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A key forecasting model that’s been cited by the White House and state officials now predicts the COVID-19 death toll in the United States will surpass 410,000 by January 1.The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington released its latest forecast Friday, saying the U.S. and other countries in the Northern Hemisphere should prepare for a seasonal rise in COVID-19 cases.COVID-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to an ongoing tally from Johns Hopkins University.“I would call the surge in the winter that we’re forecasting a second wave,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray in a call with reporters Friday.The IHME says COVID-19 has followed seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia and if that correlation continues to hold, northern countries can anticipate more cases in the late fall and winter months.“The worst is yet to come,” warned Murray. “I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern Hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away.”The IHME’s prediction of 410,000 U.S. deaths by Jan. 1 is its most likely scenario, but it also provided a worst-case scenario. If mask usage stays the same and states continue to relax social distancing requirements, the IHME model predicts over 620,000 Americans could die from the virus by the new year.The IHME’s best-case scenario, where mask usage is universal and governments impose social distancing requirements, shows more than 286,000 people dying across the nation by the end of the year.“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” said Murray in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”Globally, the IHME predicts that nearly 770,000 lives could be saved between now and Jan. 1 through proven measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing.Across the world, deaths expected by Jan. 1 total 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more from now until the end of the year, the IHME says. Daily deaths in December could reach as high as 30,000.Under the most likely of IHME’s scenarios, the nations with the highest per capita total deaths would be the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Netherlands, and Spain.The IHME says these five countries will most likely have the highest cumulative death tolls by Jan. 1:India: 659,537U.S.: 410,451Brazil: 174,297Mexico: 138,828Japan: 120,514IHME says its projections are based on an epidemiological model that includes data on cases, deaths, and antibody prevalence, as well as location-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, population density and age structure, and pneumonia seasonality, which shows a strong correlation with the trajectory of COVID-19. 2977

A City of Long Beach flag was stolen and replaced with a Trump campaign flag outside the city’s police department public safety building over the weekend.A padlock was placed on the flagpole by the people responsible to prevent the “Make American Great Again” flag from being removed.The department says because of the construction, access has been limited to primarily construction employees. The flagpoles are only accessible from a small, secured parking lot which houses a construction trailer, police said in a release.Video shared by local media shows the campaign flag alongside the American flag and California State flag. 638

A comedian pretending to be Sen. Bob Menendez for a bit says he got through to the President, who called him back from Air Force One."I am shocked ... I mean we did this as a goof, I'm a comedian," said John Melendez, better known as Stuttering John. "I just could not believe that it took us an hour and a half to get Jared Kushner and Donald Trump on the phone from Air Force One."At the start of the purported call, the voice that sounds like Trump congratulates who he thought was Menendez on his acquittal in a federal corruption case, saying, "You went through a tough, tough situation, and I don't think a very fair situation. But congratulations."The two also discuss the upcoming Supreme Court vacancy, according to the audio on the podcast. The voice that sounds like Trump promises the fake Menendez he'll nominate a new justice in "10 to 14 days.""All they had to ask me is what party affiliation is Sen. Menendez, or what state is he a senator of, and I would not have known. But they didn't ask me any of this," Melendez told CNN.Melendez told CNN that they initially called the White House and were honest about their identity, but the White House said Trump was busy and hung up.So they called again, but this time as "Shawn Moore," a fake assistant to Menendez."I changed my voice to an English accent. I do the worst English accent in the history of English accents. So I said, 'Yeah, this is Shawn Moore, Sen. Menendez's assistant, and we'd like to talk to the President.' They said they'd call me back, and then they called back on cellphone," Melendez recalled.According to audio that aired on Melendez's podcast, Trump called while flying on Air Force One on his way back from his rally in Fargo, North Dakota, on Wednesday night."Donald picks up the phone and I started talking to the President. I never said to Donald that I was Sen. Menendez. I was just talking in my Long Island accent. The thing is, you hear my bad Long Island accent and a voice that Donald has talked to so many times," Melendez said."The President wants to be accessible to members and likes engaging them and wants them to have the opportunity to connect. The downside of that is sometimes the channels are open too widely and mistakes like this happen," a White House official said about the incident.A source said someone in the White House Legislative Affairs Office reached out to Menendez's office Thursday morning about the phone call. The source said the New Jersey Democrat's staffers were very confused and didn't know what it was about. They haven't talked to the White House since the recording came out.Another White House aide also acknowledged the call happened. This aide said White House legislative director Marc Short apparently shot down the call initially. But the aide said senior adviser Jared Kushner "patched the call through anyways.""As someone who has spent my entire career trying to convince Republicans to join me in reforming our nation's broken immigration system, I welcome any opportunity to have a real conversation with the President on how to uphold the American values that have guided our family-based immigration policy for the past century. Tearing children apart from their mothers is not part of our proud history. Thus far, this White House has only sabotaged every good-faith effort to find bipartisan common ground on immigration," Menendez said in a statement. 3413

A Euclid, Ohio man has been indicted on six counts of rape and numerous other charges after police believe he broke into a woman’s apartment and brutally beat and sexually assaulted her over the course of five hours.The victim’s daughter said her mother underwent a second surgery on Tuesday as doctors worked on reconstructing the broken bones in the woman’s face. The emotional wounds, however, will take years to heal — if at all, she said. Archie Leak, 52, has been indicted on six counts of rape, gross sexual imposition, aggravated burglary, aggravated robbery, assault, two counts of kidnapping, petty theft and tampering with evidence in connection with the March 29th incident.The victim’s family said Leak used a crowbar to gain entry into the woman’s apartment on E. 200th Street. Over the next several hours, Leak allegedly raped and beat the woman. He also reportedly stole some of the victim’s cash and food before leaving around 7:30 that morning, the victim’s family said.The victim then lay in the apartment for three more hours until a neighbor heard her cries for help.“She’s traumatized. Her life is not going to be the same, not at all,” the victim’s daughter said.The victim’s daughter did not want to be identified in an effort to protect her mother’s identity.The reported assault left the victim with several broken bones in her face, which lead to extensive swelling. Doctors spent several hours on Tuesday working to repair the damage. The victim’s daughter said doctors have given her mother a 25 percent chance of regaining her vision.“You can’t even open a can of pop around my mom now. She thinks it’s a gunshot. You can’t touch my mom’s arm. My mom is not the same,” the victim’s daughter said. “She was always very loving and wanting to hug, and now you can’t even touch her.”The victim’s daughter said Euclid police detectives used forensic evidence collected at the scene to quickly identify Leak as a suspect. Leak has an extensive criminal history dating back to 1989, including convictions for burglary. The victim’s daughter lauded the efforts of Euclid police, especially over the Easter holiday weekend.“We were worried about [delays] because it was a holiday. [Police said], ‘no, with this case we’re going through,’” the victim’s daughter said. “I was so thankful that Euclid PD was able to get him.”The victim’s daughter said her mother had only seen Leak once, but had never spoken to him. Her mother was always cautious and had lived at her apartment for more than a decade without any issues. Additionally, the daughter said she spoke to her mother the night before to check in on her.“For this to happen to somebody like her, it makes you think there’s no good people anymore,” the victim’s daughter said. “It doesn’t matter if you’re a good person because bad things, horrible things, will happen to you no matter what.”The victim has a long road to recovery and already faces mounting medical bills. The victim’s family has started a GoFundMe page in order to help cover some of the expected medical debt. As of Tuesday afternoon, more than 00 had been raised. 3161

A group of siblings are back together after being separated in foster care.A Texas couple with three biological children officially adopted the five siblings over a Zoom call in May, doubling the size of their family.Andi Bonura says she and her husband, Thomas, had been wanting to adopt after years of pregnancy issues. Their three existing children, Joey, Sadie and Daphne, were born premature. They also lost one child during a pregnancy and another died in the NICU.So, in 2017, the couple got licensed to become foster parents. Their first foster child was Bryson, who is now 2 years old. The couple then began fostering two of Bryson’s older siblings, David and Gabrielle.Eventually, the two final siblings, Thomas and Carter, started visiting the Bonura home and asked if they could also come live with them, according to Bonura.Bonura says that one day, she got a call saying their foster children’s biological parents were terminating their rights to the kids and they were given the option to adopt them. They said yes.Bonura says finally adopting the children was so freeing and felt wonderful.“We had been working so hard for years to get them all together, to bond as a family and it just feels so amazing to all of us, knowing we are a family, finally,” said Bonura.If you’re considering becoming a foster parent or adopting, Bonura says to do it if you can.“It will be the single most important and meaningful thing in your life,” she said. “The struggles to get to the place, your goal, is worth every tear. Because every struggle opens and teaches your heart how to help heal their precious innocent hearts. Watching these tiny people grow and heal brings hope that the future will bring much goodness to our broken world.” 1749