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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — There could be as many as 78 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines available by the end of 2020, according to the most optimistic timeline in leaked documents from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.But assuming that the vaccine will require two doses per individual, that figure would only be enough to inoculate the highest priority individuals, based on draft guidelines released this week from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.“We’re not even going to get through Phase 1 people” in 2020, said Dr. Mary Barger, an epidemiologist at the University of San Diego.There are an estimated 44 million people in NASEM’S Phase 1 group: frontline healthcare workers, first responders, people with multiple high-risk factors, and adults living in nursing homes and other group settings.Based on leaked CDC guidance to states published by the New York Times, if two vaccine candidates become available in October, there would be enough doses for 39 million people by the end of 2020 -- not quite enough to cover the entire Phase 1 group.If only one vaccine is available by October, the projections suggest there could be enough doses to cover 13 to 26 million people.That might only be enough for frontline healthcare workers and first responders, of which there are an estimated 17 million.Healthcare workers and first responders get the highest priority, which NASEM calls Phase 1a, so they can maintain the integrity of the healthcare system.“When there’s a pandemic, you want to make sure you have enough people to take care of those that are sick,” said Dr. Abisola Olulade of Sharp Rees-Stealy Medical Group.Phase 1b includes individuals with multiple underlying conditions, like cancer, chronic kidney disease, and serious heart conditions.Approximately 75% of adults hospitalized for COVID-19 in the U.S. between March 1 and August 15 had at least two underlying conditions, according to data from the COVID-19 Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network cited in the NASEM guidelines. More than 60% of hospitalized adults had three or more underlying conditions.“It would make sense that you would include a segment of the population that’s at risk of doing the worst,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at UC San Francisco.There are an estimated 27 million people in the Phase 1b category.Critical workers in high-risk industries like grocery store clerks, mail carriers, and bus drivers would be in Phase 2, along with teachers, homeless people, prisoners, people with moderately risky underlying conditions, and anyone over the age of 65.“Even though people 65 and older make up less than 20% of the population, there have been 80% of COVID-19 deaths in this age,” Dr. Olulade said.Risk factors including high blood pressure, liver disease, or moderate-to-severe asthma would qualify an individual for Phase 2.There are an estimated 27 million people in this phase.In Phase 3, NASEM recommends inoculating people who are at lower risk of a bad infection but may be vectors for the spread of disease, including young people and children.NASEM noted that it will be “critical to conduct additional trials to gain better understanding of safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccine among children before they receive the vaccine.” Currently, there are no COVID vaccine trials that include children.Other essential workers at moderate risk of exposure would also be included in Phase 3, including employees in restaurants, hotels, hair salons, and exercise facilities.Phase 4 includes everyone else. 3589

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The South Bay continues to be devastated by the coronavirus, with several of the hardest hit ZIP codes in the region.According to San Diego County data, the hardest hit ZIP code is 92154. The area, which includes Otay Mesa and parts of Imperial Beach, has the most cases in all of the county. In the last 30 days, cases have jumped from 3,290 to 4,528. Over 1,200 of the cases in this ZIP code happened in the last month.Other ZIP codes in the region have more than doubled their case rate in recent weeks. These ZIP codes have a large Latino population; Latinos have been disproportionately impacted by the pandemic, making up a majority of the county's positive cases while only making up roughly 34% of the population.INTERACTIVE MAP: CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES IN SD COUNTYNancy Maldonado from the Chicano Federation said it's no surprise the region continues to see the high number in cases. Maldonado explained that many of those who live in the region are essential, frontline workers and often times live in multi-generational households.The Chicano Federation has distributed over 7,000 COVID-19 safety kits to the community, including things like masks, hand sanitizer and thermometers.Maldonado said the focus of the federation has been to continue raising awareness about this virus, encouraging testing, and encouraging the community to stay home during the upcoming holidays. 1415

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The San Diego Zoo welcomed a rare bear cub to the mix last week.Zoo officials say an Andean bear cub was born to mom Alba and dad (or, sire) Turbo on Jan. 8 in the early morning hours. “We are overjoyed about the birth of Alba’s first cub,” said Chris Hamlin, animal care manager at San Diego Zoo. “Alba is showing all the appropriate behaviors of a good mother, being very attentive to her newborn. We are so impressed with how well she is handling motherhood.”RELATED: San Diego Zoo Global raises 0K for Australia wildlife reliefZoo caretakers are observing the cub and its mother via closed-circuit video to allow Alba to care for the cub without interruption. Giving the bears their space is critically important, as Andean bear cubs have an extremely high mortality rate in their first month, so care takers are being watchful but cautiously optimistic. The bear's sex is yet to be determined.But the interactions and long-term survival of the cub could led to a bounty of information for researchers.RELATED: San Diego Zoo Safari Park rhino's broken toe on the mend with new cast“The Andean forests where we work are so rugged and dense that it will be a long time before we can study the maternal behavior of wild bears there,” said Russ Van Horn, population sustainability scientist at San Diego Zoo Global. “Alba's behavior and her cub's development will suggest how closely, and for how long, wild mothers and cubs may be linked to birth dens, where we think they’re sensitive to disturbance by humans.”Andean bears are only found at a few zoos in the U.S. Also called "spectacled bears," the bears are marked with unique rings and fur around their eyes. Andean bears are listed as vulnerable on the Red List of Threatened Species, primarily due to habitat loss, according to the zoo.RELATED: Bonsall animal center critters help give 'Baby Yoda' a voiceSan Diego Zoo's newest member is the first Andean bear cub born at the zoo since 1993 and ninth cub born at the park overall. Andean bears have been cared for at the zoo since 1938.It will be at least a couple of month before visitors are able to see the new bear cub active in its habitat, the zoo says. 2197

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The San Diego County Fair won't be held in the traditional fashion amid the coronavirus pandemic, but there will still be a way for fans to get their fair fun.The Del Mar Fairgrounds has already started to host food vendors on Fridays and Saturdays in June from 12 p.m. to 6 p.m. Visitors can grab corn dogs, kettle corn, and more from Roxy's, Copper Kettle, California Corn Dog Company, or Snax Shack Funnel Cake.A full menu of fair foods can be found online here.RELATED:Vendors offer drive-thru orders at Del Mar Fairgrounds to stay afloat amid pandemicWithout big events, Del Mar Fairgrounds says it needs M to surviveA big part of the summer fair is also the exhibits featuring works by local students, artists, and others. That's all going digital this year. Fair organizers say online offerings will include a slideshow celebrating a variety of student works, a photography portfolio, an online "Out at the Fair" celebration, and even a virtual Jr. Livestock show and auction. Fair merchandise is also available online.The Del Mar Fairgrounds recently launched an effort to save the venue from being closed as it faces a million shortfall. A website called Save the Fairgrounds has been started to raise money. 1251

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- There were about 20,600 students considered homeless in schools throughout San Diego in the 2017-18 school year, but the actual number is likely higher, according to the findings of a new state audit.The report by California State Auditor Elaine Howle concluded districts across the state are not doing enough to identify homeless students and connect them with the services they need for tutoring, transportation, and school supplies. The report also faulted the state Department of Education for "inadequate oversight."The audit was requested after Department of Education data showed more than 25 percent of California districts reported having no students experiencing homelessness despite the state’s ongoing homelessness crisis.RELATED: San Diego homeless count 2019: Data shows over 8,000 living on county streets or in shelters“We cannot serve them and work to improve their educational outcomes if we don’t know who they are,” said San Diego County Office of Education Homeless Coordinator Susie Terry.California uses a broad definition of homelessness under the McKinney-Veto Homeless Assistance Act. About 75 percent of students considered homeless are living in a household with two or more family units for economic reasons, a scenario known as “doubling up,” Terry said."Doubling up" is often a last ditch-effort to avoid life in a shelter or a vehicle, and a time when services are critically needed, she said.RELATED: San Diego County ranks fourth for number of homeless in the United StatesAuditors looked at the number of students receiving free and reduced-price lunches and compared that to research showing 5 to 10 percent of those students typically experience homelessness.Using that benchmark, the San Diego Unified School District scored well, with 8,129 homeless students and an identification rate of 11 percent.Districts with less than a 5 percent identification warrant further scrutiny and state oversight, the audit said. San Marcos Unified, Oceanside Unified, and Chula Vista Elementary District all had homelessness identification rates of 2 percent or less.RELATED: San Diego city council approves .9 billion homelessness planTerry said identifying homeless students can be a challenge because districts use different approaches, and families often don’t want to be identified. “There’s a lot of fear around what’s going to happen if the school knows we’re homeless,” she said. “There are fears around if child welfare will be called, if immigration will be called, if they’re going to be allowed to continue going to school.”Each school district is required to have a homeless coordinator, but the duties are often tacked on to another position, she said.“There isn’t always time and resources available for district liaisons to do the job they need to do around identification,” said Terry. 2856