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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As states continue to count votes, one thing is clear: the pre-election polls were off again.Pollsters underestimated support for President Donald Trump by a wider margin than they did in 2016, prompting a number of theories about what went wrong and why changes adopted after the 2016 election proved ineffective.Heading into Election Day 2020, candidate Joe Biden led Trump nationally by an average of 8.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. We won’t know the final margin until all the votes are counted, but it looks like Trump’s support was underestimated by about 3.5%.That’s wider than the national popular vote miss in 2016, when the polls underestimated Trump’s support by 1.1%.“Polling emerged from 2016 with a black eye. This is fair to say a second black eye in 2020,” said Jay Leve of polling firm SurveyUSA.Leve said the industry thought it had corrected its 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate.In 2020, pollsters made sure to weigh for education level and include enough non-college-educated white voters to try to capture a representative sample of the electorate.But state polls show it didn’t work. In Ohio, there was a nearly 8-point miss. In Wisconsin, there was a nearly 10-point miss. In Florida, the polls missed by 5 points and incorrectly showed Biden in the lead.“While pollsters attempted to correct for the mistakes that they made in 2016, President Trump was busy hammering home a narrative that, number one, the media is the enemy of the people. And number two, polls are fake polls,” Leve said.Leve thinks that skepticism and distrust caused Trump supporters to ignore pollsters at a higher rate, causing them to be underrepresented in samples.San Diego State political scientist Dr. Stephen Goggin says there are other theories as well.“Between mail-in balloting, the pandemic, between all the early voting and all the confusion it creates, it’s possible some of that played a role in creating the error we saw this time,” he said.Goggin said the pandemic may have made the models used to predict voter turnout less accurate this cycle. Many surveys heading into the election showed an unusual trend: Biden was polling better among so-called “likely voters” than among registered voters overall. Typically Republicans hold an edge among likely voters, Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted.There’s also some early data suggesting once the pandemic hit, Democrats started responding to surveys more frequently, something that could have shifted the poll numbers.There may have also been issues surveying certain demographic groups. Pre-election polls showed Biden chipping away at Trump’s lead with seniors compared to 2016, but Biden actually did worse than Clinton with that demographic in certain key states. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Florida also surprised pollsters. If exit polling data shows that trend continued in other states, it might explain about one-quarter of this year’s polling error, according to the New York Times.“Many of these errors are fixable when they find out what went wrong and you can still get high-quality samples,” Goggin said.Pollsters are planning to do detailed autopsies on the election once they have final turnout data and results by precinct. Polling firms will eventually post detailed data from their results to the Roper Center for more finely tuned analysis.ABC 10News used SurveyUSA this election cycle to poll 11 state and local races. The final polls accurately predicted the winner in all 11 races, although the margins weren’t perfect.The ABC 10News/Union-Tribune scientific polls actually overestimated Trump’s support in California by about 4 points, relative to vote totals as of November 12. 3757

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Cruise ship cancellations amid the Coronavirus pandemic have cost the region more than 0 million in lost economic activity, according to the Port of San Diego.The Port says since March, 75 cruises have canceled, meaning a 6 million loss in retail, restaurant, lodging and related transportation and shipping services. The 2020-2021 season, which was supposed to start Sept. 13, has already seen 49 cancellations. "When it’s safe for sailings to resume, we will do what we can to work with and support our cruise and public health partners to ensure the safety of cruise passengers, terminal staff, and the public," the Port said in a statement. The loss is hitting tourism-related businesses, already suffering from a loss of conventions, and social distancing restrictions. Chuck Abbott, general manager of the Intercontinental Hotel San Diego, just steps from the terminal, said cruisers usually stay a night pre or post cruise."It's still an amount of business that comes, which is beneficial," he said. "They're on leisure, and those people usually like to dine out and enjoy things."The CDC has halted cruising through at least Sept. 30. If that expires, San Diego's next arrival would be Nov. 5 through the Carnival Miracle. Some European cruise lines have once again started sailing, with capacity limits and social distancing restrictions. Doug Shupe, of the Auto Club of Southern California, said there is pent up demand for cruising, so once people feel safe, he expects bookings to be robust. 1538

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Busy families can get help from the United States Department of Agriculture, which has tips for stretching your food budget and eating well when money is limited.Buy in season: Sticking to fruits and vegetables that are in season can lower the cost and add to the freshness.Go back to basics: Convenience foods like pre-cut fruits and vegetables and take-out meals often cost more.Meal prep: Make a large batch of favorite recipes and freeze in individual containers. If you use them throughout the week, you can avoid spending on take-out meals.Find deals right under your nose: That may include peel-off coupons on items, signs on aisle shelves, or coupons with your receipt.Search for coupons: Don’t overlook your junk mail! Many stores still mail coupons and ads, or you can find them online.Look for savings in the newspaper: Brand-name coupons are found in paper inserts every Sunday. Some stores offer double value on coupons on some days of the week.Join your store’s loyalty program: You can receive savings and electronic coupons when you provide an email addressFind out if your store will match a competitor’s coupon: Many stores will accept coupons for the same item.Get a coupon buddy: Swap coupons you won’t use with a friend.Stay organized: Sort your coupons so they’re easy to find.The USDA has sample two-week menus, recipes and a shopping list that can be used by anyone wanting a healthy diet at a modest price. The USDA created recipes using basic kitchen equipment and made lunches designed to be packable so they can be taken to work or school. 1619

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Border Patrol is gearing up for what they anticipate to be a busy summer of illegal border crossings. The agency showcased its tools and tactics Tuesday at a site near the former border wall prototypes. Five migrants suspected of crossing illegally were rescued by Border Patrol several miles east of where the demonstration was occurring in the Otay mountains. Border Patrol says a member of the group called 911 early Tuesday morning after they ran out of food and water. One of the people from the group had to be airlifted because of a leg injury. Customs and Border Protection says they detain 170 people a day trying to illegal cross the border in San Diego sector. CBP adds with more the secondary wall project being completed, people are crossing in more remote areas and putting themselves in more dangerous situations. “A lot of the people we’re encountering are surrendering themselves agents,” said Justin Castrejon with Border Patrol. Agents are certified through the state of California to respond in medical capacity similar to EMT’s. 1076

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Children in San Diego could soon go without food if the federal government doesn't extend waivers put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic. The San Diego Unified School District is warning about that possibility after the U.S. Department of Agriculture ended supplemental food support for local families. The changes are expected at the end of September. The USDA decided they would end the supplemental support during the pandemic. After Sept. 30, families will be required to verify identification, proof of school attendance and eligibility to quality for the free family meals. These things were waived in March because of the pandemic. SD Unified officials say the USDA hasn't responded to their request to extend the waivers. District officials are taking steps to try and fill in the gaps by working with partners like the San Diego Food Bank and Feeding San Diego. The district also announced triple the distribution sites, up from 28 to 82. Students or their parents/guardians who qualify for subsidized meals can drive through or walk up to receive breakfast and lunch, Monday through Friday, from noon to 2 p.m. during the 2020-21 school year, which begins on Aug. 31.The district is also offering assistance to any family that needs help completing the required forms. The district says they have distributed more than 4 million meals to students since March. They say these meals are often the only quality meal they receive. ABC 10News reached out to the USDA for comment but so far have not heard back. 1547