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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — After the polls close on Election Night, ABC News and the other major networks will start projecting winners and “calling” races, in some cases well before the official vote counts are finalized.They’ll do it by relying on data from a New Jersey-based company called Edison Research.Edison provides exit polls, survey data, and vote counts for ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN. The company has provided data for this group of networks, known as the National Election Pool, since 2004.“We know what we're doing is really, really important,” said the company’s president Larry Rosin.In certain races, networks will project a winner shortly after the polls close, sometimes before state election officials report any official vote totals. Such a projection is nicknamed an “insta-call” in the news business.Networks only make insta-calls in races where Edison’s exit polls and telephone surveys in the days leading up to the election show a decisive winner, Rosin said.ABC News only issues a projection when statistical models overseen by a team of mathematicians and elections experts show a winner with 99.5 percent confidence.Each network has its own team of experts that crunch Edison’s numbers. Fox News makes projections based on data provided by the Associated Press.When a race is close, the network decision teams turn to more complicated math.“It’s a matter of looking at that historical vote all the way down to the precinct or county level and comparing how the vote is coming in, in that state up to that point,” said Rosin.On Election Night, Edison has thousands of employees fanned out in virtually every county across the nation, monitoring the vote count as it comes in and manually reporting the totals when necessary. There are other employees whose job is to check the numbers for accuracy.Edison’s data helps networks understand how preliminary vote totals compare to the way regions voted in the past, which is an important metric in an election forecast.“If every precinct was just a little bit more Republican than it had been four years ago, you have a good sense that all the other precincts that are similar will likely be a little more Republican, and the Republican will do a little better than four years ago,” Rosin said as an example.Using those kinds of trends, the networks then forecast how many ballots are still left to be counted, and what kind of ballots those are -- either in-person early votes, in-person votes on Election Day, or mail-in votes.At that point it comes down to a formula, comparing the known reported votes to the outstanding votes a candidate is likely to gain.“It’s a very high pressure project, but I’m proud to say that no network has made an incorrect call since the 2004 cycle,” which was Edison’s first year providing election data to the networks, Rosin said.The company started doing this after the debacle in 2000, when networks incorrectly called the race in Florida between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Rosin said a lot of things have changed since then.“The pressure to make calls correctly really superseded the pressure to call quickly,” he said.This year could be a challenging one to forecast, Rosin said, with so many more mail-in ballots because of the pandemic. Mail-in ballots take longer to process because election workers have to compare the signature on the mail-in ballot against the signature a voter has on file.For that reason, Rosin said it may take a while for the networks to call races in certain key battleground states that start their counting process late, like Pennsylvania and Michigan. 3594

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - A stolen trailer belonging to a local Boy Scout troop has been recovered, but nearly all of the inventory is gone.Some wooden poles and some cooking supplies are what they found in a previously stuffed trailer. Nearly 50 scouts strong, Boy Scout Troop 11 out of University City was prepping for a camping trip when the packed trailer recently disappeared from a church parking lot.  The trailer contained all of the troop's camping equipment - some ,000 worth - from tents and stoves to cooking equipment, used for the camping trips and cooking events for homeless shelters. The theft puts those excursions in jeopardy.RELATED: Thieves leave Chula Vista Boy Scout troop heartbroken"It's just devastating because the equipment is so important to us ... We try to put smiles on other people's faces. It's just challenging because a lot of scouts come to our troop to camp and do more things, but we can't do that without our equipment," said Roman Greer, one of the scouts in Troop 11.On Monday night, the trailer was found along a road in the Mission Bay area. Greer is happy to have the trailer back, but disappointed that the thief looked inside and then decided to raid it."To have Boy Scout insignias over the equipment, that's entirely terrible because you're knowingly taking away from kids and their experiences growing up," said Greer.A Gofundme campaign has been set up to help the troop repurchase the equipment. 1480

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- An exclusive ABC 10News/San Diego Union-Tribune poll shows many City of San Diego voters are still undecided on some important races this November.The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA from Aug. 28-31, five weeks before mail-in voting begins.According to the poll, one of the closest races is for San Diego mayor, as both Democratic candidates -- City Councilwoman Barbara Bry and Assemblyman Todd Gloria -- are within a few percentage points of each other.The poll shows Bry ahead of Gloria 37 percent to 34 percent, with 29 percent undecided.Political analyst Kyra Greene told ABC 10News, “At this point in an election cycle, you would fully expect there would be more differentiation between the two candidates, but I think it’s a tough year because campaigns aren’t able to get out, talk to voters, so there are just a lot more people who are undecided.”Gloria’s campaign representatives said of the poll: “Our campaign has completed two polls recently and both show Todd with a double-digit lead. We are confident in their accuracy and will continue to run a campaign that focuses on finding solutions to the big issues facing San Diego."Bry’s campaign responded: “These results illustrate the dramatic shift in momentum since the March primary, when Assemblyman Gloria received 41 percent of the vote compared to Councilmember Bry's 23 percent.”In the race for San Diego City Attorney, the latest poll shows at least half of San Diego voters are undecided, but incumbent Mara Elliott leads challenger Cory Briggs by 10 percent.Several key ballot measures are set to be decided on Nov. 3, including Measure E and Measure B.Measure E would change the existing height limit on buildings in San Diego’s Midway District.The latest poll numbers are close -- 31 percent in favor of the measure -- but Greene said past voter trends could be an indicator.“The most common thing if people are not sure is they vote against the measure, which makes sense. They assume why change something if I’m not entirely sure what it’s about?” Greene said.Measure B would create an independent citizen’s review board to review actions taken by police.According to the poll, voters are showing clear support for the ballot measure, with 55 percent in favor.Greene said, “In part, it’s because it appeals to people across the spectrum of opinions about police accountability.”Ultimately, Greene said she believes results might not be completely clear on Election Day.“Given that people will be mailing in their ballot, we will have even more uncertainty on election night about which races and more questions about how soon they will be decided,” Greene said. 2666

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Active military members are saying thank you to those who have served by delivering food to veterans in honor of Veterans Day.The servicemen and women partnered with Meals on Wheels to deliver the food Monday.Meals on Wheels serves about 500 veterans a day. Many of them can't leave their homes. Local Navy members say they decided to help deliver the items to say thank you for their service. "It's everyone's responsibility to take care of the previous generations," says Petty Officer First Class Ryian Harris. RELATED: Chula Vista school dedicates library to former teacher and WWII veteranThe first delivery was made to 91-year-old Army Veteran Robert Keller. He served in World War II and was then shipped to Korea. He says it's nice to have the active service members think of him this Veteran's Day. "It's special, very special," says Keller. Meals on Wheels serves about 1,400 seniors every day, with volunteers driving about 116 routes. Meals on Wheels says it has opened its program to disabled vets of all ages. 1051

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - After paying off over 3,000 in debt, a San Diego family is packing up and leaving California. 10News first began following Josh and Amanda Williams' journey when they had just ,000 of debt left to pay off. Amanda documents their journey on Instagram and has since gained a following of over 70,000 people. "Before I got a budget I would basically just go to a store and see something I wanted and swipe, buy it, and then not really know how much money I had in my account. So I was living kind of in a crisis mode," said Amanda. While the couple could reach their retirement goals in San Diego, they want to do it faster.RELATED: San Diego woman climbs out of 3,000 debt holeSo they made a drastic decision to move to Austin, Texas, where their company has another office where they can work while keeping their California salaries. Looking at a comparison cost calculator, the couple will save in almost every area. 953