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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The City of San Diego is working to transform Little Italy into an outdoor dining experience. They're streamlining the process for shops and restaurants to serve more customers while promoting social distancing under a new outdoor dining and shopping proposal.Marla Encinas had to close her Little Italy clothing boutique, Valmare, for two months. "We tried to do online selling but its definitely not the same," said Encinas. RELATED: Is 'Curbside Gaslamp' a preview of Fifth Ave.'s future?The store is back open now under new rules about cleaning, capacity and social distancing. But, for any business, fewer customers often means less revenue. The city of San Diego is trying to change that. On Thursday, Mayor Kevin Faulconer announced a proposal to waive fees and fast-track the permit process to bring restaurants and shops outdoors. "They’ll be allowed to maximize outdoor space to allow physical distancing and expand the number of customers they can serve," said Faulconer. RELATED: Gaslamp Quarter thoroughfare may become promenadeEncinas says her store is definitely on board. "I think its going to be really cool to be outside in the open air and be able to bring out our business," said Encinas. With approved permits, businesses can set up tables and chairs or racks of clothes and other items on sidewalks, streets, and parking lots. "I would love to do both jewelry and clothing," said Encinas. "I would love to bring out summer stuff because the weather is so nice, people are starting to slowly go out."Last Saturday, Little Italy had their first al-fresco dining event on India Street. By adding retail shops in the mix, more businesses will get a much-needed chance to bounce back from Covid-19. "It's going to be very fun," said Encinas. "You’re going to have a bunch of different vendors, it's going to be different than your typical shopping experience."Businesses can apply for the outdoor dining permits on the city's website. The proposal is going before city council for approval during the first week of July. 2066

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The mother of a San Diego middle school student is begging for more answers from school administrators after she says other students threatened to shoot and stab her son. “I’m not willing to play Russian roulette with my kid’s life,” states Vanessa Flores. In a 10News exclusive, we interviewed her and her thirteen year-old son, Daniel, at their home on Tuesday. She says she pulled Daniel out of downtown’s KIPP Adelante charter middle school on Tuesday morning. It was two weeks ago when Daniel says he got in a fight with a couple of students. He says over their lunch break they were saying, “What are we going to do with Daniel? Are we going to jump him? Let’s jump him. Let’s bring the gun.” Daniel tells us he them heard one of them add, “The gun’s too much. Let’s bring the knife.” Vanessa showed us text messages that she says she exchanged with the school’s principal the night of the incident. She says she later met with administrators. “I just wanted the authorities to be contacted and made aware of the situation,” she adds. For days, she says her family could not get clear answers about any action the school was taking.  With tears in his eyes, Daniel described for us the anxiety he felt in the school hallways in the days following the alleged threats. “I’d think, what’s the next move? What are they going to do to me when I pass by the hallway? What do they have or what are they hiding?” “I’ve told [the school] that I’m in fear with the climate right now with all these shootings. Everybody’s talking about red flags. I’m giving [the school] the red flags on a silver platter. Please help me,” says Vanessa. On Tuesday, she says she picked Daniel up the from school after getting confirmation from school administrators that KIPP Adelante would not get the San Diego Police Department involved. She tells us she no longer felt safe keeping him on that campus. After picking him up from school, she says she took him to the San Diego Police Department to try to file a report. San Diego Police confirm with 10News that there was a misunderstanding that she was referring to a charter school and not a regular San Diego Unified School District (SDUSD) public school. She says SDPD sent her to SDUSD school police, which don’t handle investigations related to local charter schools. The SDUSD school police apparently sent her back to SDPD. SDPD confirms its officers took a report on Tuesday afternoon and now the juvenile service team is investigating the reported threats. On Tuesday afternoon, KIPP Adelante charter school principal Monique McKeown sent us the following statement. “Two weeks ago, we had an 8th grade student report that two of his classmates threatened to harm him with a weapon. We fully investigated the matter and found no credible evidence that the students in question threatened to use a weapon against their classmate. San Diego Unified Police Services confirmed that we handled the investigation appropriately. At KIPP we respond swiftly to all potential threats to student safety.” The referenced "San Diego Unified Police Services" is also known as SDUSD school police. A spokesperson for KIPP Adelante later clarified that SDUSD school police did not conduct its own investigation. Rather, it apparently reviewed and approved the school’s own investigation. The spokesperson for KIPP Adelante also reported that the teens who made the apparent threats are still students at the school. 3559

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The Gubernatorial Primary Election is on Tuesday, June 5. Voters who are interested in getting their ballots in before Election Day can now do so at the San Diego County Registrar of Voters office.Early voting began on Monday, May 6 after the United States Postal Service sent out more than 1 million mail ballots. These ballots appeared in voters' mailboxes the very same day.Early voting continues through Friday, from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m and until the polls close on Election Day at 8 p.m.The Registrar of Voters Office is open for weekend voting from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Saturday, June 2 and Sunday, June 3. Registered voters can also request a mail ballot until May 29 if they do not wish to vote in person.The Registrar of Voters Office is located at 5600 Overland Avenue on the County Operations Center campus in Kearny Mesa. 855

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The father accused of causing a condo fire in Rancho Bernardo that killed his two children appeared in court Tuesday afternoon for a preliminary hearing.Henry Lopez is accused of passing out drunk with a lit cigarette, setting his condo on fire last October.His children, 10-year-old Cristos and 7-year-old Isabella, were in the home at the time and suffered smoke inhalation. Both children died as a result of their injuries.Lopez was also burned in the fire and hospitalized for some time.One witness told the court Tuesday he heard a female screaming at the scene, but the screaming stopped.RELATED: Father charged after children killed in fireHenry Lopez' ex-wife Nikia Lopez testified the two were in the midst of a divorce. They shared joint custody of their children.  Lopez told the judge her former husband was an abusive alcoholic.She claims she had warned him previously not to smoke in the house around the children."He drank a lot. My goal was to keep it from the kids.  I would wake up in the middle of the night and throw away the bottles in the trash. I would pull him upstairs before the kids woke in the morning... sometimes I would have to clean up his throw up."  He’s not in custody because his defense attorney says he needs to be out to receive medical treatment for the burns he sustained during the fire.Prosecutors believe the fire started in his bed and ultimately spread to the rest of the home.  Investigators found discarded smoking materials and alcohol near the start of the fire.If there’s enough evidence against Lopez and the case goes to trial, he faces up to 14 years in prison for several felony counts including involuntary manslaughter and child endangerment.Lopez is not charged with intentionally starting the fire. 1809

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