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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — After the polls close on Election Night, ABC News and the other major networks will start projecting winners and “calling” races, in some cases well before the official vote counts are finalized.They’ll do it by relying on data from a New Jersey-based company called Edison Research.Edison provides exit polls, survey data, and vote counts for ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN. The company has provided data for this group of networks, known as the National Election Pool, since 2004.“We know what we're doing is really, really important,” said the company’s president Larry Rosin.In certain races, networks will project a winner shortly after the polls close, sometimes before state election officials report any official vote totals. Such a projection is nicknamed an “insta-call” in the news business.Networks only make insta-calls in races where Edison’s exit polls and telephone surveys in the days leading up to the election show a decisive winner, Rosin said.ABC News only issues a projection when statistical models overseen by a team of mathematicians and elections experts show a winner with 99.5 percent confidence.Each network has its own team of experts that crunch Edison’s numbers. Fox News makes projections based on data provided by the Associated Press.When a race is close, the network decision teams turn to more complicated math.“It’s a matter of looking at that historical vote all the way down to the precinct or county level and comparing how the vote is coming in, in that state up to that point,” said Rosin.On Election Night, Edison has thousands of employees fanned out in virtually every county across the nation, monitoring the vote count as it comes in and manually reporting the totals when necessary. There are other employees whose job is to check the numbers for accuracy.Edison’s data helps networks understand how preliminary vote totals compare to the way regions voted in the past, which is an important metric in an election forecast.“If every precinct was just a little bit more Republican than it had been four years ago, you have a good sense that all the other precincts that are similar will likely be a little more Republican, and the Republican will do a little better than four years ago,” Rosin said as an example.Using those kinds of trends, the networks then forecast how many ballots are still left to be counted, and what kind of ballots those are -- either in-person early votes, in-person votes on Election Day, or mail-in votes.At that point it comes down to a formula, comparing the known reported votes to the outstanding votes a candidate is likely to gain.“It’s a very high pressure project, but I’m proud to say that no network has made an incorrect call since the 2004 cycle,” which was Edison’s first year providing election data to the networks, Rosin said.The company started doing this after the debacle in 2000, when networks incorrectly called the race in Florida between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Rosin said a lot of things have changed since then.“The pressure to make calls correctly really superseded the pressure to call quickly,” he said.This year could be a challenging one to forecast, Rosin said, with so many more mail-in ballots because of the pandemic. Mail-in ballots take longer to process because election workers have to compare the signature on the mail-in ballot against the signature a voter has on file.For that reason, Rosin said it may take a while for the networks to call races in certain key battleground states that start their counting process late, like Pennsylvania and Michigan. 3594

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - After 14 months on the job, Gordon Walker, the CEO of the Regional Task Force on the Homeless is taking a six month leave to help open a temple for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Rome, Italy.Walker was hired in June of 2017 after successfully reducing the homeless population in Utah by 91%.“We can do the exact same thing here,” he told 10News. “The chronic homeless problem here in San Diego is not much larger that it was in Utah.”He took over the RTFH just after it had been consolidated with several other agencies.One of his first big projects was overhauling an outdated software system that is used by many different agencies that interact with the homeless.Expected to be launched in December, he says the new program will allow for easier and more streamlined data collection.It’s an important change because they can’t fight a problem when they don’t know exactly what it consists of.“We had a hard time answering some very basic questions, like ‘what do we actually need?’ “For this purpose, one of the task force’s yearly projects is executing a ‘point-in-time’ count of homeless people across the county.When the numbers were released this year, however, they were met with criticism.“You cant just not count 1000 to 2000 people just because you haven’t done your due diligence when we’ve counted them every year,” said Michael McConnell, a homeless advocate and former member of the RTFH.He’s referring to the homeless population that live in vehicles.Because they were not included in the 2018 count of unsheltered homeless, the number appeared to decline from the previous year.Walker still defends their decision, saying “here in San Diego there was a great deal of effort of counting people in vehicles without proving or showing that there was anyone living in the vehicle.”But he said they plan on changing that next year by performing outreach beforehand, so when they encounter vehicles while doing the count they know who lives inside them.“We are going to do more interviewing so we know the people better,” he said.Whether or not he will be back to see that through remains to be seen. He told 10News he plans to spend no more that six months in Italy.“My goal is to come back here, even if it’s not as CEO” he said. “We’re doing some great things.”On Thursday, the board that oversees the RTFH will vote to confirm Tamera Kohler as acting CEO.She worked with Walker in Utah and currently serves as the COO.Walker said he leaves for Italy on Friday. 2522

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - After a year of saving, an 11-year-old San Carlos girl is finally spending all her money -- on other kids.During last year's holiday season, even before Sienna Ince opened her gifts, a question popped into her mind."Why do I get so many gifts when there are others who don't get any, and their parents just have to pay bills," said Sienna.So Sienna decided to use her birthday money and money from chores, and bought worth of gifts, with many of them going to Toys For Tots."She loaded everything onto the conveyor built at the checkout stand and paid for it ... It made me very proud of her. Love to take credit it, but it was all her," said Sienna's mother, Nichel Ince.This year, amid the pandemic, Sienna decided to step up her game. Her parents' jobs have been impacted, but not as much as for many others."I know that other people can't get gifts because parents are losing their jobs in this hard time. They can't get a lot of things. I just want to make sure everyone during this time can get gifts," said Sienna.Sienna set up lemonade stands and cooked up bake sales, and set aside the money she received from her birthday and chores. In the end, she saved about 0. Her father then made an appeal on the Nextdoor app for families, and kids in need -- of something under the tree."I want them to feel happy knowing that they're going to get gifts, and they're going to wake up and be happy with their gifts," said Sienna.Sienna has finished her shopping, which included more than 20 gifts. She just started with the wrapping, and she's issuing a challenge to kids who aren't in need."Maybe you can ask your parents to not give you one of your gifts on your list, and give something to other people ... I just want other people to see this and think that you can also make a difference," said Sienna.Sienna's parents have agreed to help her if more families come forward in need of gifts. If know of any families, you can email us Tips@10news.com.Sienna' parents have also started a Gofundme campaign to help buy and deliver more holiday gifts. 2085

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - A San Diego public figure is speaking out after being hit three times by distracted drivers over 8 years.Monica Zech is the Public Information Officer for the City of El Cajon. Her passion is public safety, specifically behind the wheel. She started as a Traffic Reporter in 1984 and had a 30-year career in broadcasting. She immediately found out, through reporting on first responders, how many crashes were preventable. "When my father was hit about eight years after that, when I started lecturing, then the DUI issue became prevalent," Zech said her father was walking across the street in a marked cross-walk when a drunk driver hit him in 1992.August 29th, 2011 a distracted driver ran a red light slamming into her. The crash was so violent surgeons told her she should've been paralyzed, "it was shocking to hear that. They said is this your MRI? Are you sure? I said I'm sure that's my MRI. They said well we're surprised you're sitting here, you should be paralyzed. We have patients with the same MRI and they're in a wheelchair."She now has a titanium plate that straightens her spine and protects her in case she is in a future crash.The next crash was in traffic on I-5, February of 2017. "I kept noticed his head bobbing down, looking down, I realized he was on his cell phone and wham! He hits me from behind," she said.Tuesday she was hit from behind again. This time she says she stopped at a red light about to turn onto I-8 Eastbound from La Mesa Boulevard. She said the other driver's airbags deployed, she pulled over and was extremely apologetic, saying "I was looking at my cellphone, I do Door Dash, and I'm so sorry, I'm so sorry." 10News has reached out to DoorDash for a comment and have not heard back.An excuse more common with a startling statistic from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. 1860

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - A South Bay high school was placed on lockdown while police searched a vehicle outside the campus.San Diego Police placed Southwest High School under lockdown while officers searched a vehicle they stopped on Hollister Street, just outside campus.Police said the traffic stop was a result of someone reporting they saw a gun. The suspected vehicle was located and pulled over.Southwest High was placed on lockdown as a precaution and police said the campus wasn't being threatened - the traffic stop just happened to occur outside the school property.Police found a BB gun inside the vehicle. No shots were fired and no one was injured.The lockdown was later lifted.Police said they encourage anyone who thinks they see a weapon to report it to authorities. 799