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A key forecasting model that’s been cited by the White House and state officials now predicts the COVID-19 death toll in the United States will surpass 410,000 by January 1.The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington released its latest forecast Friday, saying the U.S. and other countries in the Northern Hemisphere should prepare for a seasonal rise in COVID-19 cases.COVID-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to an ongoing tally from Johns Hopkins University.“I would call the surge in the winter that we’re forecasting a second wave,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray in a call with reporters Friday.The IHME says COVID-19 has followed seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia and if that correlation continues to hold, northern countries can anticipate more cases in the late fall and winter months.“The worst is yet to come,” warned Murray. “I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern Hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away.”The IHME’s prediction of 410,000 U.S. deaths by Jan. 1 is its most likely scenario, but it also provided a worst-case scenario. If mask usage stays the same and states continue to relax social distancing requirements, the IHME model predicts over 620,000 Americans could die from the virus by the new year.The IHME’s best-case scenario, where mask usage is universal and governments impose social distancing requirements, shows more than 286,000 people dying across the nation by the end of the year.“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” said Murray in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”Globally, the IHME predicts that nearly 770,000 lives could be saved between now and Jan. 1 through proven measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing.Across the world, deaths expected by Jan. 1 total 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more from now until the end of the year, the IHME says. Daily deaths in December could reach as high as 30,000.Under the most likely of IHME’s scenarios, the nations with the highest per capita total deaths would be the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Netherlands, and Spain.The IHME says these five countries will most likely have the highest cumulative death tolls by Jan. 1:India: 659,537U.S.: 410,451Brazil: 174,297Mexico: 138,828Japan: 120,514IHME says its projections are based on an epidemiological model that includes data on cases, deaths, and antibody prevalence, as well as location-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, population density and age structure, and pneumonia seasonality, which shows a strong correlation with the trajectory of COVID-19. 2977

A historically active Atlantic Hurricane season is nearing a close, but there appears to be at least one more threat looming in the Caribbean Sea.Hurricane Zeta is currently churning just south of the Yucatan Peninsula with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph — and is currently projected to make landfall on the Louisiana coast later this week.The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch for portions of the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts on Monday. The hurricane watch runs from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Mississippi border. The hurricane gained hurricane status Monday afternoon after Hurricane Hunters flew through the storm. In addition to gustier winds, the Hurricane Hunters found Zeta's pressure has dropped. According to the National Hurricane Center's latest update, Zeta is projected to make landfall on the eastern part of the Louisiana coastline on Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning. At that point, officials believe the system will be "at or near hurricane strength."Zeta is the 28th named storm of 2020 — the second-most all-time in a single year. And no region has been targeted more by tropical storms this year than the Louisiana coast.The Louisiana coastline has already been targeted by four major storms this year — Cristobal, Laura, Marco and Delta. The strongest of those storms, Laura, reached category 4 status and caused extensive damage to the Lake Charles area, contributing to 17 deaths in the U.S.According to one NOAA researcher, the Louisiana coast has spent more than three whole weeks in NHC forecast cones this year, by far the most of any region. 1624

A growing group of Republicans want Attorney General Jeff Sessions to be the party's choice in the Alabama Senate race, but ethics experts say Sessions either would have to have to leave the Department of Justice or continually disavow campaigns to put him in the seat if he wants to run for the office and avoid legal trouble.This week Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn of Texas both said they would support Sessions as a write-in candidate over Republican candidate Roy Moore, who has been accused of pursuing sexual relationships with teenagers when he was in his 30s.Moore denies the allegations, and says he has no plans leave the race. And Sessions has not indicated that he's planning to run for his old seat.But ethics experts say that even if Sessions does not himself campaign to be a write-in candidate in the race, he could have an "affirmative duty" to disavow campaigns to put him in the Senate while he's still the attorney general. If he remains silent, he could be in violation of the Hatch Act, a 1939 law restricting the ability of most federal employees to engage in political campaign activities.Walter Shaub, a former director of the US Office of Government Ethics who's now at the nonprofit Campaign Legal Center, told CNN that the federal Office of Special Counsel has issued an advisory opinion on write-in candidates, which specifies:"(S)uch a candidacy is permissible only if spontaneous and accomplished without an employee's knowledge. You acknowledge that you have heard rumors of a write-in effort to elect you to the school board. It would be a violation of the Act if you encouraged this effort or remained silent. The Act imposes on you an affirmative duty to disavow this effort through public announcements and other appropriate means." It remains to be seen whether the OSC considers the comments by McConnell and Cornyn as imposing an "affirmative duty.""There's a question as to whether it's a write-in campaign or a stray comment from one guy," Shaub said following McConnell's comments. "If McConnell keeps talking about it, he's going to create an affirmative duty."Larry Noble, a senior director at the Campaign Legal Center who's a CNN contributor, said Republicans such as McConnell are "putting (Sessions) in a very difficult position" by even suggesting he be a write-in candidate."We are close to the line of his having to disavow," Noble added.For Sessions to be eligible as a write-in candidate, Noble said, he would have to "affirmatively disavow" any campaign or resign from office to avoid violating the Hatch Act.Sessions would likely be asked about his support for the write-in candidacy frequently until the December 12 election. Questions could also be raised about whether he was having private conversations about the effort with the state party and the Republican National Committee, which also would violate the Hatch Act.In response to a request for comment, Sarah Isgur Flores, director of public affairs for the Department of Justice, said, "Our ethics officials will need to evaluate precisely what has been said by others and then review what, if any, affirmative obligations we may have."Samuel Bagenstos, a University of Michigan Law School professor who specializes in constitutional litigation, noted that a few previous attorneys general -- including Dick Thornburgh and Robert Kennedy -- have campaigned for Senate seats, but neither were floated as write-in candidates."It's extremely suboptimal for an attorney general, who is supposed to have some insulation from electoral politics, to be actively running for a political office," Bagenstos said, adding, "And of course there would be lots of possible recusal questions."Aside from ethical considerations, running as a write-in candidate would be a long shot even if Sessions resigned.Few candidates have won Senate seats via write-in campaigns. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, won her seat that way in 2010, but prior to her election the last person to do it was Strom Thurmond in 1954.However unlikely, a Sessions victory would serve two purposes for the GOP: The party would retain the seat, and Sessions would leave the DOJ after months of public criticism by President Donald Trump over his decision to recuse himself from the Russia investigation and not to prosecute Trump's political enemies. 4412

A judge entered a plea of not guilty on Nikolas Cruz's behalf as the teen was arraigned Wednesday in last month's massacre at a South Florida high school -- on the same day students across the country walked out of class to demand stricter gun laws because of the killings.A Broward County grand jury last week?indicted?the 19-year-old gunman on 17 counts of premeditated murder in the first degree and 17 counts of attempted murder in the first degree. 476

A doctor is opening up about working at one of the first hospitals in the country dedicated solely to treating people with severe cases of COVID-19.“Hope gave way to frustration as heartwarming images of mutual sacrifice were replaced by images of protest about the sanctity of dining out and getting haircuts,” said Dr. Ben Trappey at Bethesda Hospital in St. Paul, Minnesota. “Now, even frustration has given way to bone deep sense of weariness and resignation. I’m running on fumes.”Trappey spent nearly three months away from his wife, quarantining at a hotel while caring for patients at Bethesda Hospital near Minneapolis.He destresses through reflective writing and teaches it to other residents and physicians.His essay “Running on Fumes” was recently published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). It reflects how he feels still being on the front lines of COVID-19, but not feeling like the rest of the world is behind him.“The thing that made me feel most supported early on was just that everybody was making these sacrifices together and now when there are so many people who refuse to acknowledge that a sacrifice even needs to be made is really frustrating,” said Trappey.He says one of his challenges is not knowing which COVID-19 patients will get better.Many hospitals have provided support like counseling and buddy systems.Trappey is now on parental leave at home with his wife and newborn son.“It’s hard to think about what things will be like as we get further into the fall and we have other respiratory viruses in place as well. It’s pretty worrisome, so I’m just trying not to let myself think too much about that,” said Trappey.The doctor says he hopes people realize they're not alone in the pandemic. 1758