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As health officials around the world tack COVID-19 infection rates, two universities in the U.S. have partnered with Facebook to try to predict infections with real-time survey data.Dr. Alex Reinhart, an assistant teaching professor of statistics and data science at Carnegie Mellon University and a member of the Delphi Group, says that as health officials were struggling with testing capacity in the spring, they realized they might be able to predict infections by analyzing social media."They realized that if we could know when people are experiencing symptoms, they probably experience symptoms a few days before seeing a doctor. That's probably a few days before they get test results back and so that could potentially be an early indicator," Reinhart said.The Delphi Group reached out to Facebook, which agreed to help them survey its users."Every day Facebook takes a random sample of their active users that day in the United States and internationally and invites them through a little blurb at the top of their newsfeed that says, 'you can help coronavirus research' if you take this survey, which is voluntary," Reinhart said.Once Facebook users click on the survey button, it takes them to Carnegie Mellon's page for the survey. The University of Maryland also jumped on board with the project and conducted the survey for all international Facebook users.Facebook does not receive any survey data and only refers to the interested participants to the survey links. So far, more than 30 million people have taken the survey.Dr. Frauke Kreuter, who is working with the University of Maryland in Germany on the international side, says she's not aware of another global survey on COVID-19."There are two factors globally, I would say. One, is that many countries do not have good reporting systems and so they rely even more on alternative data sources. And the other one is, you want to compare yourself to other countries, but for that you need to have kind of the same measure in each country," Kreuter said. "And that's what we're lacking with a lot of measures right now because each country does there reporting slightly different."So far, Carnegie Mellon and the University of Maryland have been able to develop heat maps showing coronavirus symptoms across the country and world. Reinhart says they've been on par with COVID-19 infection rates being reported from health officials and says the survey has helped them identify patterns when it comes to mask-wearing and infection rates."In early September, we started asking questions about mask usage and we soon found that there is a striking difference in mask usage across the country," Reinhart said. "At the time, places that had lower mask usage seemed to be having a worse time in the pandemic."Reinhart says the survey results are helping them learn more about the effects of mask mandates. Researchers are hoping to continue the survey as the pandemic evolves — for example, they hope to begin gauging users on vaccine usage and skepticism in the coming months.The data is available for anyone to view and use."It's different from what you can get from cell phone mobility data that we see people use because we get to directly ask people what they're thinking, how they're feeling, what they're experiencing," Rinehart said. "We'd like as many people as possible to discover this data and use it for their own important research questions." 3430

As daylight fades against Baltimore's Eastern District station, the blue glow of giant monitors begins to fill a corner room.Inside, the screens inform a bold new prediction…police now think they can stop crime before it happens.The room is what the Baltimore Police Department calls its new Strategic Decision Support Center.In addition to one in the Eastern District, there is one in the recently renovated Western; both rooms bringing technology once hubbed at headquarters down to the street level in two of the most historically violent areas of the city.Commissioner Darryl De Sousa says these rooms will go live in June and at full operation will have police working alongside analysts to study the various streams of data from the department.They will combine existing data like CCTV cameras and past crime incidents with new tech like freshly installed license plate readers on squad cars and eventually, gunshot detection through the new ShotSpotter contract.All of it will then pass through a computer algorithm which will predict what crime could happen next and more importantly, where.Simply put, the goal of these rooms to forecast Baltimore's felonies."I am very optimistic,” Commissioner Darryl De Sousa said while showing the room to WMAR 2 News, “I am a very optimistic person period, but this center, it embraces technology and that is one thing that has been missing in the police department for years. "If this technology is the missing piece then it is in Chicago where Baltimore saw where and how it could fit."I am absolutely convinced, if they attack it like we did here in Chicago, they'll see positive results from it," said Superintendent of Chicago Police Eddie Johnson.Johnson swears by what is called predictive policing.WMAR television station traveled to Chicago to see how this policing philosophy works.In early 2017, CPD built rooms like they now have in Baltimore.Since then, Chicago has shown consistent violent crime reduction month after month, results Johnson says they began to see immediately."We didn't expect to see that kind of progress that quickly but we have,” Johnson tells WMAR 2 News, “So every district we have implemented it in, they've had at least somewhere between 22 and 30 percent reductions in gun violence."Those gains are even greater in Englewood on Chicago's south side. District 7 is traditionally the most violent area of this city, not unlike the Eastern and Western Districts of Baltimore and is where the predictive policing philosophy first went online.So far this year the gains CPD is seeing in the neighborhood are impressive: a 55 percent drop in shootings, a 43 percent drop so far in homicides.Commanders on the south side say a lot of it is being in the right place at the right time.It is a deployment strategy made possible by the District 7 Strategic Decision Support Center where a computer algorithm figures in past crime trends and data with real time camera and shooting data for the area; even locations of businesses, roadways and weather are figured in as well. That algorithm along with the aid of analysts spits out hot maps for the next patrol shift.Those maps include red boxes of 500 square foot areas the computer identified as high-risk locations for the upcoming shift.Police Officers are then directed to make sure those boxes get repeated attention while on patrol."All of us have that same philosophy: smarter policing results in fewer victims," said LAPD Deputy Chief Sean Malinowski.Malinowski is the architect of this predictive philosophy and started it in Los Angeles, built it in Chicago and is now on the ground and helping its launch in Baltimore.While the way the data is shared and calculated can be complex, the concept is simple: if crime is defined as its intersection with opportunity, then remove the opportunity.[This whole program is based on the concept that human activity is inherently predictable?] “Yes,” Malinowski answered, “And it is…and if you look at it over time, you can track month to month where the hotspots are and if you animate that you'll see it persists, it persists, it persists. All we're doing in this is try and get out in front of it so that before it happens, we prevent it and we are disrupting these patterns.”And Malinowski says they disrupt it not by flooding neighborhoods with police or mass arrests, but rather simply asking the officers to be visible.The predictive model chooses instead to have meaningful interactions with residents in the zone before the computer's prediction can become a crime."When it is working in its best form, the officers will respond to that. They will spend ten or 15 minutes having some kind of community interaction or investigating something in that area and then the criminal is denied that opportunity to commit the crime in the first place."The proof Chicago says is in its numbers, not just in Englewood, but city wide as predictive policing is now being practiced in more than half of Chicago's 22 police districts and is credited with a near 30 percent drop year over year in each murders and shootings.The early success in Chicago is why former Baltimore Police Commissioner Kevin Davis originally recruited Malinowski and his theory to Baltimore and why Darryl De Sousa is about to implement it.De Sousa visited Chicago and Superintendent Johnson just more than two months before its Baltimore launch."I have also told him, look, the technology that we've implemented, that is one piece of it but it has proven to be successful so they cannot go wrong with trying it out," Johnson said, "Let's face it, each city is different in some ways but crime is crime. So, if it can work in Chicago and L.A. and Baltimore, I am convinced it can work anywhere in the country."De Sousa likes what he sees in Chicago and is happy to be the third major American city to flip the switch on this predictive theory.In Baltimore right now, both district’s rooms are complete but some of the technology like ShotSpotter is a month or so away and analysts are still being trained.Still, for the commissioner, the forecast looks bright."I am very excited about it,” De Sousa said, “I am very encouraged about it and I am gonna remain optimistic."But not everyone in Baltimore share’s the commissioner’s view, the predictive policing theory has it’s critics, especially in a city that is struggling to repair its relationship between police and community."We've been doing different versions of that for decades,” Leaders of a Beautiful Struggle Lawrence Grandpre said, “Having more data to do that is great but for some folks that feels like shifting deck chairs on the titanic."The director of research for the Baltimore grassroots think tank says even new data can still drive old bias."We have a system of policing that has more arrests in poor neighborhoods, more arrests in black neighborhoods and all that data is going to appear on that algorithm and it is just going to look objective that we need to increase policing in black neighborhoods, we've already done that for decades."And that's the concern for Grandpre and so many others in Baltimore.There is a deep seeded distrust between police and community in both the areas of the city where police are beginning this predictive program.It is a fractured relationship Malinowski is fully aware was further stressed by the explosive trial of the Gun Trace Task Force."There is a lot of work to do in re-building the trust but I am optimistic about that,” Malinowski said, “I think as they show success, they will be able to come out and engage and then see the police in a different light. That is what my hope is."He is optimistic because there is a blueprint.On Chicago's south side, traditionally its most violent, CPD says this predictive policing model is working because it has the buy-in from the community.The commander of District 7 made sure his similarly wary residents not only knew about what they were doing, but how they were doing it."Well I brought them in and talked to them about it,” Commander Kenneth Johnson said, “And with a lot of the community residents we actually show what was going on with the room. We have to be open and transparent in order to build.And Baltimore Police say the same is happening here. Commissioner Darryl De Sousa says he is committed to keeping these new tools completely transparent. He says he needs the support from the community in order for this to work."We want the community to know we are not trying to hide anything from them at all,” De Sousa said, “We want to bring them here, we want to bring them into the actual room, the strategic decision support center right here and give them a walking tour so they know exactly what we are gonna do. I am trying to build trust here." 8805

An epic day on the water... lots of sharks, got some good data, excellent crew. #sharkspies #trackingnotslacking #treasurethesedays pic.twitter.com/4nFhiCV7F2— Chris Lowe (@CSULBsharklab) October 15, 2020 218

ANDERSON, Ind. — A convicted killer already serving two life sentences without parole and accused of killing a fellow prisoner last summer told a Madison County judge this week he will keep killing people until he's given the death penalty.Tommy Holland, 45, made the statement Tuesday during a hearing in Madison Circuit Court. Madison County Prosecutor Rodney Cummings said Holland had been expected to plead guilty to the Aug. 9, 2019 stabbing death of Clifford Bagget, 28. In exchange for the plea, Holland was expected to receive his third life sentence, Cummings said.The stabbing happened inside the Pendleton Correctional Facility. Holland was serving two life sentences for murder out of Marion County. Bagget, of Florida, was serving time for aggravated battery, battery, and possession of methamphetamine, according to court records.Instead, the scene inside the Madison County courtroom was much different."His lawyer said [Holland] wanted to make a statement and that it was coming against the advice of counsel," Cummings said. "What he basically said was, if you don't give me the death penalty I'm going to keep killing people until you give it to me."The hearing did not proceed with the entering of a guilty plea. Instead, the judge ordered Holland to undergo a competency evaluation.Cummings said he will consider the unusual request but there are other factors under consideration as well."I don't want to waste taxpayer money," Cummings said.In addition, the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago has not upheld a death penalty sentence brought to them on appeal in 11 years so the likelihood of a sentence of death being carried out against Holland is slim, Cummings said.Holland is currently being housed in segregation at Indiana State Prison in Michigan City, Cummings said. Cummings has reached out to the LaPorte County prosecutor to warn him of the threats made by Holland and will also be writing a letter to the Indiana Department of Correction to warn them of the threats as well.In addition to the two murders he's been convicted of and the third case that he has been charged in, Cummings said Holland is also suspected of additional murders.This story was first reported by Bob Blake at WRTV in Indianapolis, Indiana. 2261

An early analysis of census data shows California and New York may lose a seat in the House, while Florida would gain two. This could mean Florida in the near future would have more electoral votes than New York.The analysis was done by William Frey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, a nonprofit public policy organization, based on population estimates from mid-2020 released by the Census Bureau.Frey said the estimates released by the Census Bureau show that between July 2019 and July 2020, the population in the U.S. grew by .35%. That’s the lowest annual population growth rate since the turn of the last century, and that could mean the decade 2010-2020 may have the lowest decade growth rate in centuries.This low rate of growth and some “educated estimates” from Frey on new state-level data, could mean that seven states gain representatives in Congress and ten states lose some.One result of the Census is calculating the number of seats in the House of Representatives a state should have. Every decade, the Census Bureau adjusts the number of seats each state receives based on changes in population, the process is called reapportionment.Frey estimates that Texas will gain three representatives in the House, Florida wil gain two, and Arizona, Montana, Colorado, North Carolina and Oregon will gain one. Meanwhile, Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Rhode Island could all lose one representative, according to Frey’s estimates.Changing the number of seats in the House also changes how many votes the state gets in the Electoral College; electoral votes are the number of seats a state has in the House plus two senators.California currently has 55 electoral votes, with the next highest as Texas with 38 votes currently. New York and Florida are next, with 29 each; if New York were to lose one and Florida gain two, it would be the first time Florida had more votes than New York and would make Florida the third most represented state in the House.“This reapportionment will also affect the Electoral College in future presidential elections. There are a mix of “red” and “blue” states among those gaining and losing seats. Thus, it is difficult to predict how these changes will benefit future Republican and Democratic presidential candidates,” Frey wrote in his analysis.Frey’s estimates are based on early data shared by the Census Bureau. The complete 2020 Census will not be released until sometime early next year. 2524

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