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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) — Oceanside's shoreline was closed Tuesday after the sighting of a 9-foot long hammerhead shark. Oceanside Lifeguards temporarily closed the city's beaches from Wisconsin Ave. to Harbor Beach around 11:30 a.m. Police officers were dispatched on a boat offshore to keep an eye out for the shark, according to the city. The shark was last seen swimming about 100 yards offshore, south of the Oceanside Pier. The shoreline was reopened at 2:30 p.m. after a final search of the area came up empty.RELATED: 564

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — Almost two months after reopening, Universal Orlando is laying off an undisclosed number of workers. Universal spokesman Tom Schroder said in an email Monday that the Florida theme park resort was reducing its workforce "to reflect current priorities and needs." Universal has put the construction of a new theme park, Epic Universe, on pause because of the pandemic. Universal Orlando closed its doors in March as the novel coronavirus started spreading in the U.S. It was the first of Orlando's major theme park operators to reopen when it welcomed back visitors in early June. SeaWorld reopened in late June. Walt Disney World reopened last month. 679

OPA-LOCKA, Fla. (AP) — After 13 years, a South Florida city has overturned a ban on "saggy pants" — bottoms that reveal the wearer's underwear. The Opa-Locka City Commission voted Wednesday on a 4-1 vote to repeal both the original 2007 legislation and a 2013 ordinance that said women, not just men, could receive civil citations for wearing pants that exposed their undergarments. Some commissioners said they felt the ordinance disproportionately affected young, African-American men. Around the city, which is northeast of Miami, signs still warn folks of the ordinance. They showing an image of two young men wearing pants below their waists and featuring the words: "No ifs, ands or butts ... It's the city law!" 726

On Monday morning, Pfizer announced that so far in Phase 3 trials, its COVID-19 vaccine candidate has been 90% effective in promoting protection against the virus. And while the announcement has many Americans seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, the pandemic is still far from over.Pfizer's announcement on Monday is an encouraging sign, as it means that the company is on track to file for Emergency Use Authorization for the vaccine in the coming weeks. It also keeps the U.S. on a timeline to have at least one vaccine approved and available for distribution by the end of 2021.But Monday's announcement does not mean a vaccine is imminent. Pfizer is currently mass-manufacturing its vaccine candidate in the event it does receive Emergency Use Authorization from the FDA, and hopes to have 100 million doses of the vaccine ready to ship by year's end. But even if Pfizer is able to fulfill that ambitious order by Dec. 31, it would only be able to vaccinate about one-third of everyone in the county.Once the initial vaccine order has been completed, it will need to be rationed for those who need it most — likely health care workers, essential employees and people in high-risk populations. While it is unclear who exactly will be eligible to receive the vaccine first, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) says the early distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine will be "constrained tightly" and will be "highly targeted" to "achieve coverage in priority populations."Eventually, the U.S. hopes to grant emergency use authorization to several vaccine candidates — many of which are currently in production on orders from the U.S. government. HHS hopes that by the middle of next year, several vaccines will be approved and widely available. But at that point, officials will run into a second major hurdle — vaccine skepticism.Skepticism about vaccines has been on the rise in recent years, fueled in part by the spread of misinformation online. In particular, baseless conspiracies linking vaccines to autism have spread on social media, eroding public confidence in medicine. In addition, polarized politics in the U.S. have led to speculation that government leaders will approve an unsafe or ineffective vaccine for political purposes.Vaccines are only effective if enough members of the public become inoculated against a virus — if a virus has nowhere to spread, it will eventually die out. But Gallup polling released in October shows that just 50% of Americans say they would receive a COVID-19 vaccine if it had been approved by the FDA and available at no cost — far below the threshold for herd immunity, according to many health experts.The Gallup polling is consistent with AP polling from earlier this year that also only found 50% willingness to take a COVID-19 vaccine.All the while, the final push for a COVID-19 vaccine will be occurring during what members of the White House coronavirus task force warn will be the most concerning and deadly period of the pandemic. The virus is currently spreading in the U.S. faster than it has at any other point during the pandemic, just as Americans are moving social gatherings indoors where the virus is more likely to spread.To be clear, health officials' efforts to develop a safe and effective COVID-19 is a momentous and historic achievement — approving a vaccine for emergency use by the end of the year would shatter all previous records for vaccine development. But while there may be light at the end of the tunnel, it may take several months — or years — to reach the end of the pandemic. 3586