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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

Of all the campaign slogans for 2020, Allison Ali is following motherly advice from her childhood.“My Mama always said, ‘if you don’t vote, you don’t have a voice,’” she said. “So, it’s put up or shut up.”Ali is taking those wise words on the road and also taking voters to the polls for free.“It’s important to me, because everybody needs to be heard,” she said.This election season, Ali is one of hundreds of people working for the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America during a campaign called “Roll to the Polls.”“We have a real opportunity to impact the elections,” said NACA CEO Bruce Marks.Marks’ team has 100 vans in Atlanta and 50 more in Houston with a goal of getting 100,000 voters from their houses to their polling locations free of charge.“It is very emotional because we’ve been through a lot,” Marks said of these free rides. “We’ve seen the voter suppression and we’ve seen how people’s rights are taken away. So, it’s crucial that everybody’s voice is heard.”Across the country, rideshare apps, colleges and even some concerned citizens are offering voters free rides to the election sites.While some political science experts warn that free rides could be used as a way to manipulate voters, others are calling it a sign of inspiration.“I want to do my part, honestly, to get them out,” said Atlanta-based voter Pamela Chaney, a self-described vibrant senior.Chaney says this election is the most crucial of her lifetime and that’s why she’s now thinking about volunteering to drive voters to polls, especially those in her community, where public transportation isn’t an option.“A lot of people probably want to come out, but they don’t have the means; transportation. They’re probably elderly,” she said.According to the American Association of Retired People, 71% of Americans over the age of 65 voted during the last presidential election, a group Ali hopes to steer clear from any of kind of voter suppression.“We have people who think their votes aren’t going to count,” she said. “They don’t think the mail is going to get their in time. That’s a scary thing.”While behind the wheel, Ali is still following her mother’s advice and driving down a road that others helped pave the way.“We have ancestors that fought for us to be able to come out here and vote,” she said. “This election for me is very important.” 2355

On October 11, a little less than two weeks before the discovery of the first of 13 improvised explosive devices he is suspected of sending to prominent Democrats and CNN's New York offices, Cesar Sayoc tweeted at Rochelle Ritchie."We will see you 4 sure.Hug your loved ones real close every time you leave you home," the tweet read in part.Ritchie, a political analyst who frequently appears on television, reported the tweet to Twitter as abuse. The response she received from the company said the tweet and the threat it implied didn't qualify as a "violation of the Twitter rules against abusive behavior."When Sayoc was arrested on Friday, the tweet was still live.Twitter has repeatedly said it is working on combating harassment and abuse on its platform. But people who use Twitter have said over and over again it is not doing enough. It is not uncommon for users to report explicit threats of violence and then, to their dismay, see an automated response saying that there was no violation of its rules.In Sayoc's case, an opportunity to alert authorities to someone openly threatening public figures — someone who allegedly tried to make good on those threats — may have been missed because Twitter failed to act.Twitter's email to Ritchie specifically said that the company will "not tolerate behavior that crosses the line into abuse, including behavior that harasses, intimidates, or uses fear to silence another user's voice." But still Sayoc's tweet to Ritchie remained live."You think to yourself 'if you see something, say something,' and then when you say something it's ignored," Ritchie told CNN Business on Friday. "It is really irritating that these social media sites do not take these things seriously."Friday evening, after a tweet Ritchie sent pointing out what had happened had become popular on the site and gotten attention from media outlets, Twitter sent her a new email."Please disregard our last reply as it was sent in error. We apologize for any inconvenience," it began. "We've investigated and suspended the account you reported as it was found to be participating in abusive behavior."Ritchie didn't buy it."They're trying to cover their ass," she told CNN Business.The tweet directed at Ritchie was only one of many similar examples from Sayoc's accounts.On September 20, in response to a tweet from President Trump, Sayoc posted a self-shot video of himself at what appears to be a Donald Trump rally.The text of the tweet threatened former Vice President Joe Biden and former attorney general Eric Holder, both of whom were targeted by improvised explosive devices discovered this week."Go Trump Trump Trump hey Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. And Eric Himpton Holder Sr. Stick your BS all crap you talk where sun doesn't shine . We will meet your threats right to your face soon.Not option we will see you soon .Hug loved ones real close we aren't ones," the tweet read.On September 18th, Sayoc tweeted a picture of Biden's home and wrote, "Hug your loved son,Niece,wife family real close everytime U walk out your home."Both tweets were still live on Twitter when Sayoc was arrested. Twitter suspended Sayoc's accounts late Friday afternoon.CNN Business asked Twitter multiple questions about Sayoc and his tweets on Friday: Why was the tweet directed at Ritchie not deemed a violation of the company's rules? Why was the threat against Biden and Holder still live on the platform? Does Twitter monitor the responses to tweets by the president of the United States to look for threats? Does it proactively monitor for threats to public figures like Biden and Holder?The company's only response was, "This is an ongoing law enforcement investigation. We do not have a comment."A Facebook spokesperson told CNN that the company had removed Sayoc's account on Friday. The spokesperson said that several of Sayoc's previous posts had violated Facebook's community standards, and had been removed before he was arrested, but that none of his posts which were reported to or discovered by Facebook contained violations of its rules severe enough to remove the account entirely."There is absolutely no place on our platforms for people who attempt such horrendous acts. We have found and immediately removed the suspect's accounts on Facebook and Instagram," Facebook said in a statement. 4348

On my podcast with @joerogan he offered to moderate a debate between @JoeBiden and @realDonaldTrump It would be four hours with no live audience. Just the two candidates, cameras, and their vision of how to move this country forward. Who wants this? #debates #Election2020— Tim Kennedy (@TimKennedyMMA) September 13, 2020 329

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) - An Oceanside man says he and his puppy were mauled by an unleashed dog while out for an evening walk. On Monday around 11 p.m. near Albertsons on Mission Avenue, Kevin Humphrey was taking his 7-month-old terrier mix Stitch out for his final walk when he saw a homeless man and his brown-and-white pit bull, loose. Humphrey says the owner managed to catch up to the dog and leash him.Humphrey went on with his walk along the back side of the shopping center, when he says he saw the dog, unleashed again. Humphrey picked his dog up and started running, but didn't get far."It just starts biting at me and biting at me. He tries to bite my dog's throat out," said Humphrey.Humphrey says the dog bit him in the back and arm before latching onto his puppy's throat. His puppy's life on the line, Humphrey jammed his hand into pit bull's jaws."I put my hand in the dog's mouth so he wouldn't bite. I'm crying, 'Don't kill my dog! Don't kill my dog!" said Humphrey.After a tortuous 20 minutes, the dog finally let go. Humphrey raced to get help for his dog and then himself. Stitch suffered more than a dozen bites. For Humphrey, torn tendons and bone fragments in his hand led to two surgeries.The San Diego Humane Society says the homeless man contends Humphrey went into his tent and provoked his 4-year-old dog, which Humphrey denies. The pit bull is under a 10-day quarantine. If he's reclaimed, he'll have to wear a muzzle. 1458