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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Students in the San Diego Continuing Education welding class have found their own unique way to honor the legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.They're building a scale replica of the Liberty Bell to enter as a float in this year's MLK Day Parade."The parade theme, every year, is Let Freedom Ring," says instructor Mike Bradbury. "So you have to come up with something that revolves around Let Freedom Ring."Recreating the Liberty Bell seemed like a natural fit, as it echos Dr. King's call for liberty and freedom."We talked about what that means to all Americans, not just a certain race," says Bradbury. "So they get to learn a lot of different aspects of what the man, Martin Luther King, stood for."They also learn about project management from a welding perspective. Students say it was a good way to break up the tedium of every day classes."This is a real world project," says second semester student Josh Zazueta. "We have a deadline. We have a budget.""With regular welding, there is problem solving," says student Donasia Brown. "But with this, it's about encountering issues and all of us saying how we're going to solve this together."The bell itself is quite an undertaking. It required more than 10,000 welding notches and about a mile of wiring to build. Students say they can't wait to see it roll down the road during Sunday's parade."It's definitely an honor to work on a project like this," says Brown.The Parade is from 2 p.m.-5 p.m. on Sunday, and it begins in front of the County Administration Building downtown.For more information about the parade, or to find out how to watch it live, click here. 1649

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The Downtown San Diego Partnership is relaunching a program to help businesses impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.A new round of the organization's Downtown Loyalty program launches at noon on Tuesday. It allows people to buy discounted gift cards to some of downtown's most recognizable restaurants, coffee shops, retail, and services."It's a digital gift card sale," said Sarah Brothers, marketing and communications director for the Downtown San Diego Partnership. "So you're able to buy a gift card to your favorite downtown locations. And for every purchase, you get a free funded by philanthropy."It allows the customer to get more than what they paid for, and it's extra revenue for the business at the receiving end.The program is made possible through fundraising and donations.The first round of the Downtown Loyalty program's gift card sale sold out in four days when it launched in July. It provided nearly ,000 in direct revenue to struggling businesses in downtown San Diego. There is hope the second round of gift card sales will have even more significant impact, with nearly ,000 to support businesses. 1163

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Thanksgiving with the Salvation Army will be different in 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic."We knew that we were going to do something," says Captain Sean Kelsley, who oversees the Salvation Army East County Operations. "The question was, what would it look like?"For the past 30 years, the Salvation Army held large, family-style gatherings to feed people experiencing homelessness, the disabled, and families in need at Golden Hall for Thanksgiving. They plan for 1,800 people, plus volunteers.But a gathering of 2,000+ people is strictly forbidden under California and San Diego County COVID-19 guidelines.In its place, the Salvation Army will offer "grab-and-go" style meals at four locations around the county."We're just glad to be able to be here," says Captain Kelsey. "However people celebrate the holidays, they'll at least be able to get some turkey and some gravy and all that good stuff."People will also receive an additional bag of fruit and snacks with their meals.In addition to providing food, Captain Kelsey says it's a way to connect with people and help them through whatever hardships they face."It allows us to encourage people and find out about a situation that is so dire, that maybe we can wrap around that individual that family, get them plugged in, and get them connected so they can get back on their feet," he says.Service for the meals will start at 11 am at the following locations:Oceanside Corps: 3935 Lake Blvd, Oceanside, CA 92056Centre City Corps: 825 7th Avenue, San Diego, CA 92101Citadel Corps: 4170 Balboa Ave, San Diego, CA 92117El Cajon Red Shield Center: 1025 E. Main St, El Cajon, CA 92021 1671

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The Fourth of July is traditionally a fun-filled weekend for locals to enjoy delicious food and take in a fireworks show. And while the pandemic has put some limits on that, there are still ways to have fun safely.El Cajon and Poway are hosting fireworks displays and encouraging residents to practice social distancing by staying in their car or watching the show from a distance.The Del Mar Fairgrounds also continues to host delicious fair food weekends with Chicken Charlies, Roxy's, and many more delectable treats — all from the comfort of your car drive-thru style.Balboa Park is also reopening several museums with guidelines in place to keep visitors safe.(As a reminder, residents are encouraged to stay home if they feel ill and avoid large gatherings with people not from the same household. The county also requires residents to practice social distancing and wear a facial covering when within six feet of those not from the same household.)Balboa Park museum reopenings (Friday): Starting Friday, several Balboa Park museums will reopen with new sanitation and distancing guidelines in place. The Fleet Science Center, San Diego Natural History Museum, San Diego History Center, and more will welcome visitors back this weekend for months-long closures. More infoEl Cajon July 4 fireworks (Saturday): Locals in El Cajon will be able to catch fireworks over John F. Kennedy Park at 9 p.m. on July 4, though the park itself will be closed. The show will be visible over a wide area and city officials encourage residents to look up and enjoy the show from home safely. More infoPoway's July 4 fireworks (Saturday): Fireworks will launch from both Poway High School and Sportsplex in South Poway Business Park at 9 p.m. on July 4. The two locations will allow for a nearly 360-degree view of fireworks from the Sportsplex while allowing those who traditionally view the show near the high school to continue doing so. Tickets must be purchased to watch the show from Lake Poway's parking lot. More infoSan Diego County Fair food fun (Friday-Sunday): What's the July 4 weekend without some fair food? The Del Mar Fairgrounds is offering delicious bites from fair vendors Friday through Sunday from now until Sept. 7. Grab a bit from vendors like Chicken Charlies, Roxy's, Sugar Bear, and more! The fair is also hosting virtual exhibits showcasing student artwork, photography, and livestock shows. More info 2445