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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — After the polls close on Election Night, ABC News and the other major networks will start projecting winners and “calling” races, in some cases well before the official vote counts are finalized.They’ll do it by relying on data from a New Jersey-based company called Edison Research.Edison provides exit polls, survey data, and vote counts for ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN. The company has provided data for this group of networks, known as the National Election Pool, since 2004.“We know what we're doing is really, really important,” said the company’s president Larry Rosin.In certain races, networks will project a winner shortly after the polls close, sometimes before state election officials report any official vote totals. Such a projection is nicknamed an “insta-call” in the news business.Networks only make insta-calls in races where Edison’s exit polls and telephone surveys in the days leading up to the election show a decisive winner, Rosin said.ABC News only issues a projection when statistical models overseen by a team of mathematicians and elections experts show a winner with 99.5 percent confidence.Each network has its own team of experts that crunch Edison’s numbers. Fox News makes projections based on data provided by the Associated Press.When a race is close, the network decision teams turn to more complicated math.“It’s a matter of looking at that historical vote all the way down to the precinct or county level and comparing how the vote is coming in, in that state up to that point,” said Rosin.On Election Night, Edison has thousands of employees fanned out in virtually every county across the nation, monitoring the vote count as it comes in and manually reporting the totals when necessary. There are other employees whose job is to check the numbers for accuracy.Edison’s data helps networks understand how preliminary vote totals compare to the way regions voted in the past, which is an important metric in an election forecast.“If every precinct was just a little bit more Republican than it had been four years ago, you have a good sense that all the other precincts that are similar will likely be a little more Republican, and the Republican will do a little better than four years ago,” Rosin said as an example.Using those kinds of trends, the networks then forecast how many ballots are still left to be counted, and what kind of ballots those are -- either in-person early votes, in-person votes on Election Day, or mail-in votes.At that point it comes down to a formula, comparing the known reported votes to the outstanding votes a candidate is likely to gain.“It’s a very high pressure project, but I’m proud to say that no network has made an incorrect call since the 2004 cycle,” which was Edison’s first year providing election data to the networks, Rosin said.The company started doing this after the debacle in 2000, when networks incorrectly called the race in Florida between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Rosin said a lot of things have changed since then.“The pressure to make calls correctly really superseded the pressure to call quickly,” he said.This year could be a challenging one to forecast, Rosin said, with so many more mail-in ballots because of the pandemic. Mail-in ballots take longer to process because election workers have to compare the signature on the mail-in ballot against the signature a voter has on file.For that reason, Rosin said it may take a while for the networks to call races in certain key battleground states that start their counting process late, like Pennsylvania and Michigan. 3594

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — An unresponsive man was pulled to shore Wednesday after possibly being swept out to sea by strong waves along Ocean Beach's coast.San Diego Fire-Rescue lifeguards responded to reports of the man not breathing at about 2 p.m. at Dog Beach. Lifeguards on jet skis found the man lodged into the rocks on the jetty, according to SDFD Sgt. Bruce Jamieson. He had reportedly been swept about 75 yards from shore, according to SDFD.Lifeguards performed CPR and rushed the man to a nearby hospital, but did not give an update on his condition.Witnesses said the man, who is approximately 50-years-old and from Nevada, may have been chasing after his dog in the water when he was pulled out to sea.A high surf advisory was issued for San Diego County's coastline from 10 a.m. Wednesday to 10 p.m. Thursday, bringing large sets and the threat of rip currents to the area's shores. Due to the high surf, lifeguards closed Ocean Beach Pier early Wednesday. 971

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Almost immediately after Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were announced as the projected winning ticket, the San Diego community took to the streets.In Hillcrest, Biden-Harris supporters lined University Avenue holding signs and flags, with cars packed onto the street honking their horns loudly. The honking and cheering lasted well into the night.“I think healing at this point is what the country needs,” said Joe Hoffman, a Biden supporter in Hillcrest.At Waterfront Park in Downtown San Diego, a crowd of President Trump’s supporters lined the streets with similar signs and cheers, also encouraging people to honk.One San Diego man and supporter of President Trump made the decision to drive to Sacramento through Friday night, arriving Saturday morning to the news of the projected winners. After the overnight drive, Blake Marnell attended a rally in front of the Capitol. He said he won’t give up on President Trump until all the votes have been counted and all legal battles are complete.“I don’t think this is the final outcome and I’m going to be behind the president as long as he’s in the fight,” said Marnell, adding that “The people [who] support the president are optimistic. We’re still behind him. We will be behind him as long as he’s in the fight.” 1292

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- A six-year-old boy was rushed to the hospital after accidentally shooting himself Tuesday night, according to the San Diego Police Department.The incident happened around 8 p.m. in the 4300 block of 52nd St. in the Colina Del Sol neighborhood near City Heights, a few blocks north of Fay Elementary School.San Diego police say the child was playing with the gun when he shot himself in the chest.City News Service, citing information from SDPD Officer John Buttle, reported the boy was in his grandmother's room when he discovered a .22-caliber handgun underneath a mattress.Police say the bullet went through the boy's chest, and the child was conscious and breathing when officers arrived. The boy was taken to Rady Children's Hospital with unknown injuries. His condition is unknown at this time. 827

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — A scenario study on a 6.9-magnitude earthquake on the Rose Canyon fault zone paints a bleak picture, saying the San Diego region could suffer "devastating consequences."The San Diego Earthquake Planning Scenario report examines the possible outcome of such an earthquake on the Rose Canyon fault line, which runs through the heart of downtown San Diego. Under the scenario, the report concludes that a quake of this size could cause severe damage to buildings and emergency infrastructure and have "devastating consequences" on communities and the local economy.RELATED: Examining San Diego's fault lines after Ridgecrest earthquake"Damages will cause business interruptions across most economic sectors, estimated at .2 billion dollars in lost income throughout San Diego County," the report says. "Additionally, the earthquake will damage a large percentage of the housing stock in the San Diego region, further exacerbating housing affordability issues particularly for more vulnerable populations such as low income residents."While the report is not a precise look at San Diego's seismic history or forecast of its future, it believes a 6.9M earthquake could potentially cause several scenarios: billion in damages, in which 120,000 buildings would suffer moderate to complete damage, 8,000 buildings would be beyond repair, and 36,000 households would be displaced;Many older and more vulnerable buildings, including key City of San Diego buildings, could be severely damaged and suffer from partial to total collapse;Coastal communities, stretching from La Jolla to Silver Strand, could be cut off from nearly all lifeline utilities and services, with some basic services being out for months; andLoss of water pressure to certain communities could also impact response to any fires; andInterstate 5 corridor would also be severely impacted, as potential roadway and bridge failures could present more challenges for first responders and residents"Community and economic activity could be disrupted for years until the region’s housing stock, commercial and government facilities, and infrastructure are repaired or replaced," the report said.RELATED: San Diego urged to make water line improvements ahead of future earthquakesBased on its findings, the report recommended several steps moving forward to prepare San Diego for seismic activity, including:A county-wide study of earthquake hazards;Formation of a "seismic resilience" group to identify mitigation actions, priorities, and funding;Local jurisdictions should compile vulnerable structures and develop a way to retrofit them;Various agencies — including wasterwater utilities and emergency management agencies — identify and prioritize investments into needed upgrades; andUpdates to emergency response plans for local jurisdictions and increase public awareness Ideally, the study envisions the San Diego region being retrofitted and ready for a major earthquake by 2050."With a better understanding of the severity of damage, challenges for repair, and the interconnectedness of structures and their lifelines, communities can take mitigation measures to aid in reducing the potential impacts to life and property and societal disruption in the region following future earthquakes. The conclusion of this report is a call to action in the form of a vision for a seismically resilient San Diego," the report says.The report was prepared by a team of geoscience and structural engineering professionals and researchers led by San Diego Regional Chapter of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. Experts will discuss the findings during the National Earthquake Conference, being held in San Diego this week.Read the full scenario report here. 3750

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