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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

On World AIDS Day, a resurfaced photo on Facebook is reminding people of the impact the epidemic had on the LGBTQ community.An image posted by Paul Davis, identified on his Facebook and LinkedIn as the national advocacy coordinator for nonprofit Housing Works, has garnered more than 2,600 reactions and thousands of shares. The image shows a photo from 1993 by Eric Luse and was originally published in the San Francisco Chronicle.The photo in his post depicts the San Francisco Gay Men's Chorus. Seven of the people in the photo are shown wearing white and the rest are in black. According to the caption accompanying the photo, and other articles, the people in white represented the remaining living members of the original choir and those in black represented those who were lost to AIDS at the time the photo was taken.Though 25 years old, the photo still resonates with people, as seen in the comments on Davis' post."I am a member of SFGMC and so is my husband," said one commenter, Michael Jay Stauffer Joyce. "If I remember this picture was taken in the early 90’s. I believe maybe 91, We did a Re-creation of the picture in the spring of 2018, we have a section of the course called the fifth section which is dedicated to all those who have passed that were members. It has reached over 300 following members, and most have died from AIDS."According to the Foundation for AIDS Research, at the end of 1993, there were more than 360,000 reported cases of AIDS in the U.S. and more than 234,000 deaths as a result of the illness. More than 1.1 million people are living with AIDS today, and one in seven people are unaware they are infected, according to HIV.gov. However, the estimated number of annual infections in the U.S. declined 8 percent from 2010 to 2015, from 41,800 to 38,500.World AIDS Day is observed internationally every December 1 to raise awareness of AIDS and HIV, the virus that can cause the infection.  1981

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) - Amid the investigation into the Youtube attacker's motive, 10News is learning more about her frustrations over the site's policies, specifically the fight over ad dollars.Recently, YouTube began requirements for creators to receive ad revenue, including at least a thousand subscribers.Owen Hemsath runs Owen Video, a local consulting business helping companies and YouTube creators craft their videos. While Hemsath condemns Tuesday's attacks, the frustrations of YouTube shooter Nasim Aghdam are familiar.RELATED STORIES: 565

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) - A man died Thursday in an Oceanside home after a fistfight with a relative, police said.Officers were called to the home in the 600 block of Arthur Ave. at 7:17 a.m. because of an argument between two men in the front yard. When police arrived, they found Nestor Jurado, 37, not breathing. Jurado was pronounced dead at the scene."It appears he died as a result of the injuries he sustained during the fight," Lt. Kedrick Sadler said. Police arrested 35-year-old Joel Cardona and booked him into the Vista Detention Facility on a murder charge.Sadler said the reason for the fight is unknown and no weapons were found at the scene. Jurado's sister told 10News Cardona is their mother's cousin. 763

One Powerball ticket sold in Pennsylvania has matched all six numbers.The single winning ticket is worth 6.7 million -- the eighth-largest pot in the game's history, officials said in a statement. The winning numbers for the jackpot Saturday were: 22-57-59-60-66, and Powerball 7."The ticket matched all five white balls and the Powerball to win the jackpot worth an estimated 6.7 million; 3.9 million cash value," Powerball said.The odds of winning Powerball are 1 in 292.2 million.Three other tickets -- sold in California, Missouri and Texas -- matched all five white balls in the drawing.The ticket sold in Texas won a million prize because it included a Power Play option, it said. 706

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