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Predicting the outcome of elections can sometimes be easy. Other years, it is not. Professor Allan Lichtman has predicted every election since 1984, using a model he developed alongside Soviet Union scientists.One of Lichtman's proudest achievements was accurately predicting the 2016 election. President Donald Trump signed a Washington Post article about Lichtman in recent years with his autograph and the phrase "good call."THE METHODLichtman doesn't look at polls."Polls are not predictors, they are misused as predictors," Lichtman said.Instead, Lichtman looks at the political party currently controlling the White House. Then he uses 13 keys to gauge whether the party controlling the White House will lose or not.They are: midterm gains, no contest in the primary, incumbency, no third party, strong short-term economy, strong long-term economy, major policy change, no social unrest, no scandal, no overseas failure, major overseas achievement, charismatic incumbent, uncharismatic opponent."If six or more, any six more, turn against the party holding the White House, they are a predicted loser," Luchtman said.2020 PREDICTIONLichtman says before 2020, Trump appeared to be heading to a reelection. However Trump has now lost seven keys.In Lichtman's opinion, Trump has lost midterm gains, short term economy, long-term economy, no social unrest, no scandal, major overseas achievement, and charismatic incumbent."Could I be wrong? Of course human beings are wrong. But my keys have quite a track record," Lichtman said. 1541

President Donald Trump bragged about a booming economy, touted his tough actions on international trade and lambasted Democrats for obstructing his agenda on Capitol Hill at a campaign rally Tuesday night in Tampa.Trump was in Florida to endorse GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis for governor ahead of a late-August primary. Compared with past campaign rallies where he has veered off script, the President remained relatively on message Tuesday night about the economy -- an approach that could give Republicans in competitive races hope as Trump ramps up his political travel schedule ahead of November's midterm electionsHe bragged about a soaring stock market, low unemployment rates and a drop in the trade deficit in the most recent quarter, though economists have said that latter figure could be artificially inflated by companies rushing to move products as trade wars on multiple fronts loom."The days of plundering American jobs and American wealth -- those days are over," Trump said.He heaped praise on farmers, who have seen their access to some foreign markets curtailed as a result of retaliatory moves as Trump has sought to reverse a trade deficit with China, renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and restart trade talks with the European Union.His administration recently announced a billion bailout for farmers hurt by the tariffs triggered by his trade moves."I want to thank our farmers. Our farmers are true patriots because China and others have targeted ... our farmers. Not good. Not nice," Trump said. "And you know what our farmers are saying? 'It's OK. We can take it.' These are incredible people."He also bragged that rural areas were "beautiful, Republican red" in the 2016 election.Some of Trump's claims about the economy were exaggerated or inaccurate. He said US Steel is opening six new mills. But as a publicly traded company, US Steel is required to announce such changes and so far has not done so.He also made false claims about the cost of moving the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Trump said at times in Tampa that the move cost 0,000 and 0,000.However, the 0,000 figure was just the cost of security upgrades and a US Embassy plaque ahead of a ceremonial opening in May. The US government is planning to spend million for a second phase of renovations that includes building an addition to the old consular building to accommodate embassy staff. And US officials have not ruled out the possibility of ultimately moving the US Embassy to an entirely different site, where a new embassy would be built.In Tampa, Trump also alluded to the possibility of a government shutdown at the end of September, saying he "may have to do some pretty drastic things" to get funding for a wall."But we're going to get it," he said. "Cause the Democrats are not voting for what we want to do, and they're not voting and allowing our values to take place in our country."Trump reiterated his calls for laws requiring voters to show photo identification. Largely Democratic critics of such laws say they risk disenfranchising elderly and urban voters who don't drive.In doing so, he said buying groceries requires an ID."You know if you go out and you want to buy groceries, you need a picture on a card. You need ID," Trump said.The rally came at the beginning of a three-month sprint to the November midterm elections.Trump is telling aides he wants to considerably step up the number of rallies he is holding, and his team is looking at ways to do just that, a source familiar with the President's thinking said Tuesday.Trump is annoyed at the probe by special counsel Robert Mueller and concerned that it is allowing his opponents to chip away at his legitimacy as President.But Trump is also concerned about the outcome of the midterms. He is nervous that the Democrats are going to take the House and stymie his agenda.The source also said this frame of mind helps explain the President's renewed manic tweeting. "He is in worker mode," the source said.Because of that, he is reacting as he often does and has his entire career. He is arguing that he must act himself -- that he wants to take things into his own hands, the source said.However, while Trump could help Republicans in Senate races like North Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia, many of 2018's battlegrounds -- particularly in House races -- are in suburban areas where he is unpopular.Still, he has been a force in recent weeks in GOP primaries.Trump's first expressed support for DeSantis in December and more explicitly endorsed him with a tweet in June, launching him past former congressman and Florida agriculture commissioner Adam Putnam in the race to replace two-term GOP Gov. Rick Scott.DeSantis, whose campaign has featured frequent guest appearances on Fox News, has clung closely to Trump in the campaign.In a television ad touting Trump's endorsement that is narrated by his wife, DeSantis helps his toddler daughter "build the wall" and reads Trump's "The Art of the Deal" to his infant son. He teaches his daughter to read a "Make America Great Again" Trump sign, and the ad includes a shot of his son in a "Make America Great Again" onesie.Trump, meanwhile, has seen the importance of his endorsement grow in GOP primaries after Alabama voters ignored him and chose Roy Moore over interim Sen. Luther Strange last year.Two House candidates he backed -- Katie Arrington in South Carolina and Rep. Martha Roby in a runoff for her seat in Alabama -- both won. Then Trump-backed Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp crushed Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle in a Republican gubernatorial primary runoff last week.Trump vanquished two of Florida's most famous GOP figures -- former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio -- in 2016's GOP presidential primary. Bush had dropped out by the time the Florida primary took place, and Trump won the state with 46% support to Rubio's second-place 27% showing. 5938

POMONA (CNS) - A 38-year-old man was charged today with the murder of a 9-year-old girl whose body was found partially inside a large duffel bag near an equestrian trail in the Hacienda Heights area.Emiel Lamar Hunt -- who is believed to be the boyfriend of Trinity Love Jones' mother -- was arrested early Saturday in connection with the girl's death. Sheriff's officials said Hunt was found sleeping in his vehicle in a lot near San Diego International Airport. The arrest was assisted by the Port of San Diego Harbor Police. Hunt appeared briefly in a Pomona courtroom Tuesday, but his arraignment was delayed until April 16. He remains jailed in lieu of million bail.The criminal complaint alleges that Hunt has a 2005 conviction for child abuse from San Diego County. He could face up to 50 years to life in state prison if convicted as charged, according to the Los Angeles County District Attorney's Office.Sheriff's officials said earlier that two "persons of interest'' had been detained for questioning in the case, but only Hunt was charged Tuesday.Sheriff's officials said they were not disclosing any additional information about the second person of interest, pending further investigation. The victim's relatives told reporters the girl's mother was the second person beingquestioned, but sheriff's officials would not confirm those reports, and there is no record of her being arrested.County workers clearing some brush in the area found the girl's body found about 10 a.m. March 5. The girl was partially inside a black roll-away- type duffel bag, with her head and upper body protruding from the partially zipped bag left at the bottom of an embankment close to Colima Road and the 3400 block of Hacienda Boulevard, near the His Lai Buddhist Temple, authorities said.The coroner's office ruled her death a homicide, but officials have not said how the girl died.Sheriff's detectives initially asked for the public's help in identifying the girl, releasing a composite sketch of the child and photos of the clothing she was wearing. Family members who created a memorial of candles, flowers, balloons, stuffed animals and photos near where the girl's body was found eventually confirmed her identity."Words can't explain what I'm feeling right now,'' Anthony Jones, Trinity's father, said at the memorial site. ``I just want answers. I just want justice. She was just the best -- full of character, full of life, full of joy.''Jones said he learned of his youngest daughter's death through a telephone call. 2536

POWAY, Calif., (KGTV)-- Fire crews battled a house fire in Poway Sunday afternoon after neighbors heard hissing sounds and an explosion. Poway and San Diego Fire departments responded to the 13,000 block of Silver Saddle Lane after getting a 9-1-1 call at around 1:15 pm. When crews arrived, they found the side of the home on fire. "The fire was just on the garage and the exterior of the garage. It appears it did not make it into the house," Poway Fire Battalion Chief Ray Fried said. Batt. Chief Fried said the methane levels were too high, above 0 ppm, which meant his fire crews needed to stand down until SDG&E cleared the gas leak. "We're not going inside at this time, because the gas readings are fairly high inside the house," Batt. Chief Fried said. No one was inside the home at the time of the explosion. One family next door was evacuated in an abundance of caution. 894

POLK COUNTY, Fla. -- A Miami man has been arrested after he reportedly traveled to Polk County to kidnap and sexually batter a young girl whom he met online. Jonathan Diaz Fundora, 23, was arrested by Polk County Sheriff's Office on Tuesday evening. He was booked into the Polk County Jail on Wednesday afternoon and has been charged with the following:  372

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