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Predicting the outcome of elections can sometimes be easy. Other years, it is not. Professor Allan Lichtman has predicted every election since 1984, using a model he developed alongside Soviet Union scientists.One of Lichtman's proudest achievements was accurately predicting the 2016 election. President Donald Trump signed a Washington Post article about Lichtman in recent years with his autograph and the phrase "good call."THE METHODLichtman doesn't look at polls."Polls are not predictors, they are misused as predictors," Lichtman said.Instead, Lichtman looks at the political party currently controlling the White House. Then he uses 13 keys to gauge whether the party controlling the White House will lose or not.They are: midterm gains, no contest in the primary, incumbency, no third party, strong short-term economy, strong long-term economy, major policy change, no social unrest, no scandal, no overseas failure, major overseas achievement, charismatic incumbent, uncharismatic opponent."If six or more, any six more, turn against the party holding the White House, they are a predicted loser," Luchtman said.2020 PREDICTIONLichtman says before 2020, Trump appeared to be heading to a reelection. However Trump has now lost seven keys.In Lichtman's opinion, Trump has lost midterm gains, short term economy, long-term economy, no social unrest, no scandal, major overseas achievement, and charismatic incumbent."Could I be wrong? Of course human beings are wrong. But my keys have quite a track record," Lichtman said. 1541

President Donald Trump argued Friday that trade wars can be good, even though his promise of steel and aluminum tariffs rattled markets."When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win," Trump wrote on Twitter.He added, "Example, when we are down 0 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don't trade anymore-we win big. It's easy!"Trump's plan, announced on Thursday, will impose a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% tariff on aluminum. The announcement caught investors off guard and immediately raised concerns about retaliation from China or other major US trading partners.   718

President Donald Trump once again floated the idea of adding a "Space Force" as a branch of the US military on Tuesday at the White House.Trump's comments came as he presented the Army college football team with the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, annually awarded to the best college football team among Army, Navy and Air Force."You will be part of the five proud branches of the United States Armed Forces: Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force and the Coast Guard," Trump said, addressing the Army football team. "And we're actually thinking about a sixth, and that would be the Space Force. Does that make sense?" Trump said. "... because we're getting very big in space, both militarily and for other reasons, and we're seriously thinking about the Space Force."Tuesday wasn't the first time Trump has floated the idea of a military branch dedicated for fighting wars in space. In March at a speech in San Diego, Trump broached the idea for the first time publicly."We may even have a 'space force,'" Trump said, according to Scripps station KGTV in San Diego. "We're doing a tremendous amount of work in space. I said maybe we'll need a new force. We'll call it 'the space force.'""Our service members will be vital to ensuring America continues to lead the way into the stars," Trump continued. "We're way, way behind."The Washington Post points out that the United States signed the Outer Space Treaty in 1967, promising not to test weapons in outer space or establish military bases on the moon or other celestial bodies — though it points out that there is no enforcement mechanism in place to stop the US from doing so.Alex Hider is a writer for the E.W. Scripps National Desk. Follow him on Twitter @alexhider. 1731

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Federal officers deployed tear gas and fired less-lethal rounds into a crowd of protesters in Oregon late Thursday. Video shows many protesters leaving the area near the federal courthouse in Portland as smoke filled the air. The actions came just hours after the head of the Department of Homeland Security called the protesters “violent anarchists.” Homeland Security Acting Secretary Chad Wolf says state and city authorities are to blame for not putting an end to the protests.Protests have taken place for nearly two months since the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis. President Donald Trump recently deployed federal agents to “quell” the demonstrations in Portland that began after George Floyd’s death at the hands of Minneapolis police, shining an unwelcome spotlight as the city struggles to find a way forward. The national attention comes as divisions deepen among elected officials about the legitimacy of the more violent protests — striking at the heart of Portland’s identity as an ultraliberal haven where protest is seen as a badge of honor.Local officials say they didn't ask for help from federal law enforcement and want them to leave. 1189

President Donald Trump publicly broke his silence Thursday morning on the sentencing of his former personal attorney and "fixer" Michael Cohen."I never directed Michael Cohen to break the law. He was a lawyer and he is supposed to know the law," Trump tweeted."It is called 'advice of counsel,' and a lawyer has great liability if a mistake is made," he added.Cohen was sentenced to three years in prison Wednesday for crimes that included making false statements to Congress, tax evasion, and arranging payments during the 2016 election to silence women who claimed they had affairs with Trump. Trump denies those claims. Cohen attributed his offenses related to Trump to his "duty to cover up his dirty deeds."Although Trump denies directly ordering Cohen to break the law, Trump's comments leave open the technical possibility that he directed Cohen to make payments that were ultimately unlawful.As the courtroom drama unfolded Wednesday, Trump remained largely silent and ignored reporters' questions about Cohen during an executive order signing event at the White House.But CNN reported that the President was privately seething about Cohen's sentencing, telling associates that Cohen is a "liar," according to one administration official. While the White House did not comment on Trump's private conversations, one official pointed to a tweet Trump sent last week as an indication of his sentiments."He lied for this outcome and should, in my opinion, serve a full and complete sentence," Trump tweeted about Cohen last week.The-CNN-Wire? & ? 2018 Cable News Network, Inc., a Time Warner Company. All rights reserved. 1637