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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

ORLANDO, Fla. – Friday, the nation remembers one of the deadliest mass shootings in United States history.June 12 is the fourth anniversary of the Pulse nightclub massacre in Orlando, Florida.On that day in 2016, Omar Mateen opened fire inside of the LGBT club, killing a total of 49 people. More than 50 others were injured.Police shot and killed Mateen during the events of that night.In honor of the shooting victims, Gov. Ron DeSantis has ordered all flags in the state to be flown at half-staff on Friday.The Orlando community also plans to hold a tribute and a remembrance ceremony virtually, due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.During prior anniversaries, the community has gathered outside the club to remember the victims. This year, the area around the business was closed to public, but survivors, family members of victims and first responders are being allowed to visit. 895

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — Almost two months after reopening, Universal Orlando is laying off an undisclosed number of workers. Universal spokesman Tom Schroder said in an email Monday that the Florida theme park resort was reducing its workforce "to reflect current priorities and needs." Universal has put the construction of a new theme park, Epic Universe, on pause because of the pandemic. Universal Orlando closed its doors in March as the novel coronavirus started spreading in the U.S. It was the first of Orlando's major theme park operators to reopen when it welcomed back visitors in early June. SeaWorld reopened in late June. Walt Disney World reopened last month. 679

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) -- An Oceanside man convicted of kidnapping and killing a 3-week-old baby girl and trying to kill the infant’s parents and uncle was sentenced to nearly 142 years to life in prison.Anthony Ray McCall, 32, was found guilty of first-degree murder, kidnapping and attempted kidnapping, along with four counts of attempted murder on March 2.A jury in Long Beach deliberated for less than three hours before returning with a verdict.A co-defendant in the case, Giseleangelique Rene D'Milian, pleaded no contest to first-degree murder for the murder of Eliza De La Cruz as well as for the attempted murders of the infant’s father and uncle.The woman was sentenced to 25 years to life in prison.Eliza’s body was found in a San Diego trash bin in 2015.Eliza’s mother said during testimony that she pleaded with McCall not to take her baby. "I couldn't do anything to stop him," Honorato said. She said she could hear the voice of a woman telling her daughter, "I'm your new mommy."She said the voice was the same as the woman who offered her a ride home earlier in the day.A third defendant, Todd Damon Boudreaux, 46 pleaded guilty to being an accessory after the fact in October of 2016 and was sentenced to time served. 1246

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) - Whale watchers enjoyed a rare encounter off the Southern California coast Monday: four orcas teaming up to prey on dolphins. “It’s very, very rare,” said Oceanside Whale Watching manager Carla Mitroff. The company had a boat full of whale watchers off San Clemente when the orcas appeared. Boat Captain Shane and staff biologist Lauren Turley captured the moment. “They were thrilled beyond thrilled,” Mitroff said of the passengers. “It’s the holy grail of whale watching.” The Eastern Tropical Pacific orcas pass through Southern California after a stop in Mexico, Mitroff said. The whale watching team hasn’t seen orcas in more than a year. Monday, the orca pod preyed on two baby dolphins as the mother tried to fight the killer whales. It's not unusual for orcas to eat larger mammals.“The diet of orcas depends to some extent on what is available where they live,” according to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. One ecotype of orcas in the Pacific Northwest eats fish, while other ecotypes eat marine mammals and squid. Killer whales are “considered a top predator, eating near the top of the food chain.” 1171