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As new wildfires force tens of thousands of people out of their homes, reports are emerging of flaws in emergency alert systems throughout the west."Where I think the false sense of security was, if something really bad is going to happen, we'll get alerted well beforehand," said Vacaville resident, Will Carlson.Carlson and several of his neighbors say they received no warnings as the Hennessey Fire inched closer to their homes. At around midnight, Carlson saw the flames moving quickly down a hill in the distance. Carlson was one of the last to leave, working frantically to help save animals on the property."What I remember is this sinking feeling in my stomach, and this helplessness that this barn is going to go up in flames, and the horses will be burned alive," said Carlson.After making it out safely, Carlson was left wondering how this could have happened. "Every neighbor that we talked to it was the same story, we knew there was a fire in the area, we thought that we would get alerted, and nothing was said to us," said Carlson. Le'Ron Cummings, public information officer for the Solano County Sheriff's Office, says alerts went out to these areas. However, they cannot guarantee the targeted population will get the message if cell service, internet, or landline signals are impacted. He says it was determined that cellular services and power were affected by the fire.Solano County uses the Everbridge platform to alert residents via the AlertSolano program, delivering Amber Alert-style messages. Cummings says during an evacuation, the Solano County Sheriff's Office and allied law agencies do door-to-door notifications in addition to AlertSolano messaging. The Sheriff's office also uses the High-Low Siren system familiar in Europe to advise residents to evacuate immediately.Carlson says he is frustrated with the response because he believes he had full cellular service throughout the night, texting and posting to social media as he evacuated. "So I think that's where the frustration came in from that night. How many animals could have been saved? Could there have been less loss of life? And could structures have been defended better if we had more warning?" said Carlson. Carlson says two people in his neighborhood died in the fire; however, county officials say they have no reason to believe the alert system was associated with fire-related deaths.Napa County also experienced some kinks with its alert system, when a coding error prevented an alert from going out. Emergency officials say it was an error on the part of its vendor and that the message was not urgent. Staff realized the problem, and they were able to use a different platform to send out the alert. "It happens over and over again," said Art Botterell, who is now retired from the State of California's Office of Emergency Services.Botterell led the effort to develop the Common Alerting Protocol, which he says led to the creation of the FEMA Integrated Public Warning System and some products from the National Weather Service."We've got a pretty good penetration of cellphones, sirens, and telephone dialer systems, that's not usually what breaks down. What usually breaks down is that alert is not sent in time or not sent at all," said Botterell. He says during a 2017 wildfire in Sonoma County, that would prove deadly and destructive, officials failed to send an alert, fearing it would cause panic and clog roadways. Botterell says another reason alerts are often not sent is because officials believe they don't have enough information."It is fair to say that in a lot of cases, we have not given our public safety people the tools to issue public safety warnings effectively," said Botterell. Botterell says more training is needed and believes state and federal governments should provide more guidance to ensure effective responses.With the vulnerabilities in cellular towers and alert systems as a whole, Botterell says counties must utilize several tools to try and reach everyone."We've got a lot of technology. Now we need to get good at using it." 4083

As states prepare to assist in distributing potential coronavirus vaccines by November 1, Surgeon General Jerome Adams doubted a vaccine would be ready so soon.Speaking to ABC’s Good Morning America, Adams said a Nov. 1 vaccine was “possible, but not probable.”Last week, the federal government asked states to be prepared to begin assisting in distribution of COVID-19 vaccines to the public this fall.The memo signed by CDC head Robert Redfield told governors that the federal government has contracted with the McKesson Corporation to assist in distributing the vaccine to local and state health departments, medical facilities, doctor officers, and other vaccine providers.So why is the government getting states ready for a vaccine on November 1 even if it’s unlikely a vaccine will be approved by then?"It's not contradictory information," Adams told Good Morning America. "We've always said that we're hopeful for a vaccine by the end of this year or the beginning of next year.""We want to make sure states are available to distribute it," he added.While there is urgency for both public health and economic reasons for a vaccine, some experts have expressed concern over the speed of a vaccine and whether the expedited timeline is long enough to demonstrate efficacy. Dr. Anthony Fauci told NBC News on Wednesday that he believes a “safe and effective” vaccine could be ready by the end of the year."I believe that by the time we get to the end of this calendar year, that we will feel comfortable that we do have a safe and effective vaccine," he told NBC News.On Monday, a third vaccine candidate entered “Phase 3” trials in the US. AstraZeneca is testing its COVID-19 vaccine candidate for 30,000 participants. The AstraZeneca vaccine would come in two separate doses, according to the National Institutes of Health.Even though a vaccine could be ready by year’s end, trials will be expected to continue for over a year to monitor for possible side effects.According to the FDA, a typical Phase 3 trial would take one to three years.“NIH is committed to supporting several Phase 3 vaccine trials to increase the odds that one or more will be effective in preventing COVID-19 and put us on the road to recovery from this devastating pandemic,” said NIH Director Francis S. Collins, M.D., Ph.D. “We also know that preventing this disease could require multiple vaccines and we’re investing in those that we believe have the greatest potential for success.”On Friday, President Donald Trump reiterated that a vaccine would be ready soon."We have tremendous, tremendous talent, some tremendous scientists, and they're right there, and I think you're going to hear some very good news,” Trump said. 2714

At least 35 people died after a section of a highway bridge in northern Italy partially collapsed Tuesday, the office of the Governor of the northwestern Liguria region said on its official Twitter account, citing unnamed sources from the fire department.A further 13 people were injured, five severely, according to Angelo Borrelli, head of the Italian Civil Protection Agency.Speaking to journalists Tuesday afternoon, Borrelli said that around 30 vehicles and several heavy-duty trucks were on the affected section of the Morandi Bridge, which lies to the west of the port city of Genoa, when it gave way.The number of casualties is expected to grow as the rubble is removed, Borrelli said, but it is unlikely that anyone was underneath the bridge at the time of the collapse, he added.Photos: The Morandi Bridge collapse in Genoa, ItalyAccording to police, violent storms were partly to blame for the disaster. Maintenance works were also underway at the time to consolidate parts of the bridge, according to motorway operator Autostrade. A bridge crane had been installed to allow those works to be carried out, the operator said in a statement."The works and the status of the viaduct were subject to constant observation and supervision," the statement said. "The causes for the collapse will be the object of an in-depth analysis a soon as it will be possible to safely access the site." 1403

At least 100,000 small businesses have had to close permanently in the last nine months, according to data gathered by Yelp. Millions more have dealt with temporary closures and major losses in revenue.Now, many remaining small businesses are reliant on a strong holiday shopping season, and there’s finally some good news for these business owners and their employees.For example, at the Boston area small business called Boing Toy Shop, owner Kim Mitchell has been working overtime for the pasting nine months. She has had drastically change her business model.“In certain ways, I feel like although I am in the same physical footprint, I am almost running a completely different business,” said Mitchell.Since the start of the pandemic, Mitchell has had to shift more than half of her business online and added curbside pickup to keep her toy shop out of the red.“In certain ways, I almost feel like we are part store-front, part warehouse,” she added.However, in many ways, she still feels lucky to have some form of her business when so many other small businesses have had to close.“One of the first ones, unfortunately, was the store right across the street from me,” said Mitchell.The boutique clothing store across the street from Boing is just one of an estimated 27 percent of small businesses that have closed across the country, according to a Harvard University Project. And without a strong holiday season, even more permanent closures are feared.So, how has the holiday shopping season been so far for small businesses?“I had by far my most successful small business Saturday, which I did turn into small business weekend. I sort of stretched it,” said Mitchell. “There definitely is a sense, and I have a sense from my customers, that they are making a conscious decision to support their local businesses.”From Boing to stores around the country, consumers opened their wallets more than ever on Small Business Saturday. According to Adobe Analytics data, they spent a record .7 billion just online.“Smaller retailers have seen a 501 percent increase in revenue through the holiday season so far relative to a typical day in October,” said John Copeland with Adobe Analytics,” “From a percentage increase, small and medium-sized businesses are outperforming in terms of percentage gains.”From Adobe’s holiday shopping data to the Boston toy shops’ experience, it is clear consumers are conscious of how much mom and pop businesses are struggling and how important it is to help them and the workers they employ."It is really nice that, especially in a time like this, where we really need the community’s support in return. They are coming out and realizing that ‘hey, these small businesses have been there for us for a long time; now it is time to get their back,’” added Mitchell. 2811

As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201