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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

While many hair salon and gym owners across the country understood why they had to shut down during the pandemic, those closures created a financial hardship. A hardship that some are finding difficult to overcome."Economically, it's been devastating to us. We opened up our gym three years ago and sort of like a little miracle. We took over an existing gym that was probably not fitting the community. We came in there with our life savings, we opened up this beautiful gym and we were becoming very successful," said John Pena, the owner of GYM NYC in New York City.Pena says their business was shut down for nearly six months. Now, he's finally excited to reopen. Pena applied for and received money from the Paycheck Protection Program but it only did so much. "There is no income coming in from the business, obviously. The extra 0 on the unemployment has really been a big help but that’s going away. I’ve been able to pay my bills and that's it," said Pena. Pena and other gym owners in New York are hoping for more government help for small businesses to help them get back on their feet."In general, I think there is a set of overhead expenses that I’m sure owners in any industry would tell you play a huge factor. Rent, utilities, payroll, insurance etc., and those are fixed costs that you sort of wonder whether they’ll be any concessions made," said Elvira Yambot, COO of Tone House.In Tennessee, the Shelby County Commission is offering small brick and mortar businesses ,000 each as part of the Beautiful Comeback Grant. "It applies to any business that is in the personal care contact industry. So right off the bat you'd think of barber shops, beauty salons, nail salons but you also think about people who work in the massage industry, as well," said Shelby County Commissioner Mickell Lowery.Gyms also qualify, along with any other business where close physical contact with clients is required."Even when they’re allowed to open they still have to incur additional costs because now they have to open under certain stipulations. You have to have either have PPE which we all have to have now, you have to have that, that's a cost you might have to have, disposable capes and that nature, maybe plexiglass between you and a client, things of that nature depending what type of work you’re doing," said Lowery. Commissioner Lowery hopes other local governments across the country are also able to give something back to small businesses."If you're going to tell businesses to shut down, you have to give me something back so I don't starve," says Pena. For Pena, he's concerned that not helping businesses reopen could have a devastating economic impact. "The quicker we can get back on our feet, the quicker we can get back and people can start walking around and feeling confident, because not making any money, not being able to feed your family is far worse than this coronavirus," said Pena. 2929

WINTER PARK, Fla. (AP) — Police say a man punched and kicked a 70-year-old man who'd asked him to practice social distancing inside a central Florida gas station. An arrest report says 24-year-old Rovester Ingram wasn't wearing a mask so the older man asked him to back away on Sept. 8. The man then paid for his items and left the store. Police say Ingram followed him outside and began punching and kicking him. The man went back inside. But Ingram followed him and dragged him back out. Police confirmed the incident through witnesses and surveillance video. They arrested Ingram. 591

When is Slow Joe Biden going to criticize the Anarchists, Thugs & Agitators in ANTIFA? When is he going to suggest bringing up the National Guard in BADLY RUN & Crime Infested Democrat Cities & States? Remember, he can’t lose the Crazy Bernie Super Liberal vote!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 31, 2020 334

With a crowd of onlookers gathered around, New York Police officers encircle a woman and her child on the ground.One officer reaches down and begins to pull. The officer yanks harder, and harder, and the woman's cries become louder."You're hurting my son! You're hurting my son!" she yells.A tug of war ensues, and as noise from the horrified crowd builds, an officer brandishes a yellow stun gun and begins to point it around the room, a government welfare office in Brooklyn.The stunning and hectic scene, captured on video and posted to Facebook, ends with the woman in handcuffs escorted from the scene — and her 1-year-old son elsewhere. A family member took custody of the child following the arrest, the NYPD said.The forceful arrest of the unarmed mother at a social services office has caused a significant backlash, particularly from those who saw it as an unnecessarily violent escalation and a symbol of how the poor are treated in America."Being poor is not a crime. The actions of the NYPD in this video are appalling and contemptible," said Letitia James, the Public Advocate for New York City.Facing criticism, the NYPD and the New York City Human Resources Administration are now reviewing that December 7 arrest."Video images of the incident in the 84th precinct are troubling," the NYPD said in a statement, adding that the review will "include examination of all available video of the incident."Corey Johnson, the speaker of the New York City Council, said it was "unacceptable, appalling and heart breaking.""I'd like to understand what transpired and how these officers or the NYPD justifies this. It's hard to watch this video," he said on Twitter.On Facebook, James called for a full investigation into the officers' conduct and said the results should be made public. She also called for the officers involved, including their assigned supervisor, to be assigned to desk duty until an investigation is complete."No mother should have to experience the trauma and humiliation we all witnessed in this video," she said. 2056

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