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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

One day after 17 lives were taken during a school shooting in Florida, a grandmother in Everett, Washington was given credit on Thursday for foiling a planned school shooting, according to a police press release. According to the press release released on Thursday, the grandmother of 18-year-old high school student Joshua Alexander O'Connor called 911 after finding O'Connor's journal that allegedly detailed plans to kill classmates. After the grandmother showed law enforcement the journal, O'Connor was arrested on Tuesday for attempted murder. Police said detectives seized O’Connor’s journal, inert grenades, a cellular phone and a High Point 9 mm carbine rifle following a search warrant. “This is a case where the adage ‘see something, say something’ potentially saved many lives,” said Everett Police Chief Dan Templeman. “It is critically important for community members, to include students and parents, to remain observant and immediately report odd or suspicious behaviors with our children or with fellow students. We were fortunate that a family member believed there were credible threats and contacted law enforcement for further investigation. I’m sure the decision was difficult to make, but fortunately, it was the correct one.”O'Connor's bail has been set at million. O'Connor is a student at ACES High School in Everett. Templeman said that an additional officer will patrol ACES High School out of caution.  1507

Nothing is more damaging to #EqualityForWomen movement than a whore like @KamalaHarris who F’s the boss for career advancement#MAGA #KAG #KamalaHarrisForVP #ChangeMyMind pic.twitter.com/VJsFJnBYXc— Hector Gastelum (@HectorVote) August 11, 2020 257

One lucky person could celebrate this year's Easter weekend holiday by winning the fourth largest Mega Millions lottery jackpot in history.The jackpot for the March 30 drawing is now an estimated 2 million after no tickets matched all six numbers drawn in Tuesday night's drawing. The cash value of the jackpot is 1 million.The winning numbers in the March 27 drawing were 7, 25, 43, 56, 59 with 13 as the Mega Ball. Three tickets sold in Florida matched four numbers and the Mega Ball and are worth ,000 each.The 2 million is the largest Mega Millions jackpot since July 8, 2016, when one winning ticket sold Cambridge City, Indiana won a 6 million jackpot.Lottery officials report the jackpot has rolled over 23 times since 20-year-old Shane Missler of Port Richey, Florida, won a 1 million jackpot on January 5.Each Mega Millions ticket costs two dollars to purchase. The deadline to buy a ticket for the 2 million jackpot is 10:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, March 30.The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 302,575,350. For more information, visit www.megamillions.com. 1106

On Tuesday, the Justice Department awarded more than million in grants to nonprofits who help survivors of human trafficking.Attorney General William Barr, Ivanka Trump, an adviser to President Donald Trump, and other officials announced that 73 organizations in 34 states will receive the grants, which will be provided by the Office for Victims of Crime, which is a component within the Justice Department's Office of Justice Programs.“Human trafficking is a barbaric criminal enterprise that subjects its victims to unspeakable cruelty and deprives them of the most basic of human needs, none more essential than a safe place to live,” Attorney General Barr said in the statement. “Throughout this Administration, the Department of Justice has fought aggressively to bring human traffickers to justice and to deliver critical aid to trafficking survivors. These new resources, announced today, expand on our efforts to offer those who have suffered the shelter and support they need to begin a new and better life.”Victims who receive the grants will be able to use the funds to receive counseling, find transitional or short-term housing assistance, as well as permanent housing, employment, and job training.“In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, combating human trafficking in the U.S. and abroad is critical work. DOJ’s grant recipients are on the frontlines of this fight, ensuring that survivors across our country are afforded safe and stable housing and empowered with the support and resources they need to rebuild their lives,” said Ivanka Trump in the statement. “I am incredibly honored to join Attorney General Barr to highlight these organizations and their tireless and vital work.”To see a complete list of who will receive the grants, click here. 1779