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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

AVILA BEACH, Calif. — Officials say two women are lucky to be alive after a humpback whale capsized their kayak as they paddled in the ocean on Monday.The incident, which occurred near the Cal Poly Pier, was caught on video by multiple people in the area.Julie McSorley says she went out Sunday and took pictures of the whales and convinced her friend to go kayaking with her on Monday.McSorley says there were a lot of birds and fish in the area, so people had their phones at the ready. She said she and her friend could see whales off in the distance.Seconds later, one of the whales was right underneath them.While some video footage makes it appear as the women went inside the whale's mouth, McSorley says their kayak just overturned, and they were thrown underwater.Video shows McSorley screamed before going underwater for about five or six seconds.Humpback whales are considered an endangered species, and marine mammal experts say they can be unpredictable and dangerous. Experts say people should keep about a football field's worth of space between themselves and the large mammals, when possible.The Port San Luis Harbor Patrol says enforcement can be difficult. Boaters can think they've left a whale plenty of space, but the mammals move quickly.The whales have been making appearances close to shore between Morro Bay and Avila Beach in recent days. Marine mammal experts say they are looking for food that is currently easy to find near the shore.This story was originally published by KSBY in San Luis Obispo, California. 1548

AUSTIN, Texas – More people have now voted early in Texas for Tuesday’s general election than voted in total in the state during the 2016 election.As of Thursday, data on the secretary of state’s website shows a total of 9,009,850 Texans had voted either by mail or in person, and there’s still one more day of early voting in the state.That number surpasses the record-breaking 8,969,226 votes that were cast in the state during the 2016 election.The high voting turnout signals that Texas may be a true battleground state in the 2020 election.Democrats are trying to take advantage of the enthusiasm to flip the traditionally Republican state and collect its 38 electoral votes. Though, pollsters at FiveThirtyEight show President Donald Trump is still “slightly” favored to win the state, with a 66% chance. That’s according to the website’s forecast, which is based on polling averages.Still, Joe Biden's campaign appears to see potential in Texas and is even sending running mate Kamala Harris to the state Friday to campaign in the final leg of the presidential race. 1081

ATLANTA (AP) — Investigators in Georgia say Chicago rapper King Von was among three people shot and killed in an early shooting Friday outside a nightclub in Atlanta that also left three people wounded. The Georgia Bureau of Investigation says King Von, whose real name is Dayvon Bennett, was with a group of men at the Monaco Hookah Lounge. When they arrived, two men approached the group in the parking lot and an argument escalated to gunfire. "The preliminary investigation indicates that Dayvon Bennett, aka King Von, and a group of men left the Opium Nightclub and went to the Monaco Hookah Lounge," GBI said in a statement. "Once there, two men approached the group in the parking lot, and the two groups of men started to argue with each other. The argument quickly escalated to gunfire between the two groups.On- and off-duty Atlanta police responded. Six men were ultimately shot. According to the Associated Press, the APD issued a statement saying its officers did not kill the rapper.Three are being treated for their injuries.Empire, Bennett's record label, released a statement via Twitter calling Bennett “a natural storyteller” whose latest album offered “an inside perspective on neighborhood life and trauma wrought by the criminal justice system.” 1275

ATLANTA (AP) — The funeral for the Rev. C.T. Vivian, an early and key adviser to the Rev. Martin Luther King, is to be held Thursday. Because of the coronavirus outbreak, the service will be private and open only to family, according to a news release from the C.T. and Octavia Vivian Museum and Archives. It's scheduled for 11 a.m. Thursday at Providence Missionary Baptist Church in Atlanta, and will be streamed live online and broadcast by WSB-TV. Vivian died at home in Atlanta of natural causes at age 95 on Friday, the same day that fellow civil rights leader U.S. Rep. John Lewis died. 601