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On a night when Arizona's Republican US Senate primary was expected to command most of the attention, a stunning upset victory in Florida's Democratic governor's race stole the show.Democrats chose the most progressive candidate -- and the only one who wasn't wealthy -- in Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum. Florida's first African-American major-party nominee for governor, Gillum will face Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis, who has the backing of President Donald Trump.Their race will pit a Republican who is known for praising Trump on Fox News against a Democrat who says he wants single-payer health care and Trump impeached just as the 2020 presidential race gets underway. Florida is a major presidential battleground state.Arizona and Oklahoma also held primaries Tuesday. Here are five takeaways from the contests. 827

Omarosa Manigault Newman has released a new audio recording in which she and Lara Trump, the wife of President Donald Trump's son Eric, are discussing a job offer with Trump's re-election campaign that the former White House aide alleged was a hush agreement.Manigault Newman writes in her book, "Unhinged: An Insider's Account of the Trump White House," that she turned down an offer from President Trump's daughter-in-law to sign a nondisclosure agreement in exchange for a job on the President's re-election campaign paying ,000 per month. Manigault Newman said she was offered the deal after she was ousted from the White House last December. 662

On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

OCEANSIDE (CNS) - Two vehicles crashed Saturday on College Boulevard underneath state Route 78 in Oceanside, killing at least one person.The California Highway Patrol reported a blue Tesla and red sedan collided at 3:04 p.m., causing one of them to overturn and land on its roof on College.Medics and officers from the Oceanside Police Department were on scene trying to extract the two occupants of the overturned vehicle, the CHP said. Officers were shutting down traffic in the area.A San Diego County coroner was at the scene of the crash to investigate, the CHP said.No further information was immediately available. 629

On what was a normal day for us a day of fun and playing, a day meant for good, you chose to commit a horrific violent act, an act intended for harm and act intended to kill and destroy. Thankfully our family serves a mighty God who is faithful to his people, a God who intends to protect and save. A God who’s will is perfect and makes all things work for the good of those that love him. You intended evil that day but God works all for good. Landen, who was a nameless child to you, is not a name forgotten or unknown to God. Landen is a witness to God’s divine interaction in our lives for all the world to see. Our boy was saved that day in a miraculous way as testimony to the goodness and greatness of God, and because of that miracle God is being glorified and His name is being magnified through out the earth. Your act was evil and selfish, you chose to listen to the worst parts of yourself that day. You chose evil over good and chose to take your hate and hurt out on my precious boy. That is where your impact on us stops, you will take nothing more from us. We will continue to Love and serve our God, we will continue to love people and have joy and peace in our lives, you will not define our lives or our hearts. We will live our lives to the fullest filled with fun and joy. You chose to waste your life and I wish you could experience the pain and suffering you inflicted on my boy, you should have the maximum punishment that this life has for you so you understand the impact of your actions. I do want you to know that I forgive you, because it is what God calls me to do, and holding hate only harms me and I will not allow that, and while I want the maximum punishment for you in this life I do want you to know that there is a God who does love you and seeks to save you. John 3:16 'For God so loved the world that he gave his only begotten Son that who ever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life.' This is the grace that our merciful, loving, and forgiving God offers you. This is the path to eternal redemption for you bought and paid for by the blood of Jesus, and he is greater than any evil you have committed I pray you call on his name so that you will be saved. The boy's mother also had a statement. Read it below: 2274