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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The Golden State Killer crime spree may have ties to San Diego, according to District Attorney Summer Stephan.Investigators say DNA evidence tied Joseph DeAngelo to the series of killings, rapes and burglaries that occurred between 1976 and 1986 across California.Stephan said Thursday that unsolved cases may be linked to the crimes. 361

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The battle between rideshare companies and drivers' unions is on the ballot in the form of Proposition 22. It's a way for companies like Uber and Lyft to push back against California's Assembly Bill 5, which classifies drivers as employees with benefits instead of independent contractors.The gig companies are fighting the state in court, so they haven't been following those rules since the law went into effect on Jan. 1. Now, the fate of drivers will be in the hands of California voters on Nov. 3.The Yes on 22 campaign is backed by Uber, Lyft, and Doordash.It would classify drivers as independent contractors.Drivers could work towards a stipend to help purchase their own health insurance.They would also get some hourly pay, but only during what's called "engaged time." Yes on 22 says engaged time starts from the moment a driver accepts a ride until they drop the passenger off. It does not include time drivers spend waiting for their next passenger."If you were to compensate for all the time the driver spent on an app, you'd have to force them to accept every ride that comes across which would eliminate their flexibility to choose when they want to work and how long they want to work," said Vetter.Driver Al Porche says that's exactly why he's voting yes."Times are great right now," said Porche. "I've been driving all this year. I switched over from transporting people to delivering food and meals or groceries."According to the New York Times, rideshare companies have spent more than 0 million promoting the campaign, making it the costliest in state history.A "No" vote on Prop 22 would continue the current ruling under AB 5, reclassifying drivers as employees with a swath of rights and protections.Tonje Ettesvoll is against Prop 22, warning it's deceptive if you don't look closely."When you look at all these ads on TV and social media, that is Uber and Lyft's voice, said Ettesvoll. "That is not the driver's voice."She's been driving full-time for four years in San Diego and says it's only gotten worse."They have cut my rate many, many times to the point where I'm driving from 40 hours a week to 60 with the same pay."Nicole Moore with Rideshare Drivers United says about 40% of the job is waiting for your next ride -- time Prop 22 wouldn't pay up for in terms of pay or benefit because it's not considered engaged time."This is work. Just because you're a cashier in a store and you don't have somebody checking out doesn't mean you're not paid," said Moore. "It is definitely helping the billionaires and the people who are running these companies but it is not helping the drivers."The Yes on 22 campaign says if the proposition doesn't pass rides will be harder to find and prices will go up. Gig companies have even threatened to leave the state entirely. 2826

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The message from nurses and caregivers Tuesday morning was clear, "it's a question of priorities for entire healthcare system." Frustration and anger built after a 27-month contract renewal was signed by Palomar Health's CEO, Diane Hansen. The contract details a base salary close to million, with potential of earning bonuses, increasing that amount. Frontline workers argue that because COVID-19 led to an increase of patients, and layoffs of caregivers and nurses, "the board should have invested in resources and more protective equipment. Some of the PPE is not even medical grade, and everyone who's been laid off should be brought back," said representative for California's nurses association, Sarah Gurling. Gurling joined other reps and nurses in a protest at Palomar Medical Center, arguing funds should have been allocated towards other resources within their facilities."Caregivers and nurses are the heart of the hospital. We know what's best for patients and each other. The hospital executives and the Palomar board has lost sight of that." Meahwhile, Palomar's health board chair, Richard Engel, stands behind his decision. He said Hansen has done a tremendous job and credits much of the hospital's success through her work. Engel added her salary is comparable to other hospital's CEO's.Registered nurse, Sue Phillips, said their efforts will continue no matter what. "We want the community to know we're here, we're going to keep fighting for them." 1501

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The Central San Diego Black Chamber of Commerce announced a new relief fund for Black owned business meant to keep them afloat during the pandemic.They held a press conference Sunday afternoon at Waterfront Park announcing the Black Business Relief Grant Fund.Lance Growth, member of the chamber and CEO of Growth 1031, organized the press conference and says this is going to fill the gap where the government's Paycheck Protection Program fell short, "for the COVID crisis yes this is a light at the end of the tunnel."Growth says about 95% of black owned businesses did not get federal money."I don’t want to say insulting but disheartening where you watch this crisis unfold then you see your government say, 'Hey we know how bad this is we are going to provide you help,' but then you read about the businesses that [didn't get] PPP, and it just folds into the social unrest," he said.He said the grants and microloans will pay for anything from rent to supplies to payroll.Growth said they weren't going to make the application nearly as time consuming and invasive as the PPP, "we’re just going to try and get you this money as fast as possible because everyone is hurting from this pandemic."Applications open Wednesday, June 17, and priority will be given to small disadvantaged businesses in low income neighborhoods.Specific criteria for the grants will be defined Wednesday, according to the chamber.They are expecting a very high demand, compared to the amount they can give out. "One of the big things we announced is a goal that we want to raise million dollars in 60 days," Growth said, urging San Diegans to use this opportunity to get involved and make a difference.He said supporting black owned businesses help them thrive and remove barriers for the next generation. 1817