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BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Decoupling from the world, and the economic downturn much of it is experiencing, has proven impossible for China. But its resilience is receiving more recognition, with many leading financial institutions upgrading their 2009 growth forecasts since mid-April. The adjustments for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranging from 0.5 to 2.3 percentage points, were based on signs of a turnaround in the first quarter. These indicators included stronger-than-expected real GDP growth, recovering property investment, a pick-up in power consumption and a surge in bank lending. Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expected China's GDP to grow 7.2 percent in the second quarter and 8 percent this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its projection from 6 percent to 8.3 percent, the most optimistic forecast so far. Other forecasts include UBS, which raised its estimate by 0.5 point to 7 percent and CLSA Asia-Pacific, which lifted its outlook by 1.5 point to 7 percent. China's policymakers can take heart from these forecasts. Every upward revision, big or small, given the global economic slowdown, might point to a better chance for the nation to achieve its 8-percent growth target. That level of growth is considered necessary to raise living standards while maintaining social stability. But there's still the question of whether rapid growth is sustainable. Some analysts believe it isn't unless China can rebalance its economy and achieve higher efficiency, lower environmental costs and a more reasonable balance among investment, trade and consumption. QUANTITY OR QUALITY? In an interview with Xinhua, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, urged Chinese authorities to get more serious about stimulating private consumption because the global economy remains "pretty weak" and might only achieve a weak recovery. "China has responded to the crisis the way it has always responded to global problems. That is, using proactive fiscal stimulus mainly in the infrastructure area to provide temporary support in the downturn until the global economy comes back. It worked in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2000-2001 mild recession. But this is a different sort of problem," said Roach. "Once the stimulus wears off and if there is no follow-through, the Chinese economy will weaken again. I don't think exports will recover in the weak global economy." Domestic economists voice similar worries, saying that the speed of growth doesn't matter as much as the quality. Liu Shangxi, deputy dean of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the Ministry of Finance, said that the 6.1-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter had been "fairly good" for China. But, he said, "sometimes, it's worth slowing down a bit to have the economy move more stably." Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the chief planning agency. said that the government's annual growth target had become mostly symbolic. For five years in a row, the target was 8 percent, and for five years in a row, the growth rate overshot the target. Wang said the government had faced a dilemma: a cut in the target might undermine public confidence while a rise might tempt local governments to over-invest to meet a high growth target. The turnaround signs mostly reflected the impact of the 4-trillion-yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package. Meanwhile, retail sales still trailed investment in contributing to growth. Local economists warned that the economy remained unbalanced and vulnerable. "Historical records show that adjustments in the Chinese economy would take two to three years, on average. Seven months have passed since the impact of the global financial crisis began to tell on the local economy. "With a turnaround in sight, recovery might come earlier than expected but there are still risks of a further slowdown," Chen Dongqi, deputy chief of the Macro-Economic Research Institute under the NDRC, told a business development forum in Guangdong in late April. BUYING CURE It's widely accepted among economists that China should boost domestic private consumption by leading individuals to buy more and save less. The key question is: how? "Two big programs" Roach advocates call for doubling the investment in social security immediately to 150 billion U.S. dollars and establishing a goal of raising consumption as a share of the economy from 36 percent to 50 percent within five years. "What I think is missing here is the social safety net, social security pension and unemployment insurance. Because of the absence of the safety net, China has seen a high level of precautionary saving," he said. Roach suggested that China develop a private pension system in particular so total employee compensation could rise in tandem with productivity. "Chinese companies need to partner with their workers and provide medical care [and] retirement investing for their workforce. Chinese workers' total pay package should have both wages and benefits," he said. Liu agreed that the primary task in expanding consumption was to raise incomes. "Securing the legitimate interests of workers is particularly significant when the economy slumps. It would be like drinking poison to quench one's thirst if businesses sought to expand corporate earnings at the cost of workers' pay and benefits," he said. Low labor costs and massive capacity have propped up China's prosperity over the past decades. But the proportion of wages to national income has been on a long decline since the 1990s. Between 2002 and 2006 alone, economists estimate the figure dropped from 62.1 percent to 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell from 43.6 percent to 38.9 percent. "A more meaningful index to judge the sustainability of China's economic growth would be the proportion of wages to national income," Liu said. "If this ratio did not rise, people would remain poor, and thus expanding consumption would be empty talk." Chinese are far from wealthy. Only 4 percent of the workforce, and just 10 percent of the urban workforce, earn more than 2,000 yuan a month, the threshold for individual income tax. As Chinese residents hold 2.43 trillion yuan in aggregate deposits, economists say one immediate way to boost consumption would be to stabilize spending on staple property -- including housing and automobiles -- and support tourism and cultural activities. "People spend much of their money on housing and food. The government should encourage people to entertain themselves more," Wang said. CHINA 'NO LOCOMOTIVE' Although China might be the first major economy to recover from the downturn, economists disagree on when China will return to sustained high growth. Morgan Stanley, for example, has forecast a firm recovery by mid-year, but said sustainable growth through 2010 would still hinge on what happens in other countries. "China will be stronger. But will that strength be enough to allow others to follow in its footsteps? I don't think so," said Roach. "Most of China's resilience comes from infrastructure building, roads, property consumption ... [this] won't have an impact on the United States and Europe. This resilience is only temporary while its stimulus is local rather than global." Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also warned in late April during World Bank-IMF meetings in Washington that the rebound in China's economy had to be consolidated. He said conditions in China would permit rapid economic development again, once macroeconomic policies such as the stimulus plan took effect. Challenging internal and external conditions, he said, included continuously shrinking external demand, a relatively large decline in exports, overcapacity in some industries, falling government revenue and lingering employment pressure. As China emerges from the shadow of the downturn, together with many of its Western partners, the world is closely watching the socialist market economy that it is still trying to develop. It was interesting to see that there was much "the ideologically-constrained West" could learn from China, just as there was much China could learn from the West, said Roach. "China has gone slow in many areas, especially in the opening up of its financial market. But China made the right choice," he said. "Focusing on stability is a huge plus for China. But the nation must be vigilant in its financial policies, especially monetary and regulatory policies, and not allow asset bubbles and financial innovations it doesn't understand," said Roach.
BEIJING, May 14 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang on Thursday met with President of the Socialist International(SI) George Papandreou on promoting the world's sustainable development. Papandreou was leading a 15-member delegation to Beijing for a sustainable growth seminar co-sponsored by the Communist Party of China(CPC) and the SI. Li, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, reviewed the increasing exchanges since the CPC and the SI started their exchanges in 1982. "Jointly holding a seminar on sustainable growth signifies a positive step for both sides to deepen strategic dialogue," Li said. The seminar, scheduled for Friday, will address how to work together to deal with climate change and other environmental challenges. Li briefed Papandreou on the country's efforts to tackle the international financial crisis and seek sustainable development. Li said the CPC valued the ties with the SI and its member parties and called for increased cooperation and deeper dialogue. Papandreou said the Socialist International would like to seek more dialogue and cooperation with the CPC to promote sustainable development worldwide. Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang (R, front) meets with a 15-member delegation headed by President of the Socialist International (SI) George Papandreou who are here in Beijing for a sustainable growth seminar co-sponsored by the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the SI, in Beijing, China, May 14, 2009

MOSCOW, May 29 (Xinhua) -- Senior representatives on security issues from the BRIC countries met in Moscow on Friday ahead of an upcoming summit on relations and cooperation within the bloc. Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo briefly commented on the current international situation and called for enhanced cooperation from the BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia, India and China - in dealing with major global and regional issues. Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo attends a meeting of the security representatives of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) in Moscow, Russia, May 29, 2009.Dai said the international financial crisis has had an unprecedented worldwide impact. He said the upheaval has brought about a new round of complex adjustments in international relations and the world order. All nations, Dai said, desire to reform the current international economic and financial system, safeguard world peace and stability, and jointly deal with global issues. Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo listens during a meeting of the security representatives of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) in Moscow, Russia, May 29, 2009.The state councilor suggested that in the face of mounting common threats and challenges, developed and emerging economies should seriously consider ways of promoting international order and mechanism conducive to common interests, pushing for dialogues and cooperation favorable for sustainable development, and working together to build a harmonious world of long lasting peace and common prosperity. The BRIC countries, Dai said, should work together to enlarge their consensus, exchange views on major international and regional issues of common concern, strengthen coordination and cooperation, and facilitate the settlement of problems. In particular, Dai said, the countries should reinforce their cooperation in dealing with the economic downturn, enhance coordination on macro-economic policies, jointly oppose protectionism in any form, speed up the reform of the international financial system, and advance the creation of an international cooperation mechanism conforming to globalization and multipolarization. The BRIC summit will be held in June in Yekaterinburg, Russia.
ROME, July 6 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao held talks with Italian President Giorgio Napolitano on Monday, calling for a boost to ties between the two countries. During the talks, Hu said Chinese-Italian relations have witnessed healthy and stable expansion over the past 39 years since the two countries established diplomatic relations. In 2004, the two countries agreed to establish an all-around strategic partnership, unveiling a new page for Chinese-Italian friendly cooperation, Hu said. As next year will mark the 40th anniversary of the forging of bilateral diplomatic relations, China is willing to join hands with Italy to lift bilateral ties to a higher level, Hu said. Chinese President Hu Jintao (L) shakes hands with Italian President Giorgio Napolitano prior to their talks in Rome, capital of Italy, July 6, 2009. According to a press release issued by the Chinese delegation, Napolitano agreed with Hu, saying cooperation between Italy and China has seen smooth expansion in a wide range of fields. Napolitano said Italy is willing to further increase its economic cooperation and trade with China, exert every effort to host the "Chinese Culture Year" in Italy and push forward the development of bilateral ties at large. In order to boost the ties, the Chinese president offered a five-point proposal, according to the press release. Firstly, Hu said the two countries should increase communications, exchanges and mutual visits between high-level leaders. Hu proposed that both sides host various events to mark the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, adding that much attention should be attached to the "Chinese Culture Year" next year in Italy. Secondly, Hu said the two sides should enhance political mutual trust and understand each other's major concerns. The Taiwan and Tibet issues are the key concerns of the Chinese side, Hu said, urging Italy to understand China's concerns and offer support. Hu also said he believed Italy would continue to exert its influence within the European Union to boost the EU-China ties at large. Thirdly, Hu urged both sides to expand substantial cooperation on various fields such as trade, investment, science and technology, environment protection, medicine and tourism. Fourthly, the Chinese president said both sides should increase people-to-people communications and cultural exchanges in order to boost their bilateral friendship. Finally, Hu urged both sides to conduct more cooperation and communications in international organizations and on multi-national occasions. Hu said both countries could enhance dialogue and coordination on various major international issues such as the global financial crisis, reform of the UN Security Council, climate change, environment protection and sustainable development. Napolitano, on his part, praised China for its important role in the international arena as well as in addressing major global challenges. He said he appreciates China's role in the G20 summit, the G8 + 5 summit and active participation in UN peacekeeping actions. He also said the Italian side spoke highly of the measures China has taken to tackle the global financial crisis and economic downturn. He noted that China's participation is a must for the international community in its move to tackle the crisis, reform the international financial system and realize sustainable development. On the EU-China relations, Napolitano said Italy would continue to play an active role in boosting the ties. The president also reiterated Italy's adherence to the one-China policy. According to the press release, Hu also briefed his Italian counterpart on the latest social and economic developments in China. The two leaders held the talks at the Quirinal Palace, and Napolitano hosted a grand welcoming ceremony in honor of Hu prior to the talks. Hu arrived in Rome earlier on Sunday for a state visit at the invitation of Napolitano. Hu was also to attend the summit of the Group of Eight and major developing countries later this week in the central Italian city of L'Aquila. This is the sixth time that the Chinese president has attended the G8 outreach session. The previous one took place in the northern Japanese resort of Toyako last July. The G8, an informal forum of leading industrialized nations, includes Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Japan, the United States, Canada and Russia.
URUMQI, July 10 (Xinhua) -- China's top leadership has vowed to punish those responsible for Sunday's riot in the northwestern Xinjiang region in accordance with the law and to educate those taking part in it after being deceived by separatists. Zhou Yongkang, a member of the Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Political Bureau, said in his tour of the autonomous region on Friday that all available efforts should be mobilized to "win the tough war of maintaining Xinjiang's stability." The Party's top official in charge of law enforcement stressed that efforts should be made to "resolutely implement" the spirit of the Political Bureau meeting on Wednesday night, and use "tough measures" to ensure stability. President Hu Jintao on Wednesday night convened a meeting of the Standing Committee of the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau to discuss the deadly Xinjiang riot. Zhou Yongkang (C), member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, visits Aygul, an injured woman of minority group, at a military hospital in Urumchi, capital of northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, July 9, 2009. Zhou started an inspection tour in Xinjiang on Thursday. The nine Political Bureau Standing Committee members, headed by CPC Central Committee General Secretary Hu, agreed that stability in Xinjiang was the "most important and pressing task," and vowed "severe punishment" of culprits in accordance with the law. At least 156 people were killed and more than 1,000 injured in the riot on Sunday in Urumqi, capital city of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Hu cut short his trip to Europe and skipped the G8 meeting due to the situation in Xinjiang. He returned to Beijing Wednesday afternoon. The meeting said the government would "firmly crack down on serious crimes, including assaults, vandalism, looting and arson." The Standing Committee ordered authorities to "isolate and crack down on the tiny few" and "unify and educate the majority of masses." "Instigators, organizers, culprits and violent criminals in the unrest shall be severely punished in accordance with the law," it said. "Those taking part in the riot due to provocation and deceit by separatists, should be given education." Hu's stance in handling the riot was echoed by Zhou, one of the nine Political Bureau Standing Committee members, who arrived in the region Thursday afternoon. Zhou said Thursday that the government and the Party would crack down hard on violence, severely punish the outlaws in accordance with the law, so as to protect the lives and property of people of all ethnic groups, safeguard ethnic unity and restore normal social order in the region as soon as possible. The country's top police officer Meng Jianzhu was the first senior official from the central government to arrive in the Xinjiang region. When visiting residents injured by the rioters and family members of those victims in Urumqi on Wednesday, the state councilor and public security minister urged "no leniency in the punishment of thugs who took part in the Urumqi riot". Meng said leading rioters should be punished "with the utmost severity" and those taking part in the riot, who were provoked and cheated by separatists, should be given persuasion and education. "All the thugs in the riot should be severely punished in accordance with law, otherwise we will let the victims and their relatives down," Meng repeated his comment on Thursday while visiting residents in Urumqi and a funeral parlor to mourn the Armed Police and other victims of the riot. Senior Chinese leader He Guoqiang also stressed social harmony and stability on Wednesday. He, a member of the Standing Committee of the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau, made the remarks during a two-day visit to Gansu Province, which neighbors Xinjiang. "The recent violence in Urumqi... has again alerted us to the importance of social stability. It is our top priority," he said. He urged Party and government departments at all levels to crack down on the acts of sabotage by hostile forces both at home and abroad, in order to ensure national and ethnic unity and social stability. The Party's top publicity official Li Changchun on Wednesday called for redoubled efforts to improve education on patriotism and ethnic unity, to create a favorable atmosphere for the celebration of the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. Li, also one of the nine Political Bureau Standing Committee members, made the remarks during a three-day visit to the northwestern province of Qinghai, adjacent to Xinjiang. "In regions inhabited by ethnic minorities, patriotic education must be combined with education on ethnic unity," he said, to let the public understand that "ethnic unity comes with blessings while disunity with woes".
来源:资阳报