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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

ASHLAND, Ore. -- In the Rogue Valley of southern Oregon, you’ll find rows upon rows of vineyards. Rob Folin is the winemaker at Belle Fiore in Ashland.Although the grapes are different, the dry climate is similar to Napa Valley, making it very ideal conditions for wine-making. However, just like other crops, the weather can have a huge impact on wine grapes. As a winemaker, Folin says he needs to know what his vineyards are facing and how to handle what Mother Nature throws at him.“Rain, snow, frost, smoke, fire, we’ve got it all,” Folin said.In the summertime, it can be clear one day and smoky the next.“Right during harvest or right before is when it’s the worst time to have smoke – which would be right now,” Folin said.Harvest season in southern Oregon typically starts in mid-September and goes until mid-October. Folin says one of the stressors for a winemaker is smoke taint. That’s when smoke gets trapped in the skin of the grapes giving them a campfire aroma and ashy texture. It’s a flavor very few people enjoy.“If your vineyard had a fire right next to it and you just had solid smoke coming in there, then you can really have this barbecue or campfire kind of aroma,” Folin said.Unless you send your grapes in somewhere to get tested, Folin says there’s no way to know your grapes have smoke taint until they go through fermentation. He says whether a grape is impacted or not depends on a lot of factors, and it’s very unpredictable.“Our vineyard here could be totally fine, and the one across the street, their resulting wines could be smoky, like it’s just how the wind goes, the intensity of the smoke, how long it was there, how close it was, did it settle overnight.”When it comes down to it, there’s only so much you can control. As of right now, not much can be done to prevent smoke taint, and smoky summers in the western U.S. seems to be the norm lately.Folin says winemakers that face a lot of smoke taint can make more white wines since white wines are fermented without the grape skin. Or they can market their wines to consumers as a smoky wine for those that like the taste. At the end of the day, Folin says winemakers have to go with the flow.“Just roll with it," Folin said. "Ya know, fix what you can. If you can’t do anything about it, what can you do? Do what you can do and move forward.”With the exception of one fire near the vineyard in the past month, Folin says it’s been a very great year for his vineyard. He’s hopeful something good can come out of 2020 after all.“With all the stuff that’s going on, maybe we’ll have the best grapes this year. I don’t know. Just going to count on that.” 2649

As the chaotic 2020 presidential race enters its final stretch, Vice President Mike Pence and Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris will square off in a debate at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday in Salt Lake City.The COVID-19 pandemic will be at the forefront of Wednesday's debate — both literally and figuratively. As the nation seeks more info regarding President Donald Trump's health amid his COVID-19 infection, both Pence and Harris have agreed to allow debate officials to install plexiglass shields next to their podiums.Harris' staff initially requested the shields, citing the COVID-19 outbreak that's infected several White House staffers. After initially saying the shields were not necessary, Pence's staff agreed to the change on Tuesday night.The Associated Press reports that both Harris and Pence tested negative for the virus on Tuesday morning.Wednesday's debate will be broken into nine 10-minute segments. Each candidate will have two minutes to answer a question from moderator Susan Page, and the other candidate will then have two minutes to respond.The 2020 VP debate will likely hold more important than in years past, given the ages of Trump and his opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden. Trump, 74, was the oldest candidate ever to be elected president in 2016, and Biden, 77, is three years older than Trump. Amid a global pandemic, voters may be taking a keen interest in each administration's chain of command.The Trump campaign is banking on a strong performance from Pence amid slumping poll numbers. An average of national polls shows Biden leading Trump by about nine percentage points, and a recent CNN poll released this week showed that 57% of likely voters favored Biden, compared to just 41% for Trump.Wednesday may also mark the last debate for at least a few weeks. There are two more presidential debates scheduled between now and Nov. 3, but Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis has put the status of the second debate — currently scheduled for a week from Thursday — in doubt. Trump says he still plans to participate, but Biden has said the debate should not take place if the president is still infected with the virus due to safety concerns. 2196

As we inch toward another national election, it may seem that bridging social, economic and political division is insurmountable. But one artist has spent years bringing people together with a message of reconciliation.Rich Alapack is the founder of “We All Live Here”, a project that aims to build unity through community partnerships and public art installations.For the last five years, he’s been spreading his message of positivity and inclusiveness through interactive murals.He’s brought together students, educators and businesses to spread the message that “we all live here.”“Income equality, gender equality, racial equality, sexual equality, the environment, all fall under the umbrella of these four really simple words,” explained Alapack.When he first began his work, he was surprised at how much the phrase resonated.“I started getting messages from people all over the world encouraging me to keep spreading this message,” he said.He created a program for schools called ACT, which stands for art, community and technology. So far, he’s worked with 110 different schools and shared the message of positive inclusiveness with almost 40,000 kids.“With this division that's happening in our society these days, you can't tell someone that they're wrong and expect them to change their mind,” said Alapack. “So, this phrase ‘we all live here’ as a phrase to respond when they hear something hateful.”Seven thousand colorful magnetic panels outside one school mural he installed will eventually have messages scribbled on the underside by eighth-graders.“Believe in yourself, and you can do it,” read Alapack from one panel.A two-year study released this past summer by Beyond Conflict, tapped brain and behavioral scientists to look at toxic polarization in the U.S. What they found suggests that the divide is more a function of perception than reality.It’s something Alapack believes we can change.“It's indisputable. We do all live here, and so, from there you can find other common grounds and repair maybe some of this divide,” he said.And whether through chalk, paint or magnetic panels, Alapack says he hopes creativity and engagement will inspire others to look beyond differences to find understanding.“Creativity is this unique superpower that humans have, and if you can get someone to do something that they don't think they can, then all of a sudden that opens their horizons to what other things they might be able to do that they don’t think they can do.” 2490

AURORA, Colo. — An Aurora police officer has been suspended for one week following a well-publicized incident in which the white officer pulled a gun on an Indian American doctor who was trying to park at a refugee center the doctor operates.The Sentinel reports that Officer Justin Henderson with the Aurora Police Department was suspended for 40 hours without pay and ordered to attend de-escalation training for his March 1 confrontation with Dr. P.J. Parmar.Parmar, who is Indian American, says he's disappointed with the punishment and that he believes his race affected how Henderson treated him.His attorney has said he plans to file a federal lawsuit against the city.In a June interview, Parmar told Scripps station KMGH in Denver that he wants to see reforms made in the Aurora Police Department.He said on March 1 that he was moving Boy Scout gear from the Mango House — a shared space for refugees and asylees — to another property, when he noticed a police car parked in his ground-level garage, partially blocking the exit. Pamar said he honked his car.Pamar then claims the officer jumped out of the vehicle, swore at him and pulled out a gun as he ran toward the car.Pamar then started recording the interaction on his phone. It shows Pamar asking Henderson to leave his property."No, I'm going to figure out whose property this is first," Henderson said.At one point, Parmar said Henderson pointed a gun at his face."The gun pointed at me — it was scary, but it's not what hurt the most," Parmar said in June. "What hurt the most was him questioning whether or not I owned that property."Parmar said what happened to him speaks to generations of trauma that people of color have faced in the U.S.See KMGH's report on the incident from June below. APD launches internal investigation of officer who drew gun on local doctor entering own property This story was originally published by The Associated Press and Stephanie Butzer on KMGH in Denver. 2011