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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

As the saying goes, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. And when it comes to appreciating art, that may be more true than ever. It's so subjective and comes down to true appreciation. One woman understands that more than most.To Myrna Hayutin the photos on her gallery wall are more than pictures of the past. She points out some of the art on display.  "This is a limited edition signed by Carl Mydans," Hayutin said. "This is Babe Ruth the last time he put on his uniform."These are works of art."It is history," Hayutin said. "It's just knowledge."And for the last 35 years she's been selling fine art like these pieces, despite the fact that she's legally blind."I anticipate doing this for at least another 10 years," Hayutin said. "As long as my eyesight holds."Hayutin started losing her eyesight when she was eight due to retinitis pigmentosa. And over the years, it's gotten progressively worse."It's like an island," Hayutin said. "As the disease progresses the island gets smaller and smaller now I see through two straws. So you may be standing right here but I am not seeing you. Or if were talking and you move I'll lose you."Still it hasn't affected her love for art or her determination to purse it as a career."It never occurred to me to stop me from doing anything that I really wanted to do," Hayutin said.Hayutin runs a successful international fine art gallery, Gallery M, and recently became an art appraiser."I'm looking at the artwork but honestly thank goodness with my devices I can really zoom in and see them much, much better," Hayutin said.Hayutin said her dog, Gouda, helps her navigate the changes in her eyesight, but what helps most is not focusing on what could happen."I would never have opened the gallery if I was fearful of what would be instead of what was at that time," Hayutin said. "I try to live in today and use the eyesight that I have today."Hayutin said every day is what you make it."There are some days where I'm not as positive as I should be, but I try it," Hauytin said. "I try to get back on that positive I mean because I'm surrounded by all of this gorgeous art and that's very uplifting."  2212

As the saying goes, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. And when it comes to appreciating art, that may be more true than ever. It's so subjective and comes down to true appreciation. One woman understands that more than most.To Myrna Hayutin the photos on her gallery wall are more than pictures of the past. She points out some of the art on display.  "This is a limited edition signed by Carl Mydans," Hayutin said. "This is Babe Ruth the last time he put on his uniform."These are works of art."It is history," Hayutin said. "It's just knowledge."And for the last 35 years she's been selling fine art like these pieces, despite the fact that she's legally blind."I anticipate doing this for at least another 10 years," Hayutin said. "As long as my eyesight holds."Hayutin started losing her eyesight when she was eight due to retinitis pigmentosa. And over the years, it's gotten progressively worse."It's like an island," Hayutin said. "As the disease progresses the island gets smaller and smaller now I see through two straws. So you may be standing right here but I am not seeing you. Or if were talking and you move I'll lose you."Still it hasn't affected her love for art or her determination to purse it as a career."It never occurred to me to stop me from doing anything that I really wanted to do," Hayutin said.Hayutin runs a successful international fine art gallery, Gallery M, and recently became an art appraiser."I'm looking at the artwork but honestly thank goodness with my devices I can really zoom in and see them much, much better," Hayutin said.Hayutin said her dog, Gouda, helps her navigate the changes in her eyesight, but what helps most is not focusing on what could happen."I would never have opened the gallery if I was fearful of what would be instead of what was at that time," Hayutin said. "I try to live in today and use the eyesight that I have today."Hayutin said every day is what you make it."There are some days where I'm not as positive as I should be, but I try it," Hauytin said. "I try to get back on that positive I mean because I'm surrounded by all of this gorgeous art and that's very uplifting."  2212

As the debate over arming teachers in schools reverberates across the country, Kansas is doubling down on the idea.A new bill would not only authorize the arming of Kansas school staff, it would hold schools responsible if a shooting were to occur and the teachers and staff present were not allowed to be armed.Here's the exact wording?from House Bill 2789:"In any action against a unified school district arising out of acts or omissions regarding the possession or use of firearms on the premises of such school district, there shall be a rebuttable presumption of negligence on the part of such school district when it is shown by evidence that such school district did not authorize any employee of such school district, other than school security officers, to carry concealed handguns..."The House bill is causing some serious contention in the Kansas state capitol. During a House Insurance Committee hearing on Tuesday, Rep. Blake Carpenter, one of the bill's authors, quoted the movie "American Sniper" and said violence in school was a matter of "when" and not "if.""It's not if our kids will be killed; it is when they will be killed and what we are doing to prevent it," he said,?according to the Kansas City Star.CNN has reached out to Carpenter for comment.The bill has received significant pushback. A group of protesters was present at Tuesday's hearing, and Rep. Brett Parker, a Democratic opponent of the bill, shared a photo of stacks of papers he says are written testimonies against it.Kansas teachers?are technically already allowed by state law to carry guns on public school campuses as long as they have a permit and meet any school-specific requirements. But according to the Kansas City Star the 2013 legislation caused problems with insurance providers for some of the state's school districts, who refused to extend coverage because of the liability of armed staff.As a result, some districts put their own policies in place, overriding the law and disallowing the concealed carry of weapons on school property.The bill currently before the House committee also addresses this by forbidding insurance companies from refusing coverage just because a school district allows teachers and staff to be armed."No insurance company shall charge unfair discriminatory premiums, policy fees or rates for, or refuse to provide, any policy or contract of real or personal property insurance, liability insurance or policy containing liability coverage for any unified school district solely because such school district authorizes employees of such school district to carry concealed handguns on the premises of schools and attendance centers operated by such school district..." the bill states. 2742

Authorities say a resident who suspected a man was drunk and got behind the wheel flagged down an officer, who was later shot and killed during the traffic stop.Stanislaus County sheriff's Sgt. Tom Letras told the Modesto Bee newspaper Friday night that the resident didn't see Cpl. Ronil Singh pull over the vehicle but heard the gunshots minutes later.Gustavo Perez Arriaga was captured Friday after a manhunt following Singh's killing Wednesday. Authorities say he was in the country illegally and was fleeing back to his native Mexico.Seven other people have been arrested on suspicion of helping Perez Arriaga, including his girlfriend and two of his brothers.Letras says Arriaga is expected to be arraigned on charges Wednesday. 742