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On Tuesday, the U.S. State Department downgraded its travel warning for Mexico.The current land-border closure agreement between the U.S. and Mexico is due to expire on Sept. 21.The U.S.'s southern neighbor is no longer under a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" warning, the state department said.It's now been downgraded to Level 3 "Reconsider Travel" status.The agency says travelers still cannot go to:- Colima state due to crime - Guerrero state due to crime. - Michoacán state due to crime.- Sinaloa state due to crime.- Tamaulipas state due to crime and kidnapping.According to USA Today, travelers can fly to Cancun, Cozumel, and Cabo San Lucas, even without a negative COVID-19 test or quarantine. 703

On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

One of the men convicted of killing Michael Jordan’s dad, James Jordan, will be paroled in 2023, according to multiple reports.Larry Demery and his friend Daniel Green were arrested and tried for murder in the 1993 shooting death of James Jordan. The elder Jordan had stopped at a rest stop for the night to sleep while on his way home from a funeral. Prosecutors said Demery and Green shot him, stole his car and then got rid of his body.In 1996, Demery and Green were sentenced to life in prison. Demery was spared the death penalty at the time because attorneys claimed he did not pull the trigger and he felt remorse, according to the Raleigh News and Observer. Demery pleaded guilty and testified against Green.North Carolina’s Post-Release Supervision and Parole Commission released a short statement announcing they approved Demery to take part in a vocational and scholastic program as part of parole. His release date is set for August 6, 2023.Demery was sentenced under old guidelines and is eligible for parole. Convicts serving life sentences for murder in North Carolina are no longer eligible for parole.Michael Jordan spoke emotionally about his dad’s death during “The Last Dance”, a docu-series based on Michael’s career, focusing on his last season with the Chicago Bulls.Michael said that his father was "the voice of reason that always drove and challenged me," and his death changed Michael's life forever. 1435

Ontario’s minister of sport said in a speech that the Ontario Hockey League will not have bodychecking this season.Lisa MacLeod told the Empire Club of Canada that removing purposeful physical contact is a necessity for all sports in the province to slow the spread of COVID-19“Not just in the OHL, not just in hockey in general, but in all sports,” MacLeod said. "We’re in a very serious game right now and the reality is we have to take those public health precautions.”The OHL announced Thursday that it plans to start a shortened season on Feb. 4, the last of Canada’s three major junior leagues to release a schedule.“Until such time as we arrive at an agreed upon Return to Play protocol with the Government of Ontario, the League will have no further comment on the matter of body contact,” the OHL said in a statement.The Quebec Major Junior Hockey League season started earlier this month, but the schedule has been affected by several COVID-19 outbreaks as well as provincial government restrictions. After play was restricted to Maritimes Division teams the past two weeks, some Quebec teams are scheduled to resume play this weekend.The Western Hockey League plans to start its season on Jan. 8. 1215

OCEAN BEACH, Calif. (KGTV) — Every summer, a unique, orange ball can be seen bobbing on the ocean's horizon just off the shore of Ocean Beach.The "David Buoy" was placed off Ocean Beach pier last week, heralding in a summer tradition for the beach town.The buoy is one of several deployed by San Diego lifeguards between North Pacific Beach and Ocean Beach every year for lifeguards to utilize as a workout destination. But Obecians have made the lifeguard tool something unique.RELATED: San Diego speakeasy named among Best Tiki Bars in AmericaLifeguard Sgt. Rick Strobel and James Murphy, a junior lifeguard program director, helped to standardize the use of buoys every summer for workout programs. In Ocean Beach, a group of Obecians asked Strobel about the buoy and started to swim out to it themselves, Strobel told 10News."It became a topic of discussion, 'did you swim the buoy today,'" Strobel said. "They were also big David Bowie fans and the named it 'David Buoy.'"Strobel says the following year, the group gave him a David Bowie sticker and asked him to place it on the buoy before it was set. In 2018, lifeguard Dana Vanos took it a step further and painted "OB" in large letters on it.RELATED: La Jolla Playhouse Becomes Broadway Breeding Ground"Then we took the buoy through the community and everyone loved it," Strobel said. "They signed the buoy, put messages of support for the lifeguards and stickers on it. It was great."Last summer, Strobel says the buoy was stolen from storage. But it didn't stop the buoy fans. "We posted this on Facebook and people were outraged," Strobel recalls.So, Murphy purchased another buoy, which was then given the large "OB" once again and taken through town for locals to sign.RELATED: 10 eats you must try inside Liberty Station Public Market"Lots of people swim every summer we estimate about 10, 000 buoy swims. Mostly lifeguards and junior lifeguards but swim teams water polo teams and triathletes as well," Strobel said. "'David Buoy' has been embraced by the OB community and we as lifeguards really appreciate the support."Strobel says swimmers should always check with a lifeguard before swimming out to any buoys and swim when lifeguards are on duty. And if someone can swim to a buoy in about 10 minutes, " you are an excellent candidate to become a lifeguard.""Know your limitations and know the conditions," Strobel says.Lifeguard tryouts are held every September for the following summer. Anyone interested in become a San Diego Lifeguard can find more information on the city's website here. 2571