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The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has been issuing frequent projections since March in an attempt to model the spread and impact of the coronavirus across the world.The models have been used by the CDC and White House coronavirus task force in an effort to better understand the potential number of deaths the coronavirus could cause.On Friday, the model added a new variable, one that could cause a steep decline of coronavirus deaths throughout the US. The IHME’s newest model, which predicts the number of coronavirus deaths in the US through the end of March, is now weighing the potential impact of vaccines on the virus.For those hoping for an immediate drop in hospitalizations and deaths caused by the coronavirus as soon as vaccinations begin later this month might be disappointed. The IHME's model shows the initial batch of vaccinations will have a relatively muted effect on deaths and hospitalizations initially. While by April 1, much of the general US population will likely not be fully vaccinated, many in the high-risk category should expect to vaccinated by then. How fast they get vaccinated will play a role in determining the number of coronavirus deaths in the US.As of Friday evening, there have been over 278,000 coronavirus-related deaths reported throughout the US, per Johns Hopkins University data. Without any vaccines reaching Americans, the IHME’s model projects a total of 548,000 would die from the coronavirus through April 1, meaning 270,000 deaths between now and then.If COVID-19 vaccines are distributed at expected levels, 9,000 lives would be saved by April 1, reducing the number of deaths between now and then to 261,000. But a rapid vaccine rollout – one that would vaccinate the high-risk population and begin to vaccinate the general population by the spring -- would result in 250,000 deaths between now and April 1.“Mass scale-up of vaccination in 2021 means we have a path back to normal life, but there are still a few rough months ahead,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, IHME director. “We must be vigilant in protecting ourselves at least through April, when, as our projections indicate, vaccines will begin to have an impact.”In the meantime, Murray says universal mask wearing and social distancing will save more lives than a potential vaccine in the next four months.“Especially in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s crucial for governments to impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks. Where the winter surge is driving spikes in infections, there will be many people who can still become infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully rolled out,” said Murray.To see the IHME’s state-by-state projections for deaths, hospitalizations and cases, clickhere. 2790

The vice presidential debate between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris next week will go on as scheduled after President Donald Trump, the First Lady, and others have tested positive for the coronavirus on Friday.An official with the Commission on Presidential Debates confirmed that no changes are anticipated to the Wednesday night debate in Salt Lake City. Both Pence and Harris underwent tests for the coronavirus on Friday and tested negative.Pence’s physician said in a memo that the vice president was not considered a “close contact” of anyone infected with COVID-19 and was not required to quarantine.“Vice President Mike Pence remains in good health and is free to go about his normal activities,” said Navy Lt. Commander Dr. Jesse Schonau in a statement.The one debate between the vice presidential candidates will take place Wednesday in Salt Lake City at the University of Utah. It will be moderated by Susan Page, the Washington Bureau Chief for USA Today. 974

The road to the White House clearly goes through the state of Michigan as both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have been actively campaigning in the state.Michigan has been a state hard-hit economically in recent years as the once thriving auto industry Nationally, the number of auto jobs has declined amid the pandemic. The auto industry has lost nearly 100,000 jobs this year.At the start of the century, there were more than 1.3 million US auto jobs. When Barack Obama took office, that number had dropped by 50%. During his tenure, the auto industry regained a portion of those jobs lost.But any gains from a revamped trade agreement had yet to be realized in the auto industry based on Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. On Thursday, Joe Biden said in an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper the new USMCA agreement that replaced NAFTA is an upgrade, but failed to give President Donald Trump for securing the agreement."But look what the overall trade policy has done even with NAFTA. We now have this gigantic deficit in trade with Mexico. Not because NAFTA wasn't made better, because overall trade policy and how he deals with it made everything worse," Biden said.Biden was asked whether Trump should be given credit for the USMCA. Biden said the Obama White House was unable to renegotiate NAFTA because of Congress. For the first two years of the Obama administration, both the House and Senate were held by Democrats.“Because we had a Republican Congress that wouldn't go along with us renegotiating,” Biden told Tapper.In 2008, both Biden and Obama campaigned on changing the US trade agreement between Mexico and Canada. The USMCA, which became effective this year, was amended by Congress, but ultimately won bipartisan support from leaders of both party.The interview with Tapper was taped in Michigan and aired hours before Trump held a campaign rally in the state.On Monday, Trump said, “Biden supported NAFTA. He supported China’s entry into the World Trade Organization. Two disasters. The most disastrous trade deals in history, both of them. I can’t tell you which was worse; they were both terrible.” 2125

The strain of E. coli causing the current outbreak in romaine lettuce has been found in a reservoir on a farm in Santa Barbara County, California, the US Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Thursday.The agencies are continuing to investigate other possible sources, and the CDC still advises consumers not to eat romaine lettuce grown in California's Monterey, San Benito and Santa Barbara counties until investigations are complete."We cannot say how many cases are linked to this specific farm at this time," Ian Williams, chief of the CDC's outbreak response and prevention branch, said at a press briefing. "We have to do additional work at this farm and other farms that are being identified from our investigation."Properly labeled romaine grown outside those three counties and harvested after November 23, as well as romaine grown in greenhouses or hydroponically, should all be safe from contamination, the CDC said. The earlier warning against eating romaine from California's San Luis Obispo, Santa Cruz and Ventura counties has been lifted.The agency stressed that consumers should continue to avoid any romaine lettuce not labeled with the harvest date and location.The CDC has identified another seven illnesses since its update December 6, bringing the total people infected with E. coli to 59 across 15 states and Washington, D.C. The last reported illness was November 16. There have been 23 hospitalizations and two cases of hemolytic uremic syndrome, a type of kidney failure. No deaths have been reported.While calling it "premature" to call the outbreak over, Williams said it was a good sign that the most recently identified cases were in the same time period as the main outbreak."We're hopeful that it's moving in the right direction," Williams said. "It's still too early to tell."The first cases in this outbreak were identified in October. States with cases include California, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. 2141

The suspect in the Pittsburgh synagogue massacre faces 44 federal charges -- most of them death penalty offenses -- in the slaying of 11 worshippers during last weekend's Shabbat services, according to a grand jury filing released Wednesday.Included are 11 counts each of obstruction of free exercise of religious belief resulting in death and use of a firearm to commit murder during a crime of violence.Thirty-two of the charges are punishable by death, according to the indictment.The suspected gunman, Robert Bowers, is accused of targeting the Saturday morning services at the Tree of Life synagogue after making anti-Semitic posts online. 652