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The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has been issuing frequent projections since March in an attempt to model the spread and impact of the coronavirus across the world.The models have been used by the CDC and White House coronavirus task force in an effort to better understand the potential number of deaths the coronavirus could cause.On Friday, the model added a new variable, one that could cause a steep decline of coronavirus deaths throughout the US. The IHME’s newest model, which predicts the number of coronavirus deaths in the US through the end of March, is now weighing the potential impact of vaccines on the virus.For those hoping for an immediate drop in hospitalizations and deaths caused by the coronavirus as soon as vaccinations begin later this month might be disappointed. The IHME's model shows the initial batch of vaccinations will have a relatively muted effect on deaths and hospitalizations initially. While by April 1, much of the general US population will likely not be fully vaccinated, many in the high-risk category should expect to vaccinated by then. How fast they get vaccinated will play a role in determining the number of coronavirus deaths in the US.As of Friday evening, there have been over 278,000 coronavirus-related deaths reported throughout the US, per Johns Hopkins University data. Without any vaccines reaching Americans, the IHME’s model projects a total of 548,000 would die from the coronavirus through April 1, meaning 270,000 deaths between now and then.If COVID-19 vaccines are distributed at expected levels, 9,000 lives would be saved by April 1, reducing the number of deaths between now and then to 261,000. But a rapid vaccine rollout – one that would vaccinate the high-risk population and begin to vaccinate the general population by the spring -- would result in 250,000 deaths between now and April 1.“Mass scale-up of vaccination in 2021 means we have a path back to normal life, but there are still a few rough months ahead,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, IHME director. “We must be vigilant in protecting ourselves at least through April, when, as our projections indicate, vaccines will begin to have an impact.”In the meantime, Murray says universal mask wearing and social distancing will save more lives than a potential vaccine in the next four months.“Especially in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s crucial for governments to impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks. Where the winter surge is driving spikes in infections, there will be many people who can still become infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully rolled out,” said Murray.To see the IHME’s state-by-state projections for deaths, hospitalizations and cases, clickhere. 2790

The US officially relocated its Embassy to Jerusalem on Monday, formally upending decades of American foreign policy in a move that was met with clashes and protests along the Israeli-Gaza border.At least 43 Palestinians were killed in Gaza as deadly protests took place ahead of and during the ceremony in Jerusalem — making it the deadliest day there since the 2014 Gaza war.President Donald Trump did not attend the ceremony in Jerusalem's Arnona neighborhood, but in a video message broadcast at the event he congratulated Israel, saying the opening had been "a long time coming.""Today, Jerusalem is the seam of Israel's government. It is the home of the Israeli legislature and the Israeli supreme court and Israel's prime minister and president. Israel is a sovereign nation with the right like every other sovereign nation to determine its own capital, yet for many years, we failed to acknowledge the obvious, the plain reality that Israel's capital is Jerusalem," Trump said in the pre-recorded remarks. 1021

The success of a pilot test in a Nebraska county in which all people have the option to vote by mail has spurred the initiative in three more counties there.Turnout in Garden County for the May 15, 2018 primary, with an all-mail vote option, was more than 58 percent.Now, Dawes, Merrick and Morrill counties in Nebraska have been approved for all-mail voting for the election slated for next month, according to the Lincoln Journal Star.Factors that may keep people from going to physical polls include site accessibility, amount of poll workers available from three political parties and community feedback, the Associated Press reports.According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, at least 22 states have provisions allowing some elections to be done by all-mail voting. Three entire states — Colorado, Washington and Oregon — provide all-mail voting.In the 2014 election in Colorado, the vote-at-home option increased turnout by 3.3 percent, research shows. It was up among people with a history of low turnout.Vote-by-mail 1059

The San Luis Obispo County (California) Sheriff's Office confirms one of its deputies was shot early Wednesday morning in Paso Robles, California.At a Wednesday afternoon press conference, Sheriff Ian Parkinson described the incident as an “unprovoked attack on law enforcement” by a suspect “laying in ambush” at the police department in Paso Robles.According to officials, the situation began with shots fired at the Paso Robles Police Department building.San Luis Obispo County Sheriff's Office spokesperson Tony Cipolla says shots were fired at the Paso Robles Police Department building at about 3:15 a.m.The deputy was airlifted to a trauma center and is reportedly in serious but stable condition.Paso Robles police called for help from other agencies as they responded to the shooter outside, and Parkinson says the gunman shot at police cars as they entered the downtown area to assist.Officials released photos (pictured above) of a possible suspect wanted in connection with Wednesday's shooting. 1015

The United States’ Gross Domestic Product is expected to have a modest comeback in 2021 while unemployment will be slower to recover for years to come, according to a government projection from the Congressional Budget Office.The nonpartisan government agency that provides policy guidance for members of Congress said that unemployment is projected to remain above pre-pandemic levels through 2030.Thursday’s estimates from the CBO indicate that real GDP in 2021 will jump 4% in 2021 from 2020 after taking a projected 5.8% drop in 2020. The CBO then projects that real GDP will increase 2.9%. In years following, the GDP is expected to level off at 2.2%.But after unemployment dropped to 3.5% in 2019,, the unemployment rate is expected to be 7.6% in 2021, followed by 6.9% in 2022 and 5.9% in 2023 and 2024. Data released Thursday pegged the US unemployment rate at 11.1% in June.The CBO stresses there is uncertainty in its forecast given the pandemic.“The severity and duration of the pandemic are subject to significant uncertainty,” the CBO said. “In particular, several important epidemiological characteristics of the coronavirus remain unclear: Much still needs to be learned about its transmissibility and lethality and about the immunity conferred on people who have recovered from it. Moreover, the severity and duration of the pandemic will be affected by how various mitigation measures reduce the spread of the virus and by when vaccines and additional treatments become available—outcomes that remain highly uncertain.” 1544

来源：资阳报