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The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has been issuing frequent projections since March in an attempt to model the spread and impact of the coronavirus across the world.The models have been used by the CDC and White House coronavirus task force in an effort to better understand the potential number of deaths the coronavirus could cause.On Friday, the model added a new variable, one that could cause a steep decline of coronavirus deaths throughout the US. The IHME’s newest model, which predicts the number of coronavirus deaths in the US through the end of March, is now weighing the potential impact of vaccines on the virus.For those hoping for an immediate drop in hospitalizations and deaths caused by the coronavirus as soon as vaccinations begin later this month might be disappointed. The IHME's model shows the initial batch of vaccinations will have a relatively muted effect on deaths and hospitalizations initially. While by April 1, much of the general US population will likely not be fully vaccinated, many in the high-risk category should expect to vaccinated by then. How fast they get vaccinated will play a role in determining the number of coronavirus deaths in the US.As of Friday evening, there have been over 278,000 coronavirus-related deaths reported throughout the US, per Johns Hopkins University data. Without any vaccines reaching Americans, the IHME’s model projects a total of 548,000 would die from the coronavirus through April 1, meaning 270,000 deaths between now and then.If COVID-19 vaccines are distributed at expected levels, 9,000 lives would be saved by April 1, reducing the number of deaths between now and then to 261,000. But a rapid vaccine rollout – one that would vaccinate the high-risk population and begin to vaccinate the general population by the spring -- would result in 250,000 deaths between now and April 1.“Mass scale-up of vaccination in 2021 means we have a path back to normal life, but there are still a few rough months ahead,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, IHME director. “We must be vigilant in protecting ourselves at least through April, when, as our projections indicate, vaccines will begin to have an impact.”In the meantime, Murray says universal mask wearing and social distancing will save more lives than a potential vaccine in the next four months.“Especially in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s crucial for governments to impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks. Where the winter surge is driving spikes in infections, there will be many people who can still become infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully rolled out,” said Murray.To see the IHME’s state-by-state projections for deaths, hospitalizations and cases, clickhere. 2790

The U.S. reached another bleak milestone in the COVID-19 pandemic Wednesday, as Johns Hopkins University reports that 150,000 Americans have now died of the virus.By comparison, about 116,000 Americans died in World War I, according to Encyclopedia Britannica All recorded U.S. deaths have come in the span of just under six months.The U.S. continues to lead the world in deaths linked to the coronavirus. Brazil, with a death toll of about 88,000, is currently the only other country with more than 50,000 deaths.The U.S. currently has more than 4.3 million confirmed cases of the virus, also the most among all world nations.In recent days, the U.S. has seen daily confirmed cases drop slightly, following several consecutive days of near-record case increases. The spread of the virus in hotspots like Arizona, Florida and Texas appears to be slowing.However, Dr. Anthony Fauci — the nation's top expert on infectious diseases — says he is concerned that hotspots could begin moving to Midwest states. Cases are beginning to tick up in places like Missouri, Nebraska and Colorado. 1091

The sports complex sheltering thousands of Central American migrants in this Mexican border city is well above its capacity, and more migrants are expected to arrive in the coming days.More than 5,800 migrants have taken shelter in the Benito Juarez Sports Complex, according to Mexico's Social Development Secretariat.That's at least three times above the facility's capacity, said Rodolfo Olimpo, a representative from Baja California state's Special Committee on Migration Issues.State and municipal officials are looking to open another shelter, Olimpo said, but they haven't found any local business or space willing to rent out their facilities for the migrants.CNN crews that visited the Benito Juarez shelter found squalid conditions, including open sewage drains. Many people appeared restless and nervous.Inside the sports complex, which has become the main facility sheltering migrants in Tijuana, migrants wait for hours in long lines for food. Tents cover sports fields and spill outside the facility's gates.Many migrants say they're waiting for the chance to seek asylum in the United States. Given the massive backlog at the nearby port of entry, it could be weeks before they have a chance to cross the border and begin to make their case.Meanwhile, the Mexican Red Cross has been providing medical assistance for migrants in the shelter. The Mexican navy has set up two small kitchens nearby the shelter, Olimpo said, and the federal government has installed two water plants.But Amnesty International said on Monday the shelter doesn't have enough resources for migrants housed there, describing conditions as "unsanitary.""Mexican federal, state and municipal officials separately confirmed to Amnesty International that the temporary shelter did not have sufficient food, water and health services, and that respiratory illnesses were spreading among those staying there," Amnesty said.Tijuana's mayor has described the situation as a crisis and called for humanitarian help.The growing number of migrants in Tijuana, a city of about 2 million people just south of California, is "a big problem" that "we are not capable of solving," Mayor Juan Manuel Gastélum told CNN.The Mexican federal government -- with a new president due to be installed Saturday -- or the United Nations must step in, the mayor said, to "give us shelter, give them food, water, medicines, everything that a person needs to be dignified and have a place where they can stay dignified." 2488

The two Los Angeles County Sheriff's Deputies who were shot in an ambush-style attack on Saturday are out of surgery and expected to survive their injuries, according to reports from ABC News, CNN and The Washington Post.Alex Villanueva, the LA County Sheriff, told CNN Sunday night that it looked like the two injured officers would be able to recover from their injuries, but the long-term impacts on their health are currenlty unknown."We'll see what the long-term impact is. We don't know that yet, but they survived the worst," Villanueva reportedly said during a community dialogue event, according to CNN.A suspect ambushed the two officers as they sat in a police car near a Compton metro station on Saturday night. Surveillance video posted by the department on Twitter shows a man walk up to the passenger side of the patrol car, raise a gun to the window and open fire. The deputies were able to radio for help as the suspect ran away.The two injured deputies, a 31-year-old woman and a mother and a 24-year-old man, were relative newcomers in the department, having been on the job for 14 months.According to ABC News, officials are offering a 0,000 reward for information that could lead to the suspect's arrest.Politicians widely condemned the shooting. On Sunday morning, President Donald Trump called for a "fast trial death penalty for the killer" if the deputies were to succumb to their injuries."Only way to stop this!" Trump added. 1463

The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have detained a US citizen who had been fighting with ISIS in Syria, a US military official told CNN Thursday.The official added that it appeared that the American citizen surrendered to Kurdish elements of the Syrian Democratic Forces.A spokesperson for the US-led coalition fighting ISIS would not confirm that a US citizen was in the custody of the SDF, referring questions to the US State Department."We have seen those same reports and the SDF as our partner has taken an oath to make sure that any fighters that they capture that they maintain them and bring them to the proper authorities. In this case the proper authorities would be the equivalent of the department of state in the country," Col. Ryan Dillon told reporters at the Pentagon via a video conference from Baghdad."If this was a US citizen it would be the Department of State to find out the updates on that particular person," Dillon added.A State Department official told CNN that the department was aware of the reports but said that they "have no information to share at this time."The Justice Department and the FBI also declined to comment.The Daily Beast was first to report that a US citizen had been detained by the SDF.This isn't the first US citizen fighting for ISIS to be detained by US allies in the region. In March 2016 a US citizen was captured in Iraq by US-backed Kurdish Peshmerga forces.The number of US citizens traveling to Iraq and Syria to join ISIS is thought to be much smaller than other countries and regions such as Western Europe and coalition officials have noted that far fewer foreign fighters have joined ISIS in recent months as the terror group suffers set-backs on the battle field.ISIS' recent defeats have also caused an increase in the number of fighters surrendering to the SDF with Dillon telling reporters that five ISIS fighters, including a local commander, had surrendered this week alone.The-CNN-Wire 1966

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