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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The cycle of debt is something a lot of people are desperate to break. One of the biggest challenges is keeping up with credit cards, payments and beating the interest rates. Now, a San Diego startup is offering people an opportunity to make purchases on items they may need for themselves or their families, without interest rates, credit checks, or penalties. Marc Schneider is the CEO of Zebit, an online shopping site designed to help people facing financial hardships, get on track, make payments and get what they need. “We’re trying to provide sort of an Amazon for the under-served,” said Schneider. RELATED: San Diego Workforce teams up with UCSD Extension to offer student loan alternativeWhile growing up, Schneider and his family faced financial struggles of their own. “I’ve supported my mother since I was 15 years old. I grew up in a mobile home with a separated family. Ended up being homeless on food stamps,” said Schneider. Now, Schneider is a successful entrepreneur, with Zebit hitting million in 2017, and million last year. “Zebit was built to change how consumers get access to credit, to give them a fair deal and have zero gotchas,” Schneider said. In order to make purchases on Zebit, you first need to create a profile which includes providing your current employment status and driver’s license. The company then uses that information to verify your employment and determine how much of a Zebit line you will receive. The Zebit line is similar to store credit or having a credit card, but without the interest rates and penalties and with the chance to make payments for purchases over a 6 to 12 month period of time. RELATED: Realtors expect busy spring for buyers and sellersFor example, a MacBook Air on Zebit may cost around ,273. The may break down to 8 upfront with 12 payments of a month. A five-piece dining set may cost around up front, with monthly payments around dollars.“We’ve heard stories like you save my Christmas, my daughter wouldn’t have had a birthday present if it wasn’t for you, I couldn’t get married because I didn’t have a way to finance an engagement ring,” said Schneider.Some of the items on Zebit can cost 5 to 10 percent more than some items on Amazon, however the company still stresses that their interest-free model and competitive prices makes it a great shopping experience that was designed with people who may not a lot of money, or struggle with credit card payments and interest rates. “I wanna build a big company that makes an impact on a consumer base, a consumer base that tends to be invisible that tends to be neglected and a consumer base that tends to really rip people off over time,” said Schneider. Schneider hopes his company will help others break their own cycle of debt. 2808

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Surveillance video shows a couple at a Kearny Mesa home, targeting an American flag.John Dodds bought his flag two years ago and displayed it with a light outside his home on Atlas Street."My father was a Navy veteran, my brother was very patriotic and instilled it within me," Dodds said. "I want everyone to know how much I appreciate this country and what the veterans of this country do for us."A flag typically flies in front of Dodd's home 365 days a year. On Thursday morning, Dodds walked outside and saw the empty flag holder, before reviewing his surveillance video.Around 8:30 p.m. Wednesday night, two people with backpacks - bandanas on their faces -  walked by. One of them walked up to his porch and yanked out the flag before she took off. Dodds posted the video on the Nextdoor app in hopes of tracking down those thieves - and his flag.        "Maybe it was a big joke to them, but I don't think they know how seriously most of us take the flag of the United States of America," he said. Dodds plans on getting another flag but is still holding out hope for it to be returned. If you have any information, call San Diego Police at (619) 531-2000. 1261

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The family of a missing Arizona grandmother believes that she may be heading to San Diego.On Monday, ABC10 News spoke to Aaron Richardson about his grandmother, Alice Fults, who was last seen on Friday morning in Chandler, Arizona. "You'd never think this would happen to you and for it to happen and [to] somebody you know totally tears you apart," he told ABC10 News.On Monday afternoon, Chandler Police confirmed that the 58-year-old stroke survivor and dementia patient got on a Greyhound bus on Friday morning that was bound for Los Angeles.Her family says that she could be trying to get to San Diego which is where she grew up and where her sister still lives. "She's from Lakeside so she always talked about Lakeside, California and how she wanted to go back to Lakeside," said Richardson.Fults has hearts with names tattooed on her legs and horseshoes tattooed on her arms. She has a drooping eyelid from her stroke and needs her seizure medication. Her family told ABC10 News that she left with her granddaughter's ID but not her own ID. She doesn't have a cell phone. Family added that she has a history of wandering off but never for more than a few hours."If you see this, Alice...I love you, grandma. Get some help, okay? Let us know you're okay," Richardson added.Chandler Police have issued a silver alert and are working on notifying law enforcement in Southern California about her disappearance. You're asked to call police if you have any information to provide. 1509

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The man who received 2,000 of his dead father’s Social Security benefits was sentenced Monday to federal prison time.Abel Perez, 55, pleaded guilty to accepting the benefits after his father died in 1997.Prosecutors said Perez would forge his father’s signature on a check payable to himself and divert the funds for his personal use.Perez admitted he knew he was not entitled to the funds which were put into the account.“The Social Security Administration’s Office of the Inspector General is pleased to see that this crime, which affects every individual relying on the Social Security Trust Fund for their retirement, was taken seriously and punished appropriately in this case,” said Robb Stickley, the Special Agent in Charge of the San Francisco Field Division, which is responsible for Southern California.  “We hope that this sentence sends a message that it is the responsibility of every individual in our society to protect their own retirement savings, and ensure that a loved one’s death does not go unreported.”A judge sentenced Perez to one year and one day in federal prison. Perez will also have to repay the money. 1168

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