new school picture. But professional school photos are either delayed or looking a little different this year because of the pandemic."It's very different. One of the things is we had a lot of schools that hadn't even started back yet, but a lot that have come back have pushed back their start date," explained Erin Middleton, the manager of operations for BPI Photography in Georgia.Middleton says their company is working closely with schools to safely photograph students who are back in-person in the classroom and accommodate those who aren't. BPI Photography says it first works with schools--with social distancing and masks in mind--to take photos of students who are at the school."Then, we actually create a report that is a not-photographed report, and on that not-photographed report would be your students that are face-to-face that didn’t make it on the original picture day,” Middleton explained. “But we also are capturing our virtual students on the absentee day which is like a make-up or retake day.”Middeton says sometimes the photos for virtual students take place after school hours. The company says they are doing everything they can to accommodate schools and families during this unprecedented time. A time some people are wanting to remember in their school picture. That means students and faculty taking their pictures while wearing a mask.For families who are feeling a little lost at this time, Shutterfly and Lifetouch are offering a 2020 School Picture Day guide on their website, plus a new feature for students who are remote learning from home."What we wanted to do in this crazy year of COVID is be able to provide some options for parents and we are photographing at lots of schools around the US but also where picture day isn’t taking place,” said Stephanie Schmid, vice president of marketing and merchandising for Lifetouch. “We wanted to provide a really flexible option for families and meet them where they are, and oftentimes, that's in their living room or their kitchen."Lifetouch launched a new feature through Shutterfly's app, where parents can upload a photo of their child and choose a professional background that they'd normally see in school photos. This allows them to order a school photo that looks just like the one they'd have taken at school."We know families like to have a collection, so you have that child and you want that kindergarten through 8th grade collection and sometimes families order the same background every year. What we did is we offered blue, which is the iconic Lifetouch Picture Day background along with a number of other best sellers so that families can continue their collection and not miss a beat even with a year like this, with COVID-19," said Schmid.Capturing the smiles on children's faces, even if they've had a rocky start to the school year. 2944

When professional team sports resume later this month, a number of MLB and NBA players have decided not to return to action.Over the weekend, pitchers Felix Hernandez and David Price became the latest MLB players top opt out for this year’s baseball season, which is slated to begin within three weeks.Hernandez said,” Never before has an entire MLB season depended so much on everyone in the league’s involvement. Let’s be responsible and keep each other safe. It’s not just for us, but for the game and our own families.”Price also cited concerns about his family on why he opted to sit out the 2020 season.“After considerable thought and discussion with my family and the Dodgers, I have decided it is in the best interest of my health and my family’s health for me to not play this season,” he said.Other professional athletes have expressed concern over the return to sports. Angels star Mike Trout has been seen wearing a mask during on-field workouts.MLS goalkeeper Matt Lampson said athletes aren’t as invincible to the coronavirus as it appears.“For everyone in the ‘These are pro athletes. There is no risk. Nothing happens to them if they get the virus camp - I am high risk,” Lampon tweeted. “And I know for a fact there are multiple others at MLS is Back that are as well - including other players on their way here. This is serious.”Other MLB players confirmed to not participate in the upcoming season include Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman, Joe Ross and Nick Markakis.NBA players who have opted out include Victor Oladipo and DeAndre Jordan. With the MLB, NHL and NBA all scheduled to begin within the next four weeks, the leagues will be heavily relying on frequent COVID-19 testing in order to prevent spreading the virus to other players. 1762

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