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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The effort to establish a new independent police commission in the City of San Diego appears to be heading to victory.As of Wednesday afternoon, Measure B was leading with roughly 75% voting yes.There is currently a Community Review Board on Police Practices, but supporters of Measure B said that body is far from independent.“Their legal council is the city attorney, who represents both the Police Officers Association and the CRB so it represents a true conflict of interest,” Maresa Talbert with San Diegans for Justice told ABC 10News back in June.Proponents of the new Commission on Police Practices said they have been waiting for years for this to be a reality.“A lot of people will look at this and think, oh look, it happened overnight. Well, no,” said Martha Sullivan, one of the early members of Women Occupy San Diego. “It took nine years of very persistent [and] consistent, research, education, [and] lobbying.”One of the goals of Women Occupy San Diego ended up being police reform after the Occupy San Diego protests in 2011 and 2012. Sullivan said they submitted complaints to the review board at that time, but many of those complaints were lost.Since then, the push for an independent police commission grew. “This measure is the epitome of strength in numbers. It is the epitome of community support,” said Andrea St. Julian with San Diegans for Justice. She helped write the charter amendment that ultimately became Measure B.The Community Review Board will be dissolved and the new commission will be formed, once election results are certified. The commission will have independent counsel, subpoena power, and the ability to review officer misconduct and make recommendations.“They'll have greatly expanded powers, a lot more responsibility, and a lot more freedom to do the right thing,” St. Julian said.Jack Schaeffer, President of the San Diego Police Officers Association, said the POA took a neutral stance on Measure B.“We trusted the voters to decide on the type of oversight that they believe is necessary. We believe this election provided them an opportunity to do just that,” Schaeffer said in a statement to ABC 10News. “SDPOA will continue to support oversight in whatever form the community as a whole demands.” 2279

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The invisible wounds of war are a heavy burden to carry, long after deployment. Tom Voss, an Army veteran who served in a scout-sniper platoon, knows this feeling well. "I took shrapnel to the head from a rocket-propelled grenade. And then I also had a lot of survivors guilt around the death of my platoon sergeant because that day I was given the day off," said Voss.He says while deployed, there's no time to process these war injuries. "You have a lot of these questions come up, years and years later. A lot of veterans struggle with, could I have done more, can I be forgiven? A lot of these moral questions," said Voss.After serving, he wanted to bury the traumas of war; in the beginning, he was incapable of dealing with the stresses caused by combat experience. "I was using alcohol and then on top of it abusing the medications that were given to me to kind of numb myself to the experiences, because I didn't know how to process them or move through them or move on from them on my own," said Voss. "I had a lot of suicidal ideations, so that's getting to the point of like, how am I going to take my own life?"Voss decided he needed to make a drastic change. He and a fellow veteran walked 2,700 miles across the country, from Wisconsin to California. It was on that trek where he began to heal and learned about holistic approaches to deal with trauma, like meditation and yoga. Voss now travels the world, teaching veterans and their families these techniques. "It's really up to us as veterans to educate the community about the experiences of what it's really like in combat and how it impacts veterans coming home, how it impacts communities, coming home. And most importantly, how it impacts families," said Voss. Voss chronicled his trek across the country in a memoir Where War Ends.It's available through Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and most places where books are sold. 1917

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The California Department of Motor Vehicles is delaying some driver license and vehicle registration services for 60 days due to the coronavirus pandemic.The DMV said the action will protect customers from coming to offices and employees who are working in office during the outbreak."The DMV is taking this action so that at-risk populations, including seniors and those with underlying health conditions, can avoid required visits to DMV field offices for driver license or vehicle registration renewals," the DMV said in a release.RELATED COVERAGE:California COVID-19 Tracker: San Diego coronavirus updatesSan Diego County leaders set up community response fund amid coronavirusList: School districts providing free meals amid closuresThe 60-day reprieve begins March 16 and covers some services that require an office visit for new driver licenses, duplicate driver licenses, some driver license renewals, new license plates, complex vehicle registrations or title transfers, and off-highway permits.Transactions that fall within this period include driver license renewals for those:70 years of age and older, who are required to take a knowledge testIndividuals who are required to renew in the office (last DMV visit was 15 years prior)Individuals subject to vision testingIndividuals with complex driving historyThe 60-day period also applies to vehicle registration renewals for customers who are not eligible to use an alternative service channel because of:Outdated insurance informationRegistration expired for 90 days or moreSmog issuesA recent transferSeveral DMV tasks can still be completed online through the department's website or at its kiosks around the state. The DMV is also recommending that state law enforcement be flexible when reviewing driver license or identification and vehicle registration. The DMV said it may choose to waive registration penalties, as well.California's DMV offices are open amid several closures around the state due to the coronavirus, but are working to increase access to services outside the office. 2082

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Summer of '85, the community of Normal Heights was devastated by a fire that claimed 69 homes but no lives. October, 2003, the Cedar Fire broke out in the Cleveland National Forest and exploded across San Diego County. The largest wildfire in California history to that point, it killed 15 people and destroyed thousands of homes. Hardest hit were Scripps Ranch and Tierrasanta.Four years later, another firestorm raced through the north county, killing two and featuring wind gusts of over 100 miles per hour. The Witch Fire forced the evacuations of half a million people in San Diego County.Our sister TV station in Denver asked for help in covering a wildfire that burned for almost a month in Colorado. I provided live reports for KMGH, there, and KGTV, here in San Diego. Much more rugged terrain and restricted access than here in California.December of last year, the Lilac Fire ignited near Bonsall and strong winds pushed it toward the coast, wiping out 72 residences in Rancho Monserate Mobile Home Park.. An enormous earthquake shook Mexico City in September, 1985. Tremors measured 8.0 and aftershocks almost as strong. 10News hopped onto a flight the next morning and we covered the destruction and rescue efforts. We had just paused after a full day of shooting; our batteries depleted and being re-charged when another aftershock rumbled through. Everyone in the hotel where we had set up base, emptied into the street at a dead run. A many as 10,000 people were believed to have died in those quakes. A year later we returned to report on recovery efforts.We drove to the Northridge quake, which hit in January, 1994; magnitude of 6.7, killing 57 and injuring 8700. In the midst of driving snow in Julian. Battered by a winter storm on the Oceanside Pier.A giant boulder crashed onto a house in Rancho San Diego in 2000. Fortunately, no one was home when the 140-ton house guest dropped in.Rainbow Creek was the site of a desperate search for a 5 year old boy who'd been swept away in flood waters early last year.We just observed the 10 year anniversary of an FA-18 jet crash into two homes in University City. Four were killed in that tragedy.PSA Flight 182 will never be forgotten. A Cessna collided in mid-air with the jetliner over North Park, claiming 144 lives and and 22 homes. It was in 1978. There've been many tributes. 2375

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