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The roaring American economy will probably sink into a recession before President Trump stands for re-election in 2020.At least that's the view of Ray Dalio, the billionaire investor who predicted the 2008 financial crisis."The probability of a recession prior to the next presidential election would be relatively high, 70% or something like that," Dalio said on Wednesday evening during an appearance at the Harvard Kennedy School's Institute of Politics.  471

The RV industry has seen a significant increase in rentals and sales over the summer. One company, RVshare, reported more than a 1,000% increase in rentals.Now, the trend seems to be moving beyond just a summer vacation alternative. Some are turning to it as a new way to home-school and work during this pandemic.Some families are turning these RVs into their primary or secondary homes."I think it is difficult for families to be cooped up," said Julie Partridge.Partridge was already considering making the switch to RV life before the pandemic, but after five months of social distancing and quarantining in her home, she decided to finally do it.She sold the family home and hit the road to live, home-school her kids and work from an RV."Obviously our camper is much smaller than our house,” said Partridge. “Substantially smaller, but you have this vast open world available to you. You feel less cooped up in this camper than you do in this 3,000 square foot house."She also feels the move to full-time RV life this fall will also give her kids a unique educational opportunity."We really want to see the national parks,” said Partridge. “I want my kids to do the park ranger program. I want to use that as their science and social studies curriculum from the road. So, we are really excited about those parts."The Partridge family is just one of many either committing to or newly considering RV life in the fall, according to a survey done by the RV rental company RVshare."We have, from our survey, seen that over 30% of people are considering homeschooling from the road and over 40% of people are considering working from the road and that is something that is new to the industry," RVshare Jon Gray."You have school not opening on time, you have a lot of employers turning to work from anywhere models for the extended future and those things have made it to where RVs are appealing deep into the fall," said Gray.The pandemic has changed so much in our lives. Many people are looking to get away from the uncertainty and continued concern with it. This seems to be one way for some to do that."It is saving us money, it is teaching them lessons, it has really been kind of refreshing," said Partridge. 2224

The top U.S. public health agency stirred confusion by posting — and then taking down — an apparent change in its position on how easily the coronavirus can spread from person to person through the air.But officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say their position has not really changed and that the post last week on the agency’s website was an error that has been taken down.It was “an honest mistake” that happened when a draft update was posted before going through a full editing and approval process, said Dr. Jay Butler, the CDC’s deputy director for infectious diseases.The post suggested that the agency believes the virus can hang in the air and spread over an extended distance. But the agency continues to believe larger and heavier droplets that come from coughing or sneezing are the primary means of transmission, Butler said.Most CDC guidance about social distancing is built around that idea, saying that about 6 feet is a safe buffer between people who are not wearing masks.In interviews, CDC officials have acknowledged growing evidence that the virus can sometimes be transmitted on even smaller, aerosolized particles or droplets that spread over a wider area. Certain case clusters have been tied to events in which the virus appeared to have spread through the air in, for example, a choir practice. But such incidents did not appear to be common.Public health experts urge people to wear masks, which can stop or reduce contact with both larger droplets and aerosolized particles.But for months, agency officials said little about aerosolized particles. So when the CDC quietly posted an update Friday that discussed the particles in more detail, the agency’s position appeared to have changed. The post said the virus can remain suspended in the air and drift more than 6 feet. It also emphasized the importance of indoor ventilation and seemed to describe the coronavirus as the kind of germ that can spread widely through the air.The post caused widespread discussion in public health circles because of its implications. It could mean, for example, that hospitals might have to place infected people in rooms that are specially designed to prevent air from flowing to other parts of the hospital.But the CDC is not advising any changes in how far people stay away from each other, how they are housed at hospitals or other measures, Butler said.The CDC has come under attack for past revisions of guidance during the pandemic, some of which were driven by political pressure by the Trump administration.Butler said there was no external political pressure behind the change in this instance. “This was an internal issue,. And we’re working hard to address it and make sure it doesn’t happen again,” he said.In a statement released Monday, the CDC said the revisions to the “How COVID-19 Spreads” page happened “without appropriate in-house technical review.”“We are reviewing our process and tightening criteria for review of all guidance and updates before they are posted to the CDC website,” the statement said.At least one expert said the episode could further chip away at public confidence in the CDC.“The consistent inconsistency in this administration’s guidance on COVID-19 has severely compromised the nation’s trust in our public health agencies,” said Dr. Howard Koh, a Harvard University public health professor who was a high-ranking official in the Department of Health and Human Services during the Obama administration.“To rectify the latest challenge, the CDC must acknowledge that growing scientific evidence indicates the importance of airborne transmission through aerosols, making mask wearing even more critical as we head into the difficult fall and winter season,” Koh said in a statement.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 3964

The Trump administration plans to raise pending tariffs on 0 billion in Chinese goods to 25% from 10%, a source familiar with discussions confirmed to CNN.The news was first reported by Bloomberg.The move, which is not finalized and could change, according to the source, comes as the United States and China remain locked in a trade war. Talks between US and Chinese officials have done little to ease tensions.The United States has already imposed 25% tariffs on Chinese goods worth billion. China immediately responded with its own tariffs on US goods worth billion.A second round of tariffs on products worth billion could take effect as soon as this week.US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer earlier this month ratcheted up tensions when he released a list of thousands of additional Chinese exports worth 0 billion that could face 10% tariffs after a public comment period. It included fruit and vegetables, handbags, refrigerators, rain jackets and baseball gloves.Those tariffs, which might now be steeper, could go into effect as soon as September. 1108

The U.S. again broke its daily record for new confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Wednesday, as local health departments recorded 50,000 new confirmed cases of the virus, according to a database kept by Johns Hopkins.The previous record was set Tuesday when health departments reported about 45,400 new cases.The figures highlight a continued spike in cases throughout the country over the past few weeks. Prior to the recent peak, the highest daily increase in confirmed cases came on April 24, when health departments reported about 36,400 new cases. The U.S. has recorded at least 38,900 new cases every day for the last week.(John's Hopkins)Because the Johns Hopkins database is reliant on reporting from local health departments, the data doesn't necessarily reflect a patient's day of infection. Daily case numbers are often higher mid-week because some local health departments or test centers may be closed on weekends.It's not just cases that are on the rise. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, use of hospital beds, ICU beds and invasive ventilators have all risen in recent weeks after months of falling resource use.Many states have either "paused" or chosen to take steps back in their reopening process as cases and hospitalizations linked to the virus continue to rise.On Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci — the government's top expert on infectious diseases — called the recent spike in cases "disturbing," and said that he could foresee the U.S. reporting up to 100,000 new COVID-19 cases a day if recent trends continue. 1593