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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) - A man was hit by a train and killed Tuesday night near Surfrider Way and North Cleveland Street in Oceanside just before 8 p.m. The San Diego County Sheriff's Department told 10News the pedestrian was declared dead at the scene.At 8 p.m., Metrolink Orange County tweeted that the Amtrak 591 train hit a person on the tracks. They then tweeted that the tracks were closed and they were working on alternate transportation for passengers.  497

OCEANSIDE (KGTV): A program that offers daily, hot meals to seniors in Oceanside is running out of money and could be forced to close."It’s stressful, it’s super stressful," says Sylvia Spears, the Executive Director of the Oceanside Senior Citizens Association. "I've had sleepless nights, and I’m trying to figure out who do we pay, who do we not pay?"The program gives seniors a hot lunch every day at the Oceanside Senior Citizens Center. For people who can't make it, they also offer home delivery. For a lot of the seniors, it's the only hot meal and the only personal interaction they get all day."We become friends," says Patricia Bonynge, who's been coming to the meals for almost ten years. "Even though we don’t go to each other’s homes or talk on the phone, we come here, and we converse."Bonynge also used the home delivery service for a few months after she had foot surgery and couldn't drive or walk. She says it was a lifeline while she recovered.Spears says the program serves around 50,000 meals every year. That number continues to grow as Americans live longer."Clients are up; donations are down," she says.Right now, the meals are partially funded through a grant from the County. It's part of the Federal "Older Americans Act." The grant is a three-year contract, which expires on December 31st, 2018.But this year, Spears says she decided not to reapply because he hasn't been able to come up with enough money to cover the rest of the budget."Right now we need about 15,000 dollars extra per month to keep going," she says. "That includes our food, kitchen supplies and our trucks."Other organizations, like Meals on Wheels, could step in to fill the gap. Spears is also talking to the City of Oceanside for funding. There's a closed-session City Council meeting Wednesday night to address the issue.The city already lets the Association rent the Senior Center facilities and kitchen for per year. They also work with the San Diego Food Bank to do a monthly food box distribution for seniors who qualify.Despite that, city officials say they realize how important the hot meal program is to older residents."It gives them hope," says City Recreation Supervisor Homer Post. "That hope is what allows them to live until the next day. If you don’t take care of your elderly, you can’t take care of anything that you got going on."Spears is hopeful that someone will come through with a donation to keep the meals going. She says cash or check donations can be made in person at the Senior Citizens Center, or sent by mail (with "Nutrition Program" noted) to 455 Country Club Lane, Oceanside, CA 92054. 2650

On November 19, 2020 the EastLake Educational Foundation (EEF) will launch the COME TOGETHER COMMUNITY CAMPAIGN & KICKOFF RALLY to help fund technology and innovation in neighborhood schools. The Campaign will run from November 19, 2020 to December 31, 2020.WATCH DAY TWO LIVE OR THE REPLAY AT https://www.facebook.com/EEFKids/posts/10159767804714368WATCH DAY ONE BELOW 381

One winter afternoon last year, Duane Engebretson sat in his stepdaughter's hospital room at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, trying to figure out how she could escape.Alyssa Gilderhus, 18 and a senior in high school, had been a patient at Mayo for about two months, ever since having a ruptured brain aneurysm on Christmas Day.Mayo neurosurgeons saved her life, but she and her parents were unhappy with the care she was receiving in the rehabilitation unit, and they say they repeatedly asked for her to be transferred.But they say Mayo refused to let her transfer to another hospital, even after a lawyer wrote a letter asking Mayo to make the arrangements.Alyssa and her family began to suspect that Mayo was trying to get a guardian appointed to make medical decisions for her. They were right: Hospital staffers would later tell police that they had gone to two county adult protection agencies to make guardianship arrangements.Duane and his wife, Amber Engebretson, weren't sure how to get their daughter out of Mayo. Two nurses had been assigned to watch over her at all times. 1102