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The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The main actors from “The Princess Bride” are reuniting virtually this month, and not everyone is happy about the reason why.The cast, including Cary Elwes, Robin Wright, Carol Kane, Chris Sarandon, Mandy Pantinkin, Wallace Shawn, Billy Crystal, and Rob Reiner, will be doing a script read of the 1987 film followed by a Q&A. It’s part of a fundraiser for the Wisconsin Democrats.“Anything you donate will be used to ensure that Trump loses Wisconsin, and thereby the White House,” the event sign-up page reads.Texas Republican, and “The Princess Bride” fan, Senator Ted Cruz fired back at the actors. Following a tweet from Elwes promoting the event, he responded with one of his own.“Do you hear that Fezzik? That is the sound of ultimate suffering. My heart made that sound when the six-fingered man killed my father. Every Princess Bride fan who wants to see that perfect movie preserved from Hollywood politics makes it now.” 942

The jittery stock market is once again heading south.The Dow dropped 327 points, or 1.3%, on Thursday, with selling accelerating after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin backed out of a conferencein Saudi Arabia. The index had been down 471 points at one point.Tech stocks fell sharply, sending the Nasdaq tumbling 2.1%. Netflix declined 5%, while Facebook and Amazon lost about 3% apiece.Stock market volatility is back on Wall Street. Fears about rising bond yields and the US-China trade war sparked heavy selling last week, the worst for all three major indexes since March. Stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday, before another wobbly session on Wednesday. The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index of market sentiment is flashing "extreme fear."The market slide gathered steam on Thursday after Mnuchin announced on Twitter that he will not participate in the Saudi summit. Mnuchin said it was a joint decision with President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. An administration official told CNN that no other government officials will attend the event in Mnuchin's place.The news adds to rising global uncertainties, including concerns about Italy's budget and a plunge in China's stock market.David Kotok, chief investment of Cumberland Advisers, said he believes Thursday's market slide was driven more by concerns about Italy and China."But Mnuchin doesn't help things," said Kotok.Mnuchin's announcement points to elevated tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia over the disappearance of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.Saudi Arabia has threatened to retaliate against potential US sanctions. The kingdom is the world's largest oil exporter, giving it great sway over global energy prices. US oil prices briefly bounced on the Mnuchin news but closed lower on the day.Saudi Arabia has also played a huge role financing the rise of Silicon Valley, serving as the tech industry's unofficial banker.But the market has also been pressured by other international developments. Even before Mnuchin's tweet, analysts pointed out that Italian bond yields spiked due to concerns about Italy's budget proposal. The European Union plans to send a formal warning letter to Rome to signal displeasure over plans to increase Italy's budget deficit, Reuters reported.Chinese markets were also under pressure. The Shanghai Composite plunged nearly 3% overnight, falling deeper into a bear market as the US-China trade war continues to linger.US investors continue to move money out of the riskiest parts of the market and into defensive areas. While tech stocks fell sharply, defensive areas such as utilities and telecom rose slightly."There is a rotation away from the tech and momentum names," Kotok said. "One has to ask: Has FANG been defanged?" 2868

The mother of a 14-year-old boy with autism, who was traumatized after a run-in with a Buckeye, Arizona officer, says she never expected that what happened to her son would spark a national discussion. Diane Leibel also said see police body camera video was also one of the hardest things she’s ever had to do. “It was excruciating honestly,” she said. “I’ve never heard my son scream like that before. I don’t understand how it even got there.” On July 19, a Buckeye Officer named David Grossman mistook Connor Leibel for a drug user. As he drove by a quiet neighborhood park, Grossman claimed he saw Connor putting his hand up to his face, giving him reasonable suspicion to handcuff and detain the boy. It turned out Connor was using a small string to “stim” – a coping mechanism common for people with autism.  Phoenix-based KNXV broke the story about the video on Monday afternoon. Since, reports about the incident have appeared on every local Phoenix station, some national shows, and it’s even been picked up by the New York Times. The reason: It’s sparking a debate about how officers deal and confront individuals with mental illness, other disabilities, and autism. “We were afraid that our child would be ridiculed or that something would happen somewhere along the line,” Danielle Leibel said. "I didn’t think it would be from a police officer.” COMPLAINT DISMISSEDThe day after the incident, Leibel filed a citizen’s complaint with the police department against Grossman, a “drug-recognition expert.” Weeks later, officials up and down Grossman’s chain of command cleared him of using unreasonable force and that he had reasonable suspicion to detain the boy. After the final decision, no one from Buckeye police notified Leibel, she said. “I’m every emotion I can think of. That’s my baby who was manhandled like that,” Leibel said. “I do see that would be reasonable to approach him if he saw him putting something to his face….But after he showed him what he had, that should have diffused the situation. It should end there.” Parents of other children with autism have told KNXV they are horrified by what happened and how the incident was handled by the officer. However, some people are also blaming Leibel’s parents and his caregiver for leaving him alone. His mother’s response: “He’s a 14-year-old. He’s higher functioning. He’s not a danger to himself or others…He plays in that park every week, and we’ve never had an issue.“I’ve never, in his 14 years, had an issue or have anybody suspect he was on drugs,” Leibel said. After the incident, Buckeye Police announced they are working on creating a voluntary register for people with disabilities, mental illness, and autism. They also proposed that those individuals wear bracelets. The registry would allow officer to look up specific information on people the come into contact with. Leibel and other parents of children with autism told KNXV they were disgusted by the idea. “I think it’s disgusting that you have to label someone with a disability with a special mark so they don’t have to live in fear of being hurt by police,” she said. “How would that have changed (the situation with my son) at all.” A parent of another child with autism who lives in Buckeye told KNXV the idea reminded him of the "Holocaust."  3418

The Justice Department is preventing Senate investigators from interviewing two top FBI officials who could provide first-hand testimony over the firing of former FBI Director James Comey, the latest sign that Special Counsel Robert Mueller could be investigating the circumstances around the firing, officials tell CNN.The previously undisclosed turf war comes as the Senate judiciary committee has not yet given assurances to the special counsel's office that it could have unfettered access to the transcript of the interview it conducted last week with the President's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., saying that the full Senate must first authorize the release of the information to Mueller's team. 709