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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — After the polls close on Election Night, ABC News and the other major networks will start projecting winners and “calling” races, in some cases well before the official vote counts are finalized.They’ll do it by relying on data from a New Jersey-based company called Edison Research.Edison provides exit polls, survey data, and vote counts for ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN. The company has provided data for this group of networks, known as the National Election Pool, since 2004.“We know what we're doing is really, really important,” said the company’s president Larry Rosin.In certain races, networks will project a winner shortly after the polls close, sometimes before state election officials report any official vote totals. Such a projection is nicknamed an “insta-call” in the news business.Networks only make insta-calls in races where Edison’s exit polls and telephone surveys in the days leading up to the election show a decisive winner, Rosin said.ABC News only issues a projection when statistical models overseen by a team of mathematicians and elections experts show a winner with 99.5 percent confidence.Each network has its own team of experts that crunch Edison’s numbers. Fox News makes projections based on data provided by the Associated Press.When a race is close, the network decision teams turn to more complicated math.“It’s a matter of looking at that historical vote all the way down to the precinct or county level and comparing how the vote is coming in, in that state up to that point,” said Rosin.On Election Night, Edison has thousands of employees fanned out in virtually every county across the nation, monitoring the vote count as it comes in and manually reporting the totals when necessary. There are other employees whose job is to check the numbers for accuracy.Edison’s data helps networks understand how preliminary vote totals compare to the way regions voted in the past, which is an important metric in an election forecast.“If every precinct was just a little bit more Republican than it had been four years ago, you have a good sense that all the other precincts that are similar will likely be a little more Republican, and the Republican will do a little better than four years ago,” Rosin said as an example.Using those kinds of trends, the networks then forecast how many ballots are still left to be counted, and what kind of ballots those are -- either in-person early votes, in-person votes on Election Day, or mail-in votes.At that point it comes down to a formula, comparing the known reported votes to the outstanding votes a candidate is likely to gain.“It’s a very high pressure project, but I’m proud to say that no network has made an incorrect call since the 2004 cycle,” which was Edison’s first year providing election data to the networks, Rosin said.The company started doing this after the debacle in 2000, when networks incorrectly called the race in Florida between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Rosin said a lot of things have changed since then.“The pressure to make calls correctly really superseded the pressure to call quickly,” he said.This year could be a challenging one to forecast, Rosin said, with so many more mail-in ballots because of the pandemic. Mail-in ballots take longer to process because election workers have to compare the signature on the mail-in ballot against the signature a voter has on file.For that reason, Rosin said it may take a while for the networks to call races in certain key battleground states that start their counting process late, like Pennsylvania and Michigan. 3594

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Aaron Juarez sat stone-faced as a public defender tried to convince a South Bay judge he's not a flight risk; especially not to Mexico. The deputy district attorney says Juarez, 20, is a gang member recently sentenced to probation on a firearms conviction. The judge ordered him held without bail for violating his probation, but he's wanted in Tijuana for allegedly murdering his stepmom. "They used to have a good relationship before, but after he starts with his drug problems and his gang problems, she was kind of, scared," said Erika Gonzalez, the victim's sister.RELATED: Man suspected of killing, burying stepmother in Tijuana backyard may be in U.S.After getting an anonymous tip, the family of Fernanda Gonzalez Serrano found her body buried in the backyard of her home in Tijuana last month. She'd been shot in the head. They'd been searching for her for weeks. Around the time she disappeared, Gonzalez' husband showed up at a hospital in San Diego with a gunshot wound. He declined to talk with the media Monday afternoon. "It really hurts that they can support someone like that. Even my sister's husband was here supporting the murder of my sister and that really hurts me," said Gonzalez. RELATED: Man suspected of killing stepmother found in Tijuana backyard arrestedThe family's attorney says it could be at least 60 days before Juarez is sent back to Mexico to face murder charges.Gonzalez' sister says she'll keep fighting."She was a really good sister, she was our older sister. She was always caring about the family, and she was the one who was always putting our family together, and now she's not here." Chula Vista Police say they arrested Juarez after he showed up to a meeting his probation officer last week with drugs on him. 1784

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Airbnb is tightening its restrictions after five people were shot and killed during party in Northern California.Airbnb's CEO Brian Chesky tweeted Saturday that the San Francisco-based company is expanding its manual screening of "high risk" reservations and will remove users who violate policies banning parties."Starting today, we are banning 'party houses' and we are redoubling our efforts to combat unauthorized parties and get rid of abusive host and guest conduct, including conduct that leads to the terrible events we saw in Orinda," Chesky tweeted. 586

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Albertsons LLC, Safeway Inc., and The Vons Companies, Inc. have agreed to pay at least 0,000 after an investigation by the state Department of Alcohol Beverage Control (ABC) over illegal business practices.The investigation stemmed from the grocery stores' "Monopoly" game promotion, in which customers received "Monopoly" coupons toward discounts and potentially prizes. ABC said the violations arose out of sales of alcohol included in the 2018 promotion.The "Monopoly" promotion was held at Albertsons stores, including Albertsons, Safeway, Vons, Pac N Save, and Pavilions locations.The promotion advertised certain beer brands by MillerCoors as part of the game. Customers received additional chances to win prizes if they purchased those brands, according to ABC."This particular violation gave these retailers a competitive advantage by offering consumers a gift or premium for purchasing alcoholic beverage products," ABC Director Jacob Appelsmith said in a release.ABC filed action against nearly 600 stores across California, accusing the companies of violation several regulations. The agency says the "California Alcoholic Beverage Control Act prohibits the giving away of premiums, gifts or free goods in connection with the sale or marketing of alcoholic beverages."The act prevents alcohol companies from engaging in anti-competitive behavior and gaining an unfair advantage.As part of the probe, the three companies agreed to pay 0,000 in fines, 0,000 due within 30 days and the remaining 0,000 stayed on the condition the companies violate the similar regulations over the next two years. 1643

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - After serving in the Korean War 67 Years ago, a San Diego veteran is preparing for the trip of a lifetime with Honor Flight San Diego. Chuck Willey says he's looking forward to experiencing the Washington, D.C. memorials with other veterans. "He mentioned about being accepted to the Honor Flight. But said the only problem is I don't have a uniform, and I said oh Chuck, I can help you with that!" said Patricia McKeon Suter, a relative of Willey. She put a call out for help on one of her Facebook groups - Buy Nothing Navajo, San Diego, CA - asking if anyone had a Korean War-era dress. Three days later, a neighbor answered her call."The reason why she really wanted to do it is her grandfather served in the Korean War in the Marines, and she didn't get to honor him, he passed away a while ago, and this was her way of honoring him. It brought tears to my eyes, which it's doing right now," said McKeon Suter.The neighbor found a uniform in Willey's size, pants, and a jacket.Willey's daughter continued the quest on eBay, where someone ultimately donated a hat and tie after learning Willey's story."Overwhelmed, just very, very thankful for all the help," said Mckeon Suter.Willey was also overwhelmed by the generosity of strangers. "I can't believe that people would do that," said Willey.Willey says he is proud of his service and grateful he'll once again be able to wear a uniform for this special occasion. Honor Flight San Diego will return on Sunday, October 6 to the San Diego International Airport; the public is invited to welcome them home:Where: Terminal 2When: Arrive by 3:20 p.m. (one hour ahead of flight)Carpooling is recommended 1681